NCAAF Picks, Predictions: 3 Team Totals to Bet for College Football Week 10

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The famous quote from Rex Ryan is, “Sometimes you’re the dog, sometimes you’re the fire hydrant.”

I was the dog a couple of weeks ago with the 3-0 sweep on the team total plays. On the other end, last week I went 0-3 with the reverse sweep. It has still been a positive season overall, and hopefully we can get it turned back around this weekend.

This is arguably the best slate of games the entire season. We have all kinds of top-25 matchups, and a lot of them are games where there’s no love lost between the two teams.

Get out your favorite beverage and enjoy a great weekend of college football. Let’s dive into our NCAAF picks and college football predictions for this week’s team totals.

TCU vs. Arizona Pick

There’s a sneaky good Friday night slate this week. TCU goes to Arizona in a game that could be a good one in the Big 12.

Arizona has some injuries in the secondary, and that has led to the spread coming down and the total going up some in the last couple days.

The TCU offense has been a disappointment this year, but the Horned Frogs defense is excellent. TCU ranks 14th nationally in yards per play allowed at 4.56 yards per play given up. It’s also seventh in the nation in Success Rate allowed.

Opponents have scored on only 68.4% of trips to the red zone, so the Horned Frogs have also been great at shutting down the opposition once they get close to the end zone.

I’ve been really impressed with the consistency of the TCU defense. It hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a single game all season. They gave up 24 points to a very good West Virginia offense.

In every other game this season, TCU has allowed 17 points or fewer.

Both of these teams play at a slow pace, ranking 99th and 102nd in the nation in tempo.

Arizona sits 45th nationally in Points Per Opportunity, so they haven’t been great at cashing in with touchdowns. The Wildcats would have to have more success than anyone has had against the Frogs defense so far this season.

Pick: Arizona Team Total Under 27.5

Confidence Rating: A

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Wyoming vs. UNLV Pick

Wyoming is 4-1 in the Mountain West. UNLV is 3-1 in the Mountain West. There’s a lot on the line in this showdown in Las Vegas.

The Cowboys have looked like a completely different team in the last few weeks. The running game has really been working, as the Pokes are all the way up to fourth nationally in Offensive Line Yards and 22nd in Rushing Success Rate.

UNLV is weak against the run, sitting 138th in Defensive Line Yards, 129th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 127th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

Opponents have racked up 15 carries of 20 yards or longer against this UNLV stop unit. That’s important since Wyoming has become much more explosive in the run game recently, ranking eighth nationally in rushing explosiveness.

Quarterback Tyler Hughes isn’t a star, but he has gotten a lot more comfortable in the Cowboys offense in recent weeks, so they can keep defenses honest.

UNLV gave up 430 rushing yards against Air Force. The Rebels allowed a very poor Northern Illinois team to put up 493 yards of total offense and 24 points last weekend.

The Rebels’ defensive front is their weakness, and that plays to the strength of the Wyoming offense.

UNLV will run it well and hit some big plays in the rushing game as well, but I think Wyoming is being underrated, especially on offense.

Pick: Wyoming Team Total Over 19.5

Confidence Rating: A

Boise State vs. Colorado State Pick

Boise State played in what might have been the wildest game of the season thus far last weekend.

Texas State somehow scored 36 straight points and had a 39-28 lead over the Broncos, but Boise State pulled out the 46-45 victory. That game was, 7-0, at the end of the first quarter, and then the offenses went crazy. The fourth quarter saw 38 points scored.

Boise quarterback Maddux Madsen was hurt in that game, but it appears the injury wasn’t as bad as it was feared at first. He’s listed as questionable for this one.

The Broncos will move the ball at ease against Colorado State. Honestly, everyone moves the ball with ease against Colorado State. The Rams are allowing 8.02 yards per play — a full yard worse than the second-worst defense in the country. Ouch!

Boise State’s defense certainly isn’t the dominant unit it was in some recent seasons. The Broncos rank 115th in yards per pass attempt allowed, 128th in passing explosiveness allowed and have allowed 14 passing plays of 40 yards or more this season.

Can Colorado State throw it on the Broncos? With Hauss Hejny back under center, I think it can.

Hejny is far better than the Colorado State backups. Hejny has 14 touchdown passes and only two interceptions so far this season. Colorado State scored 23 points against a good BYU defense, 35 points against Wyoming and 49 points against San Diego State.

The offense should do enough here.

Pick: Colorado State Team Total Over 25.5

Confidence Rating: B-