Fact or Fiction? September’s biggest college football truths and lies

One month into the season, some college football themes, frontrunners and flops are emerging.

Let’s take this one at a time and separate fact from fiction:

Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith is Heisman Trophy frontrunner

Fiction.

Oddsmakers put Smith in the pole position, but sensational though he is, the Heisman mostly remains a quarterback award. Only four wide receivers have won it. So, I’d predict a quarterback like Miami’s Darian Mensah or Mississippi’s Trinidad Chambliss will win.

Texas is team to beat for the national championship.

Fiction.

Texas is No. 1, and its resume says it deserves the ranking, courtesy of wins against Ohio State and Tennessee. But, Texas finished September looking sloppy and undisciplined, and Arch Manning isn’t elevating to the elite level of quarterbacks. Other teams look better on the eye test, including Georgia and Miami.

The SEC is college football’s best conference in 2026

Fact.

The SEC has become what the conference’s propaganda firm pretended it to be the past few years: the best conference, with unmatched quality of depth. A few dregs exist, but the top 12 or so teams make for a stout conference that should qualify four or five playoff teams. Part of the SEC’s uprising can be pinned to a superior batch of quarterbacks. The conference possesses a deeper well of talent at the game’s most important position than it did the past few years. Now, the SEC just needs a team to emerge as the crème de la crème.

[ This column first published in our SEC Unfiltered newsletter. Want more commentary like this? Sign up here to get the newsletter delivered free to your email inbox. ]

Mike Norvell will be the first coach fired.

Fiction.

Norvell is a prime contender for a midseason firing. But, how can Maryland let the Mike Locksley tenure go on much longer after his Terps got buried in their home stadium, 54-3, by UCLA? If Maryland gets trounced in similar fashion by Nebraska this weekend, it needs to cut the check and end this. Within the SEC, Shane Beamer sits on the hottest seat. Beamer owns eight consecutive losses to Power Four programs. He could have some free time on his hands by Halloween. Maybe he can borrow Dan Mullen's old costume.

Oklahoma is college football’s biggest flop.

Fiction. (Sort of.)

It’s either Oklahoma or Texas A&M. I lean the Aggies, a team I had expected to remain in playoff contention into November. Forget that. They're cooked. At least the Sooners’ two losses came against ranked opponents on the road. Texas A&M looked awful in a home loss to Kentucky, then looked even worse getting trounced at LSU. More humbling losses are ahead for Oklahoma and Texas A&M, a pair of playoff teams last season that abruptly lost their way.

Florida is college football’s best surprise.

Fact.

Jon Sumrall proved how badly Billy Napier squandered the talent he attracted to Florida. Sumrall kept some quality leftovers, attracted a few useful ingredients, and cooked a 4-0 record in September. The Gators went from preseason unranked to playoff contenders at breakneck speed. Mississippi State is a contender for this recognition, too.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Listen to his podcast, "College Football Unfiltered." Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fact or Fiction? September’s biggest college football truths and lies