Iowa still considered favorite vs. Wisconsin despite major injury

The Wisconsin Badgers take on the Iowa Hawkeyes this weekend, looking to snap a four-game losing streak to their rival and get one of the most important wins of the year for head coach Luke Fickell.

Wisconsin has been largely uncompetitive in its last two games against Iowa, with physicality and run defense being big issues in both. Last year, the Badgers gave up over 200 rushing yards to the Hawkeyes en route to a 37-0 loss. The year before, Wisconsin had an embarrassing 42-10 loss to their rival.

This year, though, the story looks much different for the Badgers. After entering last year’s game with a 2-3 record off a loss to Michigan, Wisconsin is looking much better in 2026, coming into this one with a 5-2 record off a win over USC.

Any game against the physical and defense-led Hawkeyes is bound to be a challenge, but Iowa is coming off a loss to the Minnesota Gophers, which dropped them out of the Top 25. They also lost star running back Kamari Moulton for the season in the game. Moulton had nearly 100 yards rushing and a touchdown on great efficiency against Wisconsin a season ago.

The Badgers enter this one with one of the country’s best run defenses after allowing just -17 yards (sacks included) to USC last week. They face an Iowa team ranking 81st in the country in rushing yards with 138.0 and 122nd in rush attempts at 30.0 per game.

Still, going into this one, the Badgers are 3.5-point underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook, although they are down from 4.5, where they initially started the week. The total is at a ghastly 36.5 points.

So, on a neutral field, oddsmakers would slightly lean toward Iowa. The Hawkeyes are the top team receiving votes this week, with the Badgers ranked at No. 25.

Iowa, also sitting at 5-2, has had quite an interesting season. They’ve enjoyed blowouts over Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa, while winning close games against Iowa State and Michigan. In the 16-13 Iowa State win, Iowa rushed for under 100 yards, while quarterback Hank Brown threw for 191 in the air.

In the 20-19 Michigan win, Iowa had under 60 rushing yards and just 2.4 yards per carry, while Brown threw for 227 yards and two touchdowns. Iowa has also lost to Ohio State in a game where it had under 250 yards of offense, but it also blew out Washington 41-24, thanks to over 250 yards on the ground alone.

This past weekend, though, the Hawkeyes fell 13-10 to Minnesota, as they rushed for just 90 yards on 3.0 yards per carry.

Iowa’s calling card is its defense, which ranks 22nd in adjusted EPA per play against FBS opponents, while Wisconsin is in the top 10. So, this should be a defensive showdown, with the Hawkeyes slightly favored going into the week.