College Football Playoff ranking, odds: Best bets to make, miss the CFP right now

Last week, we looked at what NFL bets look the best around the midseason point of the season. This week, ahead of Tuesday night's initial College Football Playoff rankings reveal that will inspire bracket graphics throughout the land, bettors should be thinking about another crucial graphic.

Last year's first College Football Playoff rankings are below. It acts as a reminder that what's posted in early November is probably going to look a lot different by mid-December. Four of the 12 teams didn't end up making the playoff. Alabama went from having a bye to going on the road in the first round. And Miami didn't just make it in, it got to the National Championship game. While the first announcement feels important, betting opportunities should be ample with so many big games left to play.

As a framework for our betting, here's a projection of how many teams might make the playoff from each conference:

SEC: 5

Big Ten: 2

Big 12: 2

ACC: 1

Group of Six: 1

Other Power Four: 1

Starting here, you can work out the path to valuable bets on either side of the line of demarcation that is the CFP committee's top-12 teams.

Best bets to make the playoff

Ole Miss (-150, DraftKings)

If Texas beats Missouri this week, we'll be one game (LSU over Texas) away from the very real possibility that LSU, Texas, and Ole Miss, find themselves in a two-loss circle of results in the SEC.

Where might the CFP committee find a tiebreaker amidst that chaos?

Anyone who beats Georgia (and has enough other credentials) should get ranked ahead of the others.

Ole Miss has a free shot at an express pass to the CFP should the Rebels get a win at home over the Bulldogs this Saturday. Even if they don't top Georgia, who cares? Join the club. Wins over LSU, Missouri and the non-conference neutral site win over Louisville should get the Rebels rewarded. Having Trinidad Chambliss and a team that made a run last season definitely helps. Especially when the alternatives are Lane Kiffin, and the consistently tumultuous Texas.

Texas Tech (+250, DraftKings)

Either BYU beats Utah, leaving the Utes potentially out of the Big 12 championship, or Utah beats BYU, and we likely get a "Holy War" rematch — which means two losses are going into that column in some way or another. Meanwhile, Texas Tech — having potentially found something offensively with the shift to Thomas Castellanos at quarterback — has a trip to Oklahoma State as its toughest task to finish the regular season at 11-1. They'd either get a shot in the Big 12 title game, or sit at home and watch either BYU or Utah take (at least) their second loss. For a committee that's valued record as the starting point for rankings, the Red Raiders are at least 50/50 to find their way in from the outside.

New Mexico (+260, FanDuel)

While you were sleeping, two major things happened in the Group of Six landscape late on Saturday:

• Oregon State took a third loss (to Fresno State)
• Boise State barely beat Texas State, but lost starting quarterback Maddux Madsen

Essentially, the entire Pac-12 took a hit. With Oregon State and Boise State set to play each other potentially twice, the Broncos will have to beat the Beavers twice with Max Cutforth at the helm, and if they don't, New Mexico should step right in as the "G6" Playoff nominee.

The Lobos' lone loss, 14-6 at Oklahoma, is impressive, and their tricky games down the stretch are at Wyoming (New Mexico should be a touchdown favorite), Air Force (on its third-string quarterback) and a likely home game for the conference title.

Tennessee (+300, DraftKings)

Before accounting for the vig, the Volunteers are deemed to have a better than 70% chance of beating Kentucky on Saturday, which would give the Vols the tiebreaker in the SEC over the Wildcats and Alabama Crimson Tide.

Tennessee's on its second quarterback, having gone away from Faizon Brandon (who took 10 sacks in a home loss to Texas) to George McIntyre, but the Vols defense might be the best in the conference (lowest EPA/Play allowed).

Their remaining road games come against two disappointing teams — Texas A&M and Vanderbilt — and the Vols get LSU at Neyland Stadium (the Tigers are 1-2 on the road). A good spot to earn another "tiebreaker" amidst the complex swirl of the SEC.

Long shot: South Carolina (12-1, DraftKings)

South Carolina, a school that many think deserved to get in after a hot finish to 2024, have a real opportunity to impress down the stretch, and, like most humans, committee members are prone to reacting to what they've seen most recently.

After dropping an overtime game to Kentucky, the Gamecocks blew out Florida at The Swamp, knocked off Tennessee and blew out Oklahoma in Norman. With three losses already, that's not enough to be more than barely ranked in the polls, but the Gamecocks are the other team with the opportunity to host Georgia.

They might be a touchdown underdog at home in that one, but with their other three games (vs. Texas A&M, at Arkansas, at Clemson) all winnable, at 12-1 odds, a potential seven-game winning streak (and not having to play in the SEC title game), with LaNorris Sellers at the helm, could have South Carolina in the tournament this time around.

Of course, even if it's just one of Tennessee or South Carolina in, profitable as current underdogs, some big-name teams might get left out.

Best bets to miss the playoff

Alabama (+225, Bet365)

In the same vein as above, LSU could also find itself in a scenario where it loses to Alabama, who lost to Tennessee, who could lose to LSU in Week 12 at Neyland Stadium, in a separate roundabout. However, two different favorites have to fall at home for this to happen, and we're trying to stay in line with the most likely results according to the betting market, as best we can.

So, can Alabama or LSU get in if it loses this Saturday?

With a loss, Alabama's best wins would then be at Kentucky, and on the road to South Carolina, without anything of note since September.

If LSU loses, the Tigers are in the same boat, as the Clemson blowout win to start the season looks more like no big deal, but at least they have two more chances to impress down the stretch (vs. Texas, at Tennessee). Plus, the Tigers are 5.5-point favorites at home this weekend (~66% to win).

Yet, the Tigers are +135 to miss the CFP, but the Tide are +225.

The SEC is going to end up with a loaded group of three-loss teams, and without winning in Baton Rouge, Alabama's "good wins" aren't going to stack up with the others.

Could they win as +185 underdogs in Baton Rouge? Of course, but holding a +225 ticket on Bama to miss the CFP has a great chance to gain value very soon.

UCLA (+150, FanDuel)

The Big Ten is an Indiana win over USC in Week 11 away from having its own three-team carousel with Ohio State, making that trio untouchable from a betting perspective, but that doesn't mean they can't all get in. Of course, the Big Ten might just be a two-bid league, especially if this season's Cinderella has its Hollywood story turn into a pumpkin.

Whether it's Bob Chesney, or someone else over at UCLA, the Bruins are living a charmed life this season.

No. 5 in the AP poll, probably close to that in the first CFP rankings, and atop the Big Ten standings, give credit to UCLA for having won the games. However, its opponents are 17-23, three of the last four have been forced to play backup quarterbacks and another has already fired its head coach.

Maybe there's more good fortune in the future, but UCLA has to go to upset-minded Minnesota, host Illinois, go to Michigan, and then take on USC in the crosstown rivalry, which could decide a playoff spot in Week 13.

If the Bruins, with their own No. 2 quarterback Ty Dieffenbach (59% pass completions, 2 TD, INT, in two starts), drop two of those, they will either miss the Big Ten title game or set themselves up for a third loss in Indianapolis. All without a signature win, as Oregon's profile gets worse by the week.

Wake Forest (-130, DraftKings)

Simply put, if Wake Forest loses at SMU in Week 11 or in the ACC title game, it's likely out of the mix for the College Football Playoff.

A loss to the Mustangs puts the Demon Deacons into a tiebreaker vortex for the conference, and they won't likely get a chance to get a signature win. Even if they do make the ACC title game, losing to Miami a second time will leave a bad taste on a team whose best win is over 5-3 Louisville.

The ACC is so lackluster that a two-loss non-champion is likely to get passed over in our "other" category by a team with three losses and better wins.

The mega-long shot: Miami (22-1, FanDuel)

November losses are nothing new to Miami, and the Hurricanes are already an underdog at Notre Dame this Saturday.

What if the Hurricanes don't win the ACC championship game?

The resume could indicate that they're just another two-loss team without a win over a ranked team, if Wake Forest drops a game down the stretch.

Miami would be anywhere from -6.5 to SMU to -10 in a rematch with Wake Forest, but the underdog moneyline wouldn't be anywhere near 22-1.

Based on value in the betting market alone, here's how the CFP top 12 could shake out:

National champion

Notre Dame (+550, DraftKings)

The key to getting value out of a national championship futures bet is to back a team that ends up with the best possible path once the playoffs start.

We've discussed the probability of two- and three-loss teams making the College Football Playoff, which means if Notre Dame beats Miami on Saturday (effectively clinching a postseason berth), the Irish should earn a top-four seed, as others melt away record-wise.

Given the depth of contenders making up the eventual 5-11 seeds, it doesn't really matter which of the top four seeds Notre Dame gets, but its path to a first-round bye is the simplest: Just win in South Bend on Saturday night, and it won't matter whether the Irish are in the top four of the first CFP rankings on Tuesday night.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.