College Football Predictions, Picks: Our Staff’s Week 8 Best Bets for Saturday Night

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We have two top-20 matchups taking place during the Week 8 college football night slate.

Our staff will cover those two matchups and more as part of our four best bets.

So, read below for four college football predictions and picks for the night games on Saturday, October 24.

Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!

College Football Picks for Saturday Night

By Kyle Hunter

Clemson‘s offense has been terrible so far this season, ranking 126th nationally in Offensive Success Rate and 129th in PPA/Pass.

The Tigers also sit 132nd in QBR, so the passing game has been anemic. The Clemson run game has been slightly better, but it’s only 96th in the nation in yards per carry.

Clemson wants to run the football, but that plays into the strength of the Virginia Tech defense. The Hokies lead the nation in Offensive Line Yards allowed and Stuff Rate while coming in at 14th in yards per carry allowed.

The Tigers are only 89th in Offensive Line Yards, and they’re likely to have a hard time pushing around this Virginia Tech defensive front.

Clemson ranks 124th in the nation in Points Per Opportunity on offense. The Tigers have scored a touchdown on only 40% of their trips into the red zone this season.

Virginia Tech is weaker in the secondary on defense, ranking 100th in PPA/Pass allowed.

Clemson quarterback Tait Reynolds hasn’t been able to stretch the field at all, though, and I don’t expect that to change overnight.

Pick: Clemson Team Total Under 26.5

By Mike Ianniello

We have two polar opposites going at it on Saturday in San Marcos.

Utah State has scored just 14.5 points per game this season and has yet to eclipse 21 points. The offense in Logan has been horrendous this year. The quarterback play is a mess, and they can’t run the ball at all.

The Aggies average the fewest rushing yards per game, and their two rushing scores are the fewest in the entire country.

Even in their comeback win against Washington State, the Aggies totaled just 236 total yards of offense.

That offense will be tasked now with keeping up with the best offense in the Pac-12. Texas State has averaged 40 points per game this season and leads the conference with 562.3 yards per game.

The Bobcats are top 10 in the country in Success Rate and combine a rushing attack that rivals the service academies with a veteran quarterback throwing the ball to two stud wide receivers.

Utah State has a strong defense, but nobody has been able to slow down this Texas State offense other than Texas. The Bobcats are going to be able to move the ball; the question is just if Utah State can keep up.

As bad as this Texas State defense has been, I don’t see a world where Utah State can keep this close. The Aggies have not had any success throwing or running the ball this season.

As bad as Texas State has been on defense, its 111th ranking in Success Rate looks a lot better than Utah State sitting at 134th on offense.

The Bobcats are built to take the lead and then continue running downhill and run up the score on teams. Once this offense gets rolling, there is nothing Utah State will be able to do to keep up, even against a leaky defense.

Texas State has already been favored by more than 10 points twice this season. It won those games by 53 and 39 points, scoring more than 60 in both of them.

Back the Bobs to run it up again.

Pick: Texas State -13.5

By Collin Wilson

Steve Sarkisian wants the Longhorns to establish a run game, a realistic deliverable against Ole Miss. The Rebels must defend outside zone against Texas, a run concept with which the Rebels produce a modest 48% success rate with minimal negative plays.

Running back Hollywood Smothers has been ineffective because of poor offensive line blocking, but he generated a season-high 67 yards against a Tennessee defense that also had mid-FBS success with outside zone.

There is no expectation Ole Miss will generate pressure or sacks on Arch Manning, as the Longhorns’ offensive line ranks 11th in pass protection.

The good news for Texas is the explosive coverage against quarters, as Manning has a 58% success rate against the concept. The Rebels’ poor tackle grade of 97th could help the Longhorns get into scoring position.

The biggest factor in the game is the absence of Colin Simmons at edge for the Texas defense, as Trinidad Chambliss outside the tackles can be a nightmare to defend.

EDGEs Zina Umeozulu and Richard Wesley must pick up the slack in creating Havoc, a near-impossible task as Simmons is the second-highest-graded edge in pass rush productivity, per PFF.

The Action Network projects Texas as a 6.5-point favorite, signaling an ultimate buy-low, sell-high opportunity exists. Texas’ two-game losing streak, with Ole Miss’ two-game blowout, has settled the number on a field goal.

Ultimately, the loss of Simmons will allow Ole Miss to avoid drive-ending havoc from Texas. Look to buy low on a Texas team full of questions, while the poor Ole Miss defense and the loss of Simmons for the Longhorns should increase scoring opportunities and put the over in play.

Pick: Texas -3.5

By Evan Abrams

A top-15 battle between 6-1 Houston (ranked 14th in the AP Poll) and undefeated Utah (10th in the AP Poll) takes center stage in a late-night game on ESPN on Saturday.

This matchup could have major playoff implications. Houston is looking for a quality victory behind Conner Weigman and tries to avoid its second loss of the season.

Meanwhile, Utah has been impressive under first-year head coach Morgan Scalley. This will be the stiffest test of the Utes’ season, though, and even though they’re home, I have a Bet Labs Sports Insights system that says Houston against the spread (+6.5) is the play.

This system — called “CFB Sharp Money (FADE)” — has a 3% return on investment (ROI) all-time and a strong 6% ROI this season alone (37-30 record overall).

Here’s more on how this particular system works:

This is a Fade System — CFB Sharp Money Fade in NCAAF Spread tells the story of a regular season college football matchup where the betting market appears to signal confidence from larger wagers but that signal has become less reliable in recent years.

When the difference between money share and ticket share grows large it traditionally implied that influential bettors were backing one side while the public leaned the other way.

In the modern college football market however information moves quickly and public participation has grown, creating situations where perceived sharp indicators can actually represent late crowd momentum rather than true professional conviction.

When the number of bets sits in a moderate range the market has enough activity to shape perception but not enough depth to fully stabilize the price.

In this environment fading the side attracting the disproportionate money support becomes a contrarian stance that assumes the market has overreacted to what looks like smart action, allowing the opposite team to quietly outperform expectations once the game unfolds on the field.

Pick: Houston +6.5