Every week, ESPN writers Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura release an updated 'Bowl Projections' list and every week up to this point, Notre Dame was a lock for the College Football Playoffs. They were winners of 16 straight games dating back to September of the 2025 season and won all of those games by double digits. This past weekend, they lost to the undefeated BYU Cougars on the road 28-24 in a battle of two Top 10, undefeated teams. This week, the difference of opinion between Schlabach and Bonagura could not be more distinct.

Schlabach's CFP field consisted of BYU (1), Miami (2), Ohio State (3), Georgia (4), UCLA (5), Notre Dame (6), Ole Miss (7), Indiana (8), Texas Tech (9), Utah (10), Tennessee (11) and Boise State (12). He had the Irish hosting the Tennessee Volunteers in the first round of the playoffs, advancing to the quarterfinals to take on Ohio State. Schlabach projected Notre Dame to beat the Buckeyes and advance to the semifinals in a rematch with the Hurricanes and lose for a Miami-Georgia title game.

Bonagura's CFP field consisted of Miami (1), BYU (2), Ohio State (3), Georgia (4), Utah (5), UCLA (6), Texas Tech (7), Indiana (8), Tennessee (9), Ole Miss (10), Wake Forest (11) and Boise State (12). Notice anything different? In Bonagura's projection, the Irish miss the 12-team College Football Playoffs. Is it an overreaction to their four-point loss to BYU on the road this past weekend? Perhaps, but Notre Dame has only made the playoffs once under Marcus Freeman so it isn't a ludicrous thought.

Where things really take a turn is when they preview their bowl projections outside of the CFP. Bonagura doesn't have the Irish playing in a bowl game this season, and seeing that they're already bowl-eligible after picking up their sixth win over Stanford the week prior to their matchup with BYU, that can only mean one thing. He believes Notre Dame will sit out a bowl game, once again, if they don't make the 12-team playoff field.

Could it have been an oversight? Potentially, so I'm not ready to burn the house down by any means. But if this wasn't an oversight, then it's a gross overreaction to them sitting out their bowl game last season. In his playoff projection, if Miami gets the No. 1 seed, they finish the regular season undefeated meaning they'll beat Notre Dame in South Bend. The Irish would then go on to be a two-loss team and not be ranked in the Top 12 come Selection Sunday.

Notre Dame sitting out of the CFP last season was not simply about 'I didn't get my way, so now I'll pout' despite what many want to believe. If they don't make it this season, they simply didn't deserve to get in relative to the field of teams. Again, this could have been an oversight but this isn't unlike ESPN. Bonagura projected the Irish to play for the title against Ohio State back in August and after their first loss of the season, doesn't have them playing in the postseason in any fashion.

NOTRE DAME OPPONENTS

Both Schlabach and Bonagura have the Miami Hurricanes and the BYU Cougars receiving byes in the 2026 CFP. Schlabach has the Hurricanes advancing to the title game while Bonagura has the Cougars squaring off with Miami in the national championship. No other Notre Dame opponents from their 2026 regular season schedule make the 12-team playoff field, but three others play in the post season.

Wisconsin Badgers
Bonagura: vs North Carolina in the Pinstripe Bowl
Schlabach: vs Alabama in the Music City Bowl

North Carolina Tar Heels
Bonagura: vs Wisconsin in the Pinstripe Bowl
Schlabach: vs Northwestern in the Duke's Mayo Bowl

SMU Mustangs
Bonagura: vs Oklahoma State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl
Schlabach: vs Oklahoma State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl

------

Become a premium Irish Breakdown member, which grants you access to all of our premium content and our premium message board! Click on the link below for more.

BECOME A MEMBER

Be sure to stay locked into Irish Breakdown all the time!

Join the Irish Breakdown community!
Subscribe to the Irish Breakdown YouTube channel
Subscribe to the Irish Breakdown podcast on iTunes
Follow me on Twitter: @TTrow5
Like and follow Irish Breakdown on Facebook