Mizzou Football: How does the season shake out game-by-game?

The concrete has set, the M has been re-rocked and Faurot Field is ready to host it’s 100th season of Mizzou football. After an offseason of lawsuits, failed legislation, extreme roster turnover, and off-field injury, any college football fan worth their salt is ready to finally play real games. Ladies and gentlemen, we are finally here with ACTUAL FOOTBALL in 2026.

After losing two-thirds of their starters from 2025, the unknowns for Mizzou football far outnumber the knowns heading into 2026. From the changes in the offensive playcaller to a new quarterback to replacing 10 starters on defense, just about any prognostication for the game-by-game outcomes of this season is really just a guessing game. But Rock M Nation pays me the big bucks to do more than just spin a wheel, so let’s pick each game for the nascent season.

Game 1: Arkansas Pine-Bluff

What is there to say? Mizzou is 24-0 all time against FCS opponents. In fact, they have never won a game against the FCS team (since the NCAA made the move from 1A and 1AA to FBS and FCS) by less than 17 points. And even that game was just a boring clunker thanks to a lackluster performance against Abilene Christian in 2022 where the Tigers were never in any danger of actually losing. UAPB isn’t just an FCS team, they are a bad FCS team where the Tigers are favored by more than 50 points. There really isn’t a reasonable scenario where Mizzou loses this game (or is even in danger of losing in the second half.)

Mizzou wins 55-17
(1-0)

Game 2: @kansas

Yes, this game is on the road, and yes the beakers are looking to get revenge for last year’s Mizzou come-from-behind victory. And even worse news… apparently kansas actually WANTS to win the game, which is surprising, tbh. However, kansas lost the only good player in Jalon Daniels off an already bad team and they will be playing in a raucous, half-built, half-capacity stadium (which already only holds 45,000 when it isn’t half-torn-down.) This will hardly be an SEC-level road environment.

Mizzou wins 38-21
(2-0)

Game 3: Troy

As a Mizzou freshman in 2004 with the Tigers a consensus pick to win the Big 12 North and the world as our Brad Smith-sized oyster, playing Troy gives me unbridled PTSD. That said, it’s been 22 long years since Mizzou took that ill-fated trip to Alabama and the Tigers have beaten Troy twice in those two-plus decades so maybe it’s time I got over it. Mizzou will win fairly easily.

Mizzou wins 41-17
(3-0)
I still probably won’t get over 2004.

Game 4: @Mississippi State

This is the first game on the schedule where the Tigers’ meddle should seriously be tested. Mississippi State has been pretty bad in recent years and Eli Drinkwitz’s squad has handled them pretty easily in back-to-back seasons. Pundits both at a national and conference level feel like the Bulldogs will take a step forward in Jeff Lebby’s third season at the helm, but other than quarterback Kamario Taylor taking a huge leap forward this year, I’m not sure how this team is going to be much better than last year’s team that went 1-7 in the SEC. This is a loseable game for Mizzou, but I don’t see it happening that way.

Mizzou wins 31-24
(4-0)

Game 5: Florida

If Mizzou wants to have any argument for being in the discussion for a potential playoff birth later in the season, beating Florida and starting the season 5-0 is a requirement. The Gators have a real adult as head coach in Jon Sumrall and I think he will win big in Gainsville. Eventually. However, he has a pretty substantial rebuilding job in store for him, at least for this season, and I’m not sure he’ll have the Gators at a level to win a road SEC game against a team of Mizzou’s caliber, at least by early October. This one will be tough, close game but I’m picking the Tigers to pull it out late in a Eli Drinkwitz special (late one-score win somehow involving long field goals.)

Mizzou wins 34-30
(5-0)

Game 6: Texas A&M

Earlier in the 2000s, Mizzou experienced an enjoyable run of victories over the Aggies, both in Columbia and College Station. Unfortunately it seems like that period has passed, especially since Mike Elko has taken helm for Texas A&M. The last two seasons has seen him put clown shoes on Eli Drinkwitz’s staff and team with two of the more disastrous and embarrassing defeats of the Drinkwitz tenure. With the Aggies returning a ton of production from last year’s 11-1 playoff team, I’m not sure why the outcome will be any different this year. This one will be the first (but not last) loss of the Tigers’ season.

Mizzou loses 34-17
(5-1)

Game 7: @Ole Miss

Mizzou takes yet another trip to the ‘sip following the Aggie loss to play another former (and potentially future) playoff team in Ole Miss. I’m not sure the Rebels will be as good as last year’s semifinals team was, but I’m also not sure they need to be to beat Mizzou in Oxford. They return Heisman hopeful Trinidad Chambliss and former Tiger Kewan Lacey on what should be a pretty powerful offense. I think this is Mizzou’s second loss of the year.

Mizzou loses 31-21
(5-2)

Game 8: @Arkansas

Thankfully, following back-to-back matchups against playoff-caliber teams, the Tigers get a respite with back-to-back bye weeks. Well a real bye week and then an ostensible bye week against the hapless hogs. There isn’t much confidence both inside and outside Fayetteville in this iteration of the Arkansas team (and there really is no reason to be.) Eli Drinkwitz enjoys beating Arkansas and he does it often. Mark him down as improving his record against the hogs to 6-1.

Mizzou wins 38-20
(6-2)

Game 9: Texas

This is the part of the schedule where the pedal really hits the metal. While not a playoff team last year, Texas is probably the most talented team on paper in the whole country. The Longhorns may turn out to be all hat and no cattle, but taking a look at their roster full of NFL-caliber kaiju, it’s hard to pick against them in just about any game this season, in Austin or otherwise. I think Mizzou will keep this one competitive, but Texas will turn out to be too strong.

Mizzou loses 31-24
(6-3)

Game 10: @Georgia

You can copy and paste what I said about Texas and put it here, but with Georgia instead. Oh and also Georgia is better coached than Texas and the game is on the road rather than in Columbia. Weirdly, Drinkwitz always seems to play Kirby Smart teams tougher than he should, considering roster disparities. I think this game will be fairly close on the scoreboard, even if Georgia really isn’t ever truly threatened.

Mizzou loses 28-20
(6-4)

Game 11: Kentucky

Like Florida, Kentucky comes into 2026 with an exciting new coach and new energy. I really like the direction that Will Stein has set the Wildcats on early in his tenure and I think his squad will jump up and bite somebody this season. That said, this late into the season the Kentucky depth will be tested as they portaled in a ton of guys this offseason. Injuries will occur and I’m not sure that November Wildcats will be as exciting as the September version. The Tigers should get back on track here.

Mizzou wins 34-24
(7-4)

Game 12: Oklahoma

So here we are with Mizzou’s new Thanksgiving weekend rival in Oklahoma. While I enjoyed beating Arkansas as a Thanksgiving tradition every year, I do kind of like the idea of a more historical rival in this spot. Eli Drinkwitz has been oft criticized for never beating teams ranked higher than him. Eleven weeks into 2026, I’m figuring that will still be the case. But this is it folks. He’s finally going to do it. I think Oklahoma will be entering the last week of the year at 9-2 and desperate for a 10th win to ensure a playoff birth. The Tigers will be looking to salvage a tough record by earning an 8th win against a what may be a top 10 team. This will be like previous two match ups with the Sooners: ugly as sin and smells even worse.
Mizzou wins 20-16
(8-4)

So there you have it: My official prediction for the 2026 Mizzou season is 8-4. Considering the step up in schedule strength due to adding a ninth conference game, as well as the sheer amount of turnover in the offseason, an 8-4 record for the Tigers will be a solid, if not spectacular campaign and set the program up for even brighter days in 2027.