Iowa Hawkeyes Football: Purdue Boilermakers Game Preview

This Saturday, the Iowa Hawkeyes face the Purdue Boilermakers in a matchup of two teams looking to hang on to their slim postseason opportunities. Iowa, at 7-2, is fighting for its minimal chance at a Playoff berth. The Boilers, meanwhile, at 3-6, have to win out to make a bowl.

Purdue has been trending in the wrong direction since Jeff Brohm left after 2022, but, despite their record, the Boilermakers have been a more competitive program this season than they have been the past three seasons, at least offensively.

Iowa, in its 28th season under Kirk Ferentz, has mostly been the model of consistency, but with third-year offensive coordinator Tim Lester, the Hawkeyes finally have an offense with some punch to go with the usual elite defense and special teams.

According to Fanduel, Iowa is favored by 17.5 and should win this handily, but to do so, it will probably have to score some points. In other words, it’s probably not going to win 20-0.

3 Questions

Does Iowa Take Its Foot Off The Gas?

First of all, this Purdue offense can score points. It scored 38 against undefeated UCLA and its salty defense; no other opponent has come close to that against the Bruins. It also scored 36 against 8-1 Wake Forest, more than anyone else has scored against the Demon Deacons including Miami.

Iowa only allowed 13 against Minnesota despite all of the offensive mishaps working against it. The Hawks shut out Wisconsin, and they allowed Northwestern to score 10 with the last seven coming at the end of the game after the offense had turned the ball over (more on that in a second). But Minnesota has a mediocre, at best, offense, Wisconsin has a bad offense and Northwestern was without its quarterback.

The Boilers will likely be able to offensively outdo any of those opponents which means the Iowa offense will have to more score than it has.

On top of that, Iowa’s slim Playoff hopes depend, at least partly, on style points. Winning 24-21 against a 3-win Purdue will not impress anyone and will reinforce the narrative that Iowa’s record is more a product of a soft schedule than a good football team.

Couple all of this with Kirk Ferentz’s tendency to get a lead and be happy to just salt away that lead.

I’ll be looking for and hoping that Iowa takes a lead and pushes that lead, at least until the fourth quarter when, hopefully, the game is well out of hand.

Can Iowa Take Care Of The Football?

The 2026 Iowa Hawkeyes have won seven games despite not playing Kirk-Ferentz football. Ferentz has said the only stats he pays close attention to are penalties and turnovers.

Iowa is fourth in the Big Ten in penalties which isn’t bad and has been better these last few games, but when you compare it to typical Iowa teams—second in the conference in 2025, first in 2024, third in 2023, etc—it is a small step back.

But the turnovers have been a major issue and show no signs of abating.

With three regular season games remaining, the Hawkeyes have fumbled the ball 12 times so far in 2026. In all of 2025, they fumbled 11 times. 2024 was only 13. 2023 (23 fumbles) and 2022 (18 fumbles) were anomalies because Brian Ferentz was a terrible OC and quarterbacks coach and because the Hawkeyes would have been better off putting a running back at quarterback. But usually under Kirk Ferentz, ball security is of utmost priority.

This was addressed in this week’s press conference in which Ferentz acknowledged the problem and said the focus is on concentration. In other words, they run the same ball security drills they have always run; the players simply have to concentrate.

Somehow, Iowa has mostly survived this issue, Minnesota game aside. It’s hard to believe the Hawkeyes can continue to get by despite giving away possessions.

But it’s more than surviving. As previously mentioned, Iowa is in the running, however slim, for a shot at inclusion in the College Football Playoffs. As Iowa is a long shot, style points will matter greatly. Tony Diaz’s fumble toward the end of the Northwestern game led to seven Wildcat points and changed the final score from 24-3 to 24-10. 24-3 looks much better than 24-10, and it’s that simple. Even in a win, turnovers are a problem.

Can the Hawkeyes Generate Turnovers?

Speaking of turnovers, the Iowa defense has been elite—third-best scoring defense in the country, fifth-best rushing defense (ypc), ninth-best total defense—but one area in which it has not been elite has been generating turnovers.

The Hawkeyes are 13th in the Big Ten with six interceptions, 11th with five fumbles forced and tied for ninth with three fumbles recovered.

The best Iowa defenses have not only stopped the opposition but also taken the ball from them.

There isn’t much more to say here except that, despite throwing the ball more than most teams in the conference, despite usually playing from behind, Purdue has taken care of the football. Iowa needs to do something about that.

2 Things To Look For

The Defensive Line

Something I’ve loved about this season has been watching this defensive line develop.

It began with four new starters, only one of whom—Bryce Hawthorne—had any notable playing time last year. At first, Phil Parker had to depend heavily on blitzes to generate pressure. The line was adequate at stopping the run, but had some slips and don’t forget that Michigan—not a great rushing team—ran for 3.85 ypc against Iowa while Ohio State ran for 3.4 ypc but it was closer to 3.9 without sack yardage.

Now, nine games in, this line eats blockers for breakfast and generates a nice amount of pressure without blitzes. Against Northwestern, defensive linemen accumulated five sacks.

And Bryce Hawthorne, golly Moses. Iowa has had some good defensive tackles over the past few years—Yahya Black, Aaron Graves, Daviyon Nixon—but Hawthorne may be the most individually disruptive DT since Mitch King in 2008 or maybe even Jonathan Babineaux in 2004. That might be a stretch, but I don’t think it’s that much of a stretch.

Purdue is ranked sixth in the Big Ten in sacks allowed, but Northwestern is ranked fourth, even after Iowa feasted on them last week. I’d like to see the Hawkeyes’ D-line continue the dominance it had against the Wildcats and Wisconsin.

And you know what’s really exciting? Six of the eight two-deep, including three of the four starters, have availability left and could be back next year though Hawthorne will likely have a decision to make.

The Iowa Secondary

Last week I said that Aidan Chiles might be the best quarterback Iowa would play this year. Unfortunately for Northwestern, he was scratched which brings us to Purdue’s quarterback Ryan Browne, who might be the new best quarterback Iowa plays this season.

Browne is third in the Big Ten in yards-passing-per-game. He is ninth in passer efficiency, right in front of Hank Brown, but you have to remember that unlike Brown as well as the eight quarterbacks ahead of Browne, Purdue is usually playing from behind, and thus, throwing the ball more and throwing it more desperately.

He’s also got two dangerous weapons in receivers Assad Waseem and Xavier Townsend who combine for 84 receptions, 1147 yards and four touchdowns.

The Iowa secondary has come on of late, but the pass defense has been the one notable flaw in defensive coordinator Phil Parker’s defense. The Hawkeyes have been allowing a 122.1 quarterback efficiency rating which is ninth in the conference. Compare that to 2025 when they were third, 2024 when they were seventh, 2023 when they were third, etc. In short, the pass defense has had some uncharacteristic holes.

The lack of turnovers, especially interceptions, generated has played a part in this issue.

Browne and company will look to exploit that secondary from the get-go which will be an opportunity for Phil Parker’s crew to show just how much it’s grown over the past four weeks.

1 Wild Prediction

Iowa put up over 400 total yards against Washington earlier this season. That was the only Power-Four showing in which Iowa put up over 400 total yards. In fact, that Washington game was the first time Iowa put up over 400 total yards against a Power-Four foe since the 2024 Wisconsin game.

I predict they do it again vs Purdue. In fact, I predict they put up over 500 yards of total offense.