No. 10 BYU vs. TCU: What the Advanced Analytics Predict for Saturday

On Saturday, no. 10 BYU will take on the TCU Horned Frogs in Forth Worth. BYU has not beaten TCU in Forth Worth since 2006. However, the Cougars are favored in this game after dominating the Horned Frogs a season ago. TCU, meanwhile, is off to a 2-2 starting including an 0-2 record against Power Four tams. In this article, we'll look the advanced analytics projections for BYU.

SP+

SP+, created by Bill Connelly of ESPN, gives BYU a 64% chance to win with an expected final score of 28-22. The Cougars are favored by 6.5 points in this game, so SP+ and the oddsmakers are on the same page.

SP+ views BYU as a well-balanced team. The Cougars are ranked 17th overall in SP+. BYU's offense ranks 25th in offensive efficiency, 21st in defensive efficiency, and 27th in special teams.

TCU, meanwhile, ranks 42nds in SP+. The Horned Frogs rank 58th on offense, 28th on defense, and 93rd on special teams.

FPI

FPI is higher on BYU this season than SP+. FPI gives BYU a 70.5% chance to win this game.

Statsowar

Paker Fleming, founder of CFB Graphs, put out his model's projection for BYU-TCU. BYU has a 69% chance to win with an expected final score of 28-21.

The matchup in this game to watch is BYU's offense against TCU's defense. TCU's defense ranks in the top 15 in scoring defense. However, they have allowed teams to move the football against them. BYU's offense ranks first in success rate on offense and TCU ranks 55th in success rate allowed. BYU should be able to move the football. The game will be decided by which team can finish drives with touchdowns.

That's one area where TCU has struggled on offense. The Horned Frogs rank 124th in points scored per Eckel drive. An Eckel drive is essentially a drves that reaches field goal range.

Some Big 12 Games:
BYU @ TCU
Texas Tech @ Colorado
Baylor @ Arizona State
Cincinnati @ Arizona pic.twitter.com/LWLYKJQOD0

- parker fleming (@statsowar) September 30, 2026

BCFTOYS

BCFTOYS, which produces the FEI ratings, gives BYU a 72.4% chance to win with an expected final score of 29-20 in favor of the Cougars.

BYU ranks 14th nationally in BCFTOYS, led by the offense which ranks 15th nationally in offensive efficiency. The Cougars rank 25th in defensive efficiency and 45th in special teams efficiency. TCU ranks 50th nationally and 72nd on offense, 36th on defense, and 36th on special teams.

The FEI ratings are "opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession."

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This article was originally published on www.si.com/college/byu as No. 10 BYU vs. TCU: What the Advanced Analytics Predict for Saturday.