Mountain West & Pac-12 Bowl Projections Week 6: New Mexico Potato Bowl Consensus

The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.

Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it’s difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.

For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity’s sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.

For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it’s a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, it’s possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won’t entertain that possibility, at least not to start.

Clear as mud? Good. For what it’s worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes clearer, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Bowl Affiliation Key

Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ

Hawaii Bowl: MW #2

Arizona Bowl: MW #3

New Mexico Bowl: MW #4

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup

Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl

Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ

Hawaii Bowl: Pac-12 #2

ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #3

ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #4

Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams

ESPN Bowl: Backup bowl

College Football Playoff: Highest-ranked G6 team

Mike

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: UNLV

Arizona Bowl: North Dakota State

New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl:

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

I shook things up at the top of the Mountain West this week, following UNLV’s defeat of NDSU. The Lobos are now in the top spot, as they look like the clear best team in the conference. The Rebels get bumped up to #2, and the Bison drop to third. No changes to Air Force (win) and SJSU (loss), as I still think the latter gets to six wins, though the road won’t be easy. No changes in the Pac-12, with the top two teams winning and the Bobcats on a bye. Fresno State played well and is still a good team despite the loss. No other Pac team looks close to a bowl berth at this point.

Zach

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: UNLV

Arizona Bowl: North Dakota State

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wyoming

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: N/A

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

Nothing really changed from last week in the PAC-12 with Boise State defeating Fresno State and Oregon State dominating San Diego State. The Beavers are inching closer to the top spot in the PAC-12. North Dakota State loss move UNLV into the number two spot and Wyoming’s win over San Jose State has them narrowly making a bowl.

Jeff

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: UNLV

Arizona Bowl: Air Force

New Mexico Bowl: North Dakota State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: San Jose State

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: N/A

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

The Pac-12 shows two dominant teams, Boise and Oregon State. They’ll fight it out, and it’s possible that Oregon State could pull off the win and take the conference lead. The MWC is now a two-team race with New Mexico and UNLV. NDSU showed they are mortal. SJSU was disappointing, and they’ll either rebound or plummet like they did last season.

Dan

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: UNLV

New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: N/A

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: N/A

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

Winner of the Week- UNLV- punched back after a lackluster start to the year, taking down NDSU and making the Mountain West race a bit more interesting. Oregon State- Are the Beavers bound to try and make a CFP bid? Another dominant offensive showing has the nation talking about OSU. All eyes look towards Nov. 14 vs. Boise. Losers of the Week: The Mountain West and NDSU-While it’s nice that UNLV got up off the mat, an undefeated NDSU run would have been quite the resume boost for the MW conference, especially with College Gameday rumors surrounding New Mexico vs. NDSU in two weeks. That’s likely not the case anymore. San Diego State – Ouch.