Mountain West & Pac-12 Bowl Projections Week 10. Can Utah State make a bowl game?

The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.

Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it’s difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.

For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity’s sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.

For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it’s a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, it’s possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won’t entertain that possibility, at least not to start.

Clear as mud? Good. For what it’s worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes clearer, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Bowl Affiliation Key

Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ

Hawaii Bowl: MW #2

Arizona Bowl: MW #3

New Mexico Bowl: MW #4

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup

Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl

Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ

Hawaii Bowl: Pac-12 #2

ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #3

ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #4

Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams

ESPN Bowl: Backup bowl

College Football Playoff: Highest-ranked G6 team

Mike

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Texas State

Hawaii Bowl: Oregon State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl:

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

Minor changes for me this week once again. Wyoming and Air Force flip spots, despite both of them winning this weekend. The Cowboys are one of the hottest teams in the Mountain West, although their QB injury may put that to a hault, but that’s next week’s issue. Similarly, on the Pac-12 side, Texas State is playing good football while the Beavers have struggled the past two weeks. Fresno State is struggling too. The Aggies are playing well, winning two straight, but I’m going to wait at least another week before a put them into my projections.

Zach

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: Wyoming

Arizona Bowl: North Dakota State

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Texas State

Hawaii Bowl: Oregon State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: Utah State

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

The Broncos remain in control for the Group of Six spot in the College Football Playoff. New Mexico is close behind and should get a desirable bowl opponent if they keep winning. I have Utah State narrowly making a bowl game.

Jeff

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: Air Force

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming

New Mexico Bowl: North Dakota State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Texas State

Hawaii Bowl: Oregon State

ESPN Bowl: San Diego State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

It’s the Lobos in the MWC. If Boise falters, the Lobos will leapfrog them for the G6 spot. Wyoming and Air Force are playing good ball. NDSU is a quality team. UNLV had high expectations and still might make a bowl game. San Jose State inspires no interest despite a good defense. Boise State controls their own destiny and is in the driver’s seat. Texas State is exciting and playing some good football lately. Meanwhile, Oregon State is dropping yet is still dangerous. If SDSU wins against Utah State, they should get a bowl invite. Fresno State is also likely in.

Chase

Potato Bowl: North Dakota State

Hawaii Bowl: UNLV

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: N/A

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State

Hawaii Bowl: Oregon State

ESPN Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: New Mexico

Boise State is currently in position to make the CFP out of the G6, but I simply have a feeling the traditional chaos of the Pac-12 will bite the Broncos somewhere in their last three games. New Mexico is the team poised to capitalize on that, and the Lobos are so clearly above the rest of the Mountain West that I do not have the same fear of them falling that I do with Boise State. Also, San Jose State will not make a bowl game despite currently being 5-5; their chances of beating any of their final three opponents are non-existent.

Dan

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming

New Mexico Bowl: UNLV

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: N/A

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

Winners of the Week: Air Force-Commander in Chief trophy champs! A quality win over Army.Texas State-Big win over a red hot Oregon State team, by a wide margin as well. Why do I have OSU above them? I think we see the Beavers shock the world with a win at Boise this week…because wouldn’t it be so on brand for the PAC to once again shoot itself in the foot? But that’s a convo for another time… Losers of the Week: Colorado State-Congrats, you, yes, YOU, are the new defensive coordinator for Colorado State. Fifth time in last six games allowing 49 points or more. Woof. UNLV-just when the Rebs got back in the race, the Cowboys come into town and knock them back down onto the mat.