Five games that matter for Oregon's CFP chances in Week 7

Already with two losses on the Oregon Ducks' resume, the team's College Football Playoff hopes are on life support. They shouldn't even be on the minds of anyone in the program. Beating the Nebraska Cornhuskers at 8:00 p.m. has to be at the forefront of the Ducks' mind, or else the chances of everything that was set out for them prior to the 2026 season — Big Ten and national title — will just about vanish.

Sitting at 3-2, Oregon has seven games to go, including Saturday's test against the 5-1 Cornhuskers. If they somehow run the table, beating Ohio State, Michigan and Washington among others along the way, they'd put themselves in consideration for a CFP bid.

But in order for that to happen, things need to fall Oregon's way across college football on a weekly basis. Yep, we're already scoreboard watching in Week 7 because that's the spot that the Ducks find themselves in. As Dan Lanning said after the loss to the UCLA Bruins, Oregon no longer controls their own destiny. So, scoreboard watching — at least for fans and media — is justified.

It's virtually impossible to predict over half a season of outcomes. But in order for the Ducks to have their best chance of making the CFP, they need a couple of things. First, they need to win the rest of their games. That's obvious. Second, they need the undefeated teams to win out and the one-loss teams to add a second and third loss. A jumbled group of one- and two-loss teams wouldn't favor the Ducks. They need some teams to separate at the top while they budge into the two-loss tier.

Additionally, they need the race to the Big Ten title game to favor them, as that offers a guaranteed spot in the CFP with a victory. There's a lot of moving parts, but we're here to break it all down.

Here are the five most significant games across the nation that could impact the Ducks' path to the CFP.

No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Indiana

When: 9:00 a.m. PT

Where: Memorial Stadium | | Bloomington, IN

TV: Fox

Why it could matter: Speaking of the Big Ten title game race, both Ohio State and Indiana are 3-0 in the conference. The Hoosiers are 6-0 overall, while the Buckeyes are 5-1 with a loss at Texas earlier in the year. Oregon would be significantly helped if Indiana comes out on top, giving Ohio State a second loss and their first loss in Big Ten play. In that case, the Ducks could knock them out of the conference title race — and potentially CFP race — by beating them at The Shoe in three weeks. Indiana continuing it's undefeated season and separating at the top would help the Ducks as well.

No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 8 BYU

When: 4:30 p.m. PT

Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium | | Provo, UT

TV: ABC

Why it could matter: Oregon should be rooting hard for Notre Dame to win this one on the road. They're 6-0 and have this test against BYU and at home against Miami and SMU representing the only upset-worthy games on the schedule. If they lose to BYU, it's very important that they lose to Miami as well and drop to two losses instead of potentially stacking up against the Ducks at 10-2 come December. Clearing out the Big 12 race for CFP bids is also a necessity for Oregon, as the Big 12 currently has three teams (BYU No. 8, Texas Tech No. 10 and Utah No. 11) in the top 12. If the Big 12 gets two teams into the CFP field, that could spell doom for the potentially 10-2 Ducks.

Wisconsin vs. No. 12 UCLA

When: 4:30 p.m. PT

Where: Rose Bowl | | Pasadena, CA

TV: NBC

Why it could matter: The Bruins lost quarterback Nico Iamaleava to injury for the season against Oregon, but their run game remains one of the best in the nation. At 5-0 and 3-0 in the Big Ten with a cushy schedule the rest of the season, the Bruins are a real threat to steal a bid for the CFP from the Big Ten. Wisconsin, surprisingly good at 4-1 and 2-0 in the Big Ten, taking the Bruins down is paramount. The Badgers are very good, but I don't anticipate them factoring into the conference title race with USC and Iowa coming up the next two weeks. UCLA, on the other hand, doesn't face a ranked team until the season-finale at home against USC. They need losses on their resume to knock them out of the CFP and conference title picture and Wisconsin is one of few viable threats remaining on UCLA's schedume.

Arizona State vs. No. 10 Texas Tech

When: 12:30 p.m. PT

Where: Galaxy Stadium | | Lubbock, TX

TV: Fox

Why it could matter: Back to the Big 12 conundrum, Texas Tech sustaining their first loss prior to the Big 12 title game is vital. Can Kenny Dillingham do his 'ole Ducks a favor in Lubbock? The Arizona State head coach has led the Sun Devils to a 3-2 record, showing bouts of both explosion and disappointment offensively. If it all comes together, they have what it takes to down the Red Raiders, who have somewhat stumbled to a 5-0 record and the No. 10 spot. They're a getable team and need to add losses to their resume for the Ducks' sake.

Florida vs. No. 7 Texas

When: 9:00 a.m. PT

Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium | | Austin, TX

TV: ABC

Why it could matter: This is a similar case as every year in the SEC: teams will beat up on each other and, thus, knock themselves out of the CFP race simply because the middle tier of the conference is so strong. Florida is very unlikely to make the playoff after two straight losses, but Texas has just one loss after falling to Oklahoma. If the Longhorns lose to Florida, they'd face an uphill battle to make the CFP with contests against Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Missouri and LSU over the next month — absolutely brutal. If Florida wins, they'd likely appear back in the top-25 poll, but they still have to play Georgia, Oklahoma and Kentucky, an slate they're unlikely to survive without a third or fourth loss.

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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Five games that matter for Oregon's CFP chances in Week 7