Iowa Hawkeyes Football: Northwestern Wildcats Game Preview

This Saturday, the 6-2 Iowa Hawkeyes travel to the new Ryan Field to take on the surprisingly competitive 6-2 Northwestern Wildcats. The winner of this matchup keeps their (slim) playoff hopes alive while the loser will be left with a consolation-prize bowl game.

Iowa beat Michigan, but even though I think Michigan played Iowa well, my opinion doesn’t count, and the Michigan win won’t impress the playoff committee. Wisconsin is good…on defense. Washington and Iowa State: eh. Looking forward, Illinois and Purdue aren’t impressive and Nebraska…well, I wouldn’t get my hopes up.

That means this is Iowa’s last chance for a statement win. With a win in Evanston, the Hawks have a shot, albeit a distant one, of making the playoffs.

Everything is on the line, but then again, everything was on the line in Minnesota too.

3 Questions

Can Iowa Contain Aidan Chiles?

Aidan Chiles is one of two quarterbacks on Iowa’s schedule that it has faced before—the other was Drake Lindsay—although when the Hawkeyes played Chiles, he was playing for Michigan State. That was in 2024 at which time Chiles had all the talent in the world but was highly inconsistent. Except against Iowa in which he had his best game of 2024 and Iowa lost a game it had no business losing to a MSU team that finished 5-7.

Fast forward two years and Aidan Chiles is now a Wildcat and is the model of efficiency and consistency. He is currently completing 68.8% of his passes for 9.4 yards-per-attempt. He has thrown 13 touchdowns to 1 interception. He has also rushed for 274 yards, 10 touchdowns and 3.2 yards-per-carry. He is, after OSU’s Julian Sayin, the best quarterback Iowa will face this season. He might even be better than Sayin; Chiles is more dynamic, and he doesn’t have a safety valve named Jeremiah Smith.

To make matters worse, NU boasts a strong rushing attack that will keep defenses honest, two very good tight ends, and the top wide receiver, Griffin Wilde, has 44 receptions and is averaging a whopping 17.3 yards-per-catch. In short, Iowa can’t just spy Chiles and hope that takes care of it.

The Cats scored 23 points against Indiana, the best defense they have faced. Those 23 points were the most anyone, including Ohio State, has scored on the Hoosiers this year. It is worth noting that Northwestern was getting shut out until the second half. In the first half, the Hoosiers limited the big plays, kept everything in front of them and didn’t let Chiles out of the pocket. In the second half, to put it bluntly, they didn’t do those things.

It’s a standard Phil Parker gameplan. Make them drive the field. Don’t let them get the big plays. Keep the quarterback in the pocket. Tighten up in the red zone.

Iowa is unlikely to shut down the Cats’ high-powered offense, but if they can limit it, make them settle for field goals, win the field-position battle, and the offense can do its part then the Hawks can walk out of Evanston with a win.

As for the offense doing its part…

Can Hank Brown Put Together Two Strong Games in a Row?

Up until now, the thing that has held Hank Brown back from being named the unquestioned starter has been a failure of consistency. He’s had his moments—the last quarter and a half of the Michigan game is the most notable example—but going into the Wisconsin game, he had not put together four strong quarters in a row let alone two complete games in a row.

He took the first steps toward consistency against Wisconsin in which he completed 20-of-24 passes (83.3%) for 222 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for 11 yards including one 15-yarder.

This was good enough to earn him Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week. The last Iowa quarterback to be named Big Ten Offensive POTW was Nate Stanley in 2018, so it’s been a while.

The question now is can he repeat that performance against Northwestern? The good news is that Northwestern doesn’t have a great defense, certainly not as good as Wisconsin. The bad news is Northwestern has a much better offense than Wisconsin, and the Hawkeyes will have to keep the Wildcat O off the field and score more points than it needed against the Badgers which, technically, Iowa needed exactly two points to beat the Badgers.

I’ve said it before, as have many others, but Brown does not have to be the second coming of Tom Brady to be a successful Iowa quarterback. He just has to make the makeables, which is no small feat given how long it’s been since an Iowa quarterback has consistently done that.

Can Iowa Continue to Get the Ball into its Playmakers’ Hands?

A large part of the success Brown experienced against Wisconsin had to do with a pass-first gameplan that found ways to get the ball into the hands of Iowa’s playmakers in space. Those playmakers—receivers Tony Diaz and Reece Vander Zee and tight end DJ Vonnahme—combined for 14 receptions for 130 yards and two touchdowns. They also had three rushes for 30 yards and one touchdown. Diaz’s 20-yard run was Iowa’s longest rush of the game.

This, in turn, opened up the rushing game which found its second success against a Power-Four opponent and its first success against a Power-Four opponent that wasn’t Charmin soft.

With the season-ending injury to running back Kamari Moulton, getting the ball into Diaz’s, VanderZee’s and Vonnahme’s hands is even more important. Xavier Williams had a respectable game against the Badgers—78 yards on 20 carries (3.9 ypc)—but he is too inexperienced to shoulder the same load as Moulton.

This is the first time in a long time that Iowa has had dangerous playmakers at wide receiver to complement its usual strong stable of tight ends.

OC Tim Lester has to build on the success of his gameplan against Wisconsin. It is the best way to open up the run game, to make it as easy as possible on Hank Brown and to score the points necessary to beat a potent Northwestern squad.

2 Things To Watch

Fumbles (and Turnovers Generally)

The Hawkeyes fumbled the ball three times against Wisconsin; they only lost one of them. This followed the Minnesota debacle in which Iowa (officially) fumbled four times but only lost one of them.

A number of people in the social media universe have decried the Minnesota result as being a matter of everything-that-could-go-wrong-did-go-wrong. To me, fumbling four times and only losing one of them is actually good luck (or Minnesota not focusing on loose-ball drills).

This—fumbles—cannot happen going forward this season, and it certainly can’t happen against the Cats. You give an offense like the Wildcats free drives and, unlike Minnesota, they will make you pay.

And speaking of luck, Aidan Chiles has fumbled five times this season and lost none of them though he did recover one in the end zone that went for a safety.

As for interceptions, Hank Brown has thrown three. Brown has not been as sparkling as some quarterbacks, but, by and large, he has taken care of the ball.

Kirk Ferentz-coached teams’ first priority is always to take care of the ball, and there is a good reason for that. Let’s hope that Iowa has worked on fixing the fumbles.

Special Teams

Northwestern kicker Jackson Kleather: 15/19 field goals with a long of 52. Iowa kicker Caden Buhr: 13/15 field goals with a long of 54.

Northwestern punter Niki Dugandzic: 38.7 ypp average; 32% inside the 20. Iowa punter Boston Everitt: 43.7 ypp; 61% inside the 20. (I don’t think enough has been said about how good a season the first-year starter is having).

Northwestern kick returns: 21.08 ypr, none returned for a touchdown. Iowa kick returns: 37.2 ypr, one returned for a touchdown.

Northwestern punt returns: 5.57 ypr, none returned for a touchdown. Iowa punt returns: 12.44 ypr, one returned for a touchdown.

Northwestern opponents’ kickoff returns: 20.88 ypr. Iowa opponents’ kickoff returns: 18.86 ypr.

Northwestern opponents’ punt returns: 11.2 ypr. Iowa opponents punt returns: 10.33 ypr.

The numbers largely speak for themselves. Iowa has a sizable special teams advantage across the board.

1 Wild Prediction

I think Hank Brown and the offense will put together another strong game. But the win will hinge on Kirk Ferentz. Will he rely on his defense, as usual, or will he lean into his offense which, in my opinion, he will need to do in this game.

I predict 24 is the magic number. If Iowa can score 24 points, it will win this game. If it can’t then it won’t.

Go Hawks!