Ohio State's QB situation presents College Football Playoff committee with unique case to consider

Ohio State's QB situation presents College Football Playoff committee with unique case to consider originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

How will the College Football Playoff committee treat Ohio State?

That's the most intriguing question for the first set of playoff rankings, which will be unveiled at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Buckeyes slipped to No. 11 in the AP Poll and No. 10 in the Coaches Poll after a 30-18 loss to USC on Saturday.

It was the first game for Ohio State (6-2, 4-1 Big Ten) with freshman quarterback Luke Fahey, who started in place of injured starter Julian Sayin, a 2025 Heisman Trophy finalist. Sayin is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing arm, and the Buckeyes could potentially present a multi-layered debate for the committee in the weeks ahead.

How will the CFP committee view the Buckeyes in November?

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How QB situation affects Ohio State's CFP ranking debate

We're not there yet, but Ohio State could turn into a variation of the Florida State debate in 2023. That season, the Seminoles were 10-0 and ranked No. 4 in the CFP rankings before quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury in Week 11.

The committee telegraphed what was to come later by dropping the Seminoles behind Washington in the rankings the following week. Alabama (12-1) would leap-frog Florida State (13-0) in the final rankings after the Seminoles won the ACC championship with underwhelming backup quarterback Brock Glenn. This was the most controversial snub of the four-team era.

Could something similar happen here? How does the committee view the Buckeyes with Fahey as the starter?

Fahey finished 21 of 38 for 260 yards and a TD in the loss to the Trojans. The chemistry with Heisman Trophy contender Jeremiah Smith continues to be over-analyzed. Smith had 10 receptions for 83 yards and a TD. Fahey was 6 of 20 (30%) for 151 yards on passes of 10 yards or more against USC, according to PFF.com.

For comparison, Sayin was 50 of 85 (58.8%) for an average of 176 yards per game with 11 TDs and three interceptions with that split in seven games. How Fahey throws the ball down the field in Ohio State's remaining games will play a role in how the Buckeyes are treated by the committee.

This isn't the same as Florida State, however. Ohio State has four regular-season games remaining against Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan. Fahey will have more time to develop in that role. In a 12-team format the Buckeyes have more runway to show that they are a legitimate playoff team with Fahey at quarterback.

It can be said, and we will go there, that Fahey was not the primary reason Ohio State lost against USC. The Buckeyes had a season-high 11 penalties. USC scored 30 points, the most of any team against Ohio State since Matt Patricia took over as defensive coordinator last season. The Buckeyes out-rushed the Trojans 204-116 and still managed 438 total yards. USC was just better in a gotta-have-it-game for that program.

Plus, backup quarterbacks are the story of the Big Ten contenders anyway. UCLA is unbeaten with Ty Dieffenbach, who took over for Nico Iamaleava. Indiana benched Josh Hoover in Week 8 for Grant Wilson, who led a 23-16 overtime victory against Minnesota. Iowa has used Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski.

MORE: USC's upset of Ohio State shakes up Big Ten race

Ohio State's strength of schedule

This should matter more than the quarterback situation. Ohio State's brutal schedule was a talking point during the summer, and to this point the Buckeyes are 2-2 against teams that are currently ranked in the AP Top 25.

Ohio State has victories against No. 6 Indiana and No. 21 Iowa and losses against No. 10 Texas and No. 18 USC. All four of those games were on the road. That has to be taken into account in this evaluation.

The Buckeyes' remaining opponents have a combined record of 21-11, and there is a small chance either Oregon or Northwestern could crack the top 25 the initial CFP rankings.

Ohio State remaining schedule

Ohio State also has just one loss in Big Ten play. It is third in the Big Ten standings behind No. 5 UCLA (8-0, 5-0) and No. 6 Indiana (8-1, 5-1), but the head-to-head tiebreaker is in their favor with the Hoosiers. If the Buckeyes win out, then pending a quirky three-way tiebreaker with Indiana and UCLA, Ohio State would have a good chance at returning to the Big Ten championship game on Dec. 5.

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Ohio State with two losses vs. a third loss

That is one way to say there is no reason to overreact to where Ohio State is in the rankings now. If the Buckeyes finished 10-2 in the regular season, then they will likely make their eighth playoff appearance in school history.

Remember, Ohio State has not lost three regular-season games since 2011 – a bridge year with interim coach Luke Fickell between the Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer eras.

A third loss, however, would likely be elimination. USC (7-2) and Texas (6-2) have head-to-head victories against the Buckeyes and could be involved in that pile-up.

Texas is one spot ahead of Ohio State in the AP Poll. The Buckeyes are one spot higher in the coaches poll. The committee proved last year it values head-to-head in these debates, and the Longhorns beat the Buckeyes 24-23 on Sept. 12. That result absolutely could come up later.

Remember the three-loss argument Texas tried to make with coach Steve Sarkisian last year? The Longhorns lost 14-7 to No. 3 Ohio State in the season opener on Aug. 30, 2025 in a blockbuster season opener. Texas lost to Florida and Georgia in SEC play, and despite a considerable strength of schedule were left out of the playoff. Ohio State coach Ryan Day could find himself in the same situation if the Buckeyes drop another game – even if it's in the Big Ten championship game.

There has not been a three-loss at-large team in the CFP that did not play in a conference championship. Alabama lost the SEC championship game and made the CFP as a 10-3 team. Keep an eye on where Ohio State is in relation to the Crimson Tide (6-2) and LSU (6-2) in the two-loss pileup. The Tigers are another team that could vault past the Buckeyes if they beat Texas and Alabama the next two weeks.

All that can be silenced Saturday against Oregon. The Ducks have a backup quarterback, too, in Dylan Raiola, but this game has enough juice to it because every game feels like an elimination game for Ohio State from this point forward. Fahey needs to play better, but so does the entire team, in November.