Expert predictions, picks for Florida's Week 11 game vs Kentucky

Florida football has suffered losses in four of its last five games after winning the first four of the season to start the Jon Sumrall era. Next up is a trip to Lexington, where the Kentucky Wildcats await them for the Gators' penultimate matchup of the 2026 SEC schedule.

Sumrall's squad enters the weekend unranked in both major polls with a 5-4 overall record and a 3-4 mark in conference play, while Kentucky is 7-2 (5-2 SEC) and ranked 13th in both the US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25. Both teams are coming off losses: the Gators were defeated by Oklahoma, 23-7, in the Swamp last weekend while the 'Cats sustained a 34-6 beatdown by Tennessee in Knoxville.

The Orange and Blue once dominated the series, winning 31 straight games between the two schools from 1987 to 2017, and still hold a significant lead in the all-time series, 54-22, but Kentucky has prevailed in four of the last five meetings and five of the past eight since snapping the three-plus-decade streak.

Ahead of Florida's Week 11 SEC showdown at Kroger Field, Gators Wire's staff convened to offer their expert predictions and picks for the matchup. Take a look below at what we had to say.

'We are counting on a change of fortune and an upset victory'

The Gators are averaging just under 13 points in their four losses this season, with a 27-point effort against Texas sandwiched in the middle across the last five games. Just when the defense appeared to be figuring some things out, the offense has mysteriously gone AWOL.

Perhaps part of the reason is the absence of Vernell Brown III, who has been out of action since his injury during the Ole Miss game, and also the futility of the running game, which had been among the most formidable in the country over the first four games of the season before evaporating before our eyes.

Kentucky’s defense has been decent this season, but nowhere near elite, ranking 44th overall in the SP+ ratings and 71st according to Pro Football Focus — which also ranks the run defense at 95th — so Florida’s offense could potentially figure things out. Hope springs eternal, so we are counting on a change of fortune in Week 11 and an upset victory for the Orange and Blue.

PREDICTION: Florida 24, Kentucky 20

'I still believe this team is too talented to drop three straight games'

Even with their two early-season losses, Florida’s previous two outings were the worst of the season. In the last two weeks, Florida has scored 15 points and allowed 50.

I still believe this team is too talented to drop three straight games, but they need to progress on offense if they want to beat a Kentucky team playing for a spot in the College Football Playoffs.

The Gators need to simplify the offense and move the ball up and down the field. At this point in the season, knowing what we know about this team, it’s safe to say they aren’t the same team from weeks 1-4, and that’s fine, but they need to find their new identity fast, or they’ll be staring at three straight losses and still searching for bowl eligibility.

PREDICTION: Florida 16, Kentucky 13

'Florida has enough talent to win this game'

Does anyone really know what the Florida Gators are going to do on any given week? Jon Sumrall seems to be just as lost as everyone else, and Kentucky is one of the surprise successes of the SEC this year. So, naturally, the Gators will get the upset done this week… right?

One thing Florida has going for it is that Kentucky doesn’t have a stellar passing game, averaging just 219.9 yards through the air. The Gators also have the more productive offense overall, averaging 32.4 points per game compared with Kentucky’s 29.9.

The problem is turnovers. Kentucky has picked off 12 passes while throwing just two interceptions, and Florida has thrown 10 picks of its own. That’s a recipe for disaster if Aaron Philo/Tramell Jones Jr. starts forcing throws, but the Wildcats aren’t exactly coming into this one with momentum after getting demolished by Tennessee.

Florida has enough talent to win this game, and the numbers suggest these teams are much closer than their records indicate. Maybe it’s foolish to trust the Gators again, but I’ve given up trying to make sense of this season.

PREDICTION: Florida 24, Kentucky 21

'Florida has experienced a significant offensive regression'

Florida has experienced a significant offensive regression in the last month, highlighted by the team’s lack of effectiveness on the ground. The Gators managed to net just 2.8 yards per carry against the Sooners and were held to a shocking 1.9 yards per carry in their loss to Georgia.

If Buster Faulker and company can’t gash Kentucky’s No. 92-ranked defense with explosive plays, UF’s chances of becoming bowl eligible could be in jeopardy. With Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones Jr. both struggling mightily, 15 points combined over the last two games is all the Gators could produce.

The Wildcats' scoring attack is led by Kenny Minchey, who has completed just a hair under 70% of his passes (186 of 266) for 1,979 yards and 14 scores against a pair of interceptions. There’s little reason to suspect an inconsistent Florida defense will be able to stop Kentucky, and playing from behind doesn’t bode well for Philo or Jones, who will have to play in obvious passing situations.

Without explosive plays, the Gators offense will struggle to sustain drives or find themselves in manageable third downs without a formidable run game. The Wildcats take advantage of home field and jump on Florida early to hand Sumrall his third straight loss.

PREDICTION: Kentucky 31, Florida 13

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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: Expert predictions, picks for Florida's Week 11 game vs Kentucky