Mountain West & Pac-12 Bowl Projections Week 3: Who is going to the Poinsettia Bowl?

The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.

Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it’s difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.

For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity’s sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.

For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it’s a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, it’s possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won’t entertain that possibility, at least not to start.

Clear as mud? Good. For what it’s worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes clearer, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Bowl Affiliation Key

Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ

Hawaii Bowl: MW #2

Arizona Bowl: MW #3

New Mexico Bowl: MW #4

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup

Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl

Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ

Hawaii Bowl: Pac-12 #2

ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #3

ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #4

Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams

ESPN Bowl: Backup bowl

College Football Playoff: Highest-ranked G6 team

Mike

Potato Bowl: North Dakota State

Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico

Arizona Bowl: Air Force

New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State

Hawaii Bowl: Oregon State

ESPN Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: San Diego State

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

Not too many changes this week. I flipped Air Force and San Jose State. I’m not sure who the third-best team in the Mountain West is (if there is one). The Pac-12 isn’t in much better shape. The Broncos stand pat, but they had a close call in their game. Fresno State didn’t look much better either. I’m dropping the Aztecs down and bumping the Beavers and Bobcats up. I expect the Beavers to keep rising in these projections as the weeks go on.

Zach

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: Hawaii

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Colorado State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: San Diego State

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

I’m not feeling confident in my pick for Boise State. They have to get better on the defensive side of the ball. We will see if they can take care of business against Western Michigan. There is still a lot of room for movement in both conferences. It does feel like there is the potential for a lot of 6-6 teams this year.

Dan

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: UNLV

New Mexico Bowl: Hawaii

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State

Hawaii Bowl: Colorado State

ESPN Bowl: Oregon State

ESPN Bowl: San Diego State

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

New Mexico’s inspired play against Oklahoma has me feeling good about my MW table, but my focus remains on the Oregon State Beavers. OSU might be the biggest winners of the week, and not because of their lopsided victory over Montana. SDSU fell, and Boise State struggled with South Dakota. Overall, everyone in the conference looks human. The Beavers, who have passed the eye test through three weeks, may be the biggest beneficiary.