College football Week 7 best bets: Northwestern, Missouri, Nebraska spread picks

Northwestern takes its first AP Top 25 ranking since 2020 to East Lansing in college football Week 7, and five of these seven best bets lay the points, with Missouri and Nebraska the only underdogs.

No. 10 Texas Tech lays 14.5 points against an Arizona State team that beat the Red Raiders 26-22 last season, and Pitt is a 6.5-point favorite at Boston College with quarterback Holden Geriner making his second career start. Five of the seven total picks take the under.

Hat tip to Game On Paper and ESPN FPI for providing a lot of the advanced stats and matchup data.

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Pittsburgh (-6.5) vs. Boston College

Pittsburgh Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi reacts on the sidelines against the Miami (OH) RedHawks | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 17, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Pitt (5-1, 2-1 ACC) lost its unbeaten record in a 21-17 home loss to North Carolina, when the Panthers were stopped on fourth down three times in the second half. Geriner completed 27 of 44 passes for 219 yards and two interceptions in his first college start after sophomore Mason Heintschel tore the ACL in his right knee against Virginia Tech.

Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi said Geriner “will get better and better just from the experiences.”

Boston College (2-3) is still looking for its first ACC win, and it committed 11 penalties for 95 yards in a 25-16 loss at SMU before its bye. “We work very hard to coach a disciplined team,” Eagles coach Bill O’Brien said afterward.

BC has outscored opponents 40-9 in the first quarter, but it trails 108-55 the rest of the way and hasn’t scored more than 28 points in a game. Pitt allows 3.00 yards per rush, so the Eagles should face plenty of long passing downs. A Panthers defense that controls the line of scrimmage and an offense still adjusting to a new quarterback point to the under 42.5.

Picks: Pittsburgh 27-13, Pittsburgh -6.5, U42.5

Northwestern (-7.5) vs. Michigan State

Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Aidan Chiles (0) looks to pass against the Ball State Cardinals | David Banks-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 17, 12 p.m. ET, Peacock

No. 25 Northwestern (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) beat Ball State 45-14 as quarterback Aidan Chiles threw three touchdown passes and ran for another. Chiles started 20 games over two seasons at Michigan State before transferring to Evanston, and he has nine touchdown passes and six rushing scores this season. Wildcats receiver Griffin Wilde caught eight passes for 144 yards against Ball State.

Northwestern also beat Penn State 34-13 on Oct. 2, and its only loss came 29-23 at Indiana.

Michigan State (2-4, 0-3) lost 38-37 in overtime to Illinois when Alessio Milivojevic’s two-point pass fell incomplete. First-year Spartans coach Pat Fitzgerald, who spent 17 seasons as Northwestern’s head coach, said: “This week and this game is not about me.” Northwestern coach David Braun added, “This isn’t about Aidan playing his former program.”

Northwestern ranks first nationally in offensive adjusted EPA per play, and Michigan State lost its first two Big Ten games to Nebraska and Wisconsin by 18 and 28 points. The Spartans scored 37 against Illinois, though, and the Wildcats’ defense is less dominant than their offense, which points to the over 49.5.

Picks: Northwestern 34-21, Northwestern -7.5, O49.5

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Arizona State vs. Texas Tech (-14.5)

Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Will Hammond (15) prepares to pass in the first quarter against the Colorado Buffaloes | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 17, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox

No. 10 Texas Tech (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) returns from a bye after a 29-7 win at Colorado, when the Red Raiders intercepted four passes and scored 29 unanswered points. Linebacker John Curry returned one of those interceptions for a touchdown. Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire called it “some really ugly football at times,” and quarterback Will Hammond threw for just 134 yards.

Still, Tech allows 91.4 rushing yards per game and brings an 11-game home winning streak into homecoming in Lubbock.

Arizona State (3-2, 1-1) rallied from a 12-point fourth-quarter deficit to beat Tech 26-22 in Tempe last October. This Sun Devils roster brought in 48 newcomers, however, and it lost 48-20 at Texas A&M and 55-19 at home to Baylor. Freshman running back Cardae Mack ran for 154 yards on 13 carries against Hawaii, and receiver Reed Harris has 34 catches for 590 yards.

Tech’s run defense should put the game in quarterback Cutter Boley’s hands against a secondary with seven interceptions in its last two games. The Red Raiders’ offense hasn’t consistently pulled away from opponents, so the defense carries this cover, and the under 48.5 fits that script.

Picks: Texas Tech 31-13, Texas Tech -14.5, U48.5

Missouri (+5.5) vs. Ole Miss

Missouri Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons (13) hands off to running back Jamal Roberts (20) against the Texas A&M Aggies | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 17, 3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network

No. 13 Missouri (5-1, 2-1 SEC) has beaten Florida and Texas A&M by 28 and 21 points since blowing a late lead at Mississippi State. Quarterback Austin Simmons returns to Oxford, where he opened 2025 as the Rebels’ starter before an ankle injury handed the job to Trinidad Chambliss. Simmons has thrown for one yard fewer than Chambliss this season, with more touchdowns and fewer interceptions.

“He prepared like he was a starter if he ever got his moment,” Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz said of Simmons.

No. 9 Ole Miss (4-1, 2-1) beat Vanderbilt 52-17 last week but gave up 52 points at Florida in its previous game. The Rebels also rank last in the SEC in run defense at 176.4 yards per game, and Tigers running back Jamal Roberts leads Power 4 players with 828 rushing yards.

Ole Miss has the better offense, but a Missouri defense that allows 4.85 yards per play can keep Chambliss from turning this into a shootout. Roberts running behind that line should shorten the game, which points to a one-possession finish and the under 58.5.

Picks: Missouri 30-27, Missouri +5.5, U58.5

MORE: College football Week 7 prediction market picks: Missouri, UNC upset potential

Oklahoma State vs. Houston (-4.5)

Houston Cougars tight end Patrick Overmyer (9) is tackled by Kansas State Wildcats cornerback Donovan McIntosh (9) | Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 17, 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox

No. 20 Houston (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) beat Kansas State 35-16 as quarterback Conner Weigman threw four touchdown passes to tight end Patrick Overmyer. TDECU Stadium hosts its first ranked-vs.-ranked game since 2015, and Houston coach Willie Fritz said the game has “a lot of implications for the Big 12 race.”

No. 18 Oklahoma State (4-1, 2-0) has won four straight under first-year coach Eric Morris since a 24-10 opening loss at Tulsa. Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker threw for 304 yards in a 42-28 win over UCF, and Fritz expects him to run as well.

Houston won 39-17 in Stillwater last season, and Weigman’s passing efficiency gives the Cougars a steadier offense than an Oklahoma State team still learning a new system. The Cowboys have the better defense, so the margin should stay within reach of 4.5. With both teams scoring at least 35 points last week, the over 62.5 is the play.

Picks: Houston 35-30, Houston -4.5, O62.5

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Wake Forest (-9.5) vs. California

Wake Forest Demon Deacons quarterback Gio Lopez (3) looks to throw during the first quarter against the Louisville Cardinals | Chris Carter-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 17, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

No. 21 Wake Forest (5-1, 3-1 ACC) has won three straight, including road wins at Louisville and NC State. Quarterback Gio Lopez completed 26 of 33 passes for 303 yards and three touchdowns in the 38-14 win in Raleigh. The Demon Deacons haven’t allowed a second-half point in two straight games.

Cal (3-3, 2-1) beat Virginia Tech 25-20 on Ashten Emory’s 2-yard touchdown run with 18 seconds left. Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele missed that game with a concussion from the loss at UNLV. When Cal coach Tosh Lupoi pulled him because he saw his quarterback come off the field “literally wobbling.”

Starting running back Adam Mohammed also sat with a foot injury. Cal ran for just 82 yards with backup Jackson Brousseau under center. The Bears allow 6.24 yards per carry. Wake should be able to sustain drives on the ground and protect a lead. Wake’s results have also come against a tougher schedule than Cal’s. The Demon Deacons defense has shut down second-half points, pointing to the under 53.5.

Picks: Wake Forest 31-20, Wake Forest -9.5, U53.5

Nebraska (+7) vs. Oregon

Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule signals from the sideline against the Indiana Hoosiers | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

• Kickoff: Saturday, October 17, 11 p.m. ET, Fox

Nebraska (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) led then-No. 7 Indiana 17-6 early in the fourth quarter before losing 20-17. That outcome came despite outgaining the Hoosiers 391-328. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea threw for 263 yards and broke a 39-yard touchdown run. The loss was Nebraska’s 31st straight against a Top 25 opponent. Six of the Huskers’ 10 losses to ranked teams under Nebraska coach Matt Rhule have been decided by seven points or fewer.

Oregon (3-2, 1-1) fell out of the AP Top 25 after a 17-15 home loss to UCLA in which it committed seven turnovers. Ducks starter Dante Moore missed that game with a concussion sustained against USC on Sept. 26, and former Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola completed 6 of 19 passes for 43 yards and two interceptions before being benched for Brock Thomas.

Rhule declined to discuss facing his former quarterback. “I’m best if I talk about our team,” he said.

Nebraska leads Oregon in adjusted EPA differential, +0.28 to +0.18. The Ducks still hold the edge on defense and special teams at Autzen Stadium. So a full seven points is the value here. Oregon’s quarterback uncertainty and Nebraska’s 37-point game against Indiana point to the under 51.5.

Picks: Oregon 27-24, Nebraska +7, U51.5

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