College Football Picks, Predictions: Expert Week 6 Bets for Texas vs. Oklahoma, Georgia vs. Alabama, More

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Week 6 of the college football season is here. We have a few top-25 matchups on deck this week, along with much more.

It all starts on Friday night, when the No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes head west to Seattle as they look to avenge their first loss of the season against the Washington Huskies.

On Saturday, we’ll begin in Dallas for the Red River Rivalry, as the top-ranked Texas Longhorns take on the Oklahoma Sooners in one of the best rivalries in college football.

At the same time, we’ll make our way back to the Pacific Northwest, where the No. 13 Oregon Ducks welcome the No. 21 UCLA Bruins in a matchup between former Pac-12 foes.

To wrap things up, we’ll head to Tuscaloosa for a top-10 SEC showdown between the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs and No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide.

With so much to get to, let’s dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the Week 6 games on Saturday, October 10.

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College Football Picks, Predictions

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Week 6’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Iowa came up short of the cover against Ohio State in Week 5, as a 17-point loss marked the first of the season for the Hawkeyes.

The offense produced a single methodical drive in 10 offensive possessions while committing two turnovers with an interception and a lost fumble.

The Rush EPA numbers that were supported by explosives from the Northern Iowa and Northern Illinois contests didn’t materialize against the Buckeyes.

Iowa failed to create a 12-yard rushing gain, so quarterback Hank Brown had to attempt 27 passes.

Nearly half of Brown’s total pressures on the season came against the Buckeyes, leading to two turnover-worthy plays. An AC joint sprain is now a part of the equation, leaving Brown’s availability for Washington in question.

The Hawkeyes’ defense was torched in the passing game, as the Julian Sayin-to-Jeremiah Smith connection produced over 200 yards and two touchdowns.

Iowa won’t see a combination that potent again this season, but there are question marks around defensive coordinator Phil Parker’s rank of 92nd in Passing Success Rate allowed.

The good news is a stingy rush defense that rarely allows methodical drives with a top-30 rank in Defensive Finishing Drives. The four-man front has produced a pass rush rank inside the top 35 and an opponent Rush EPA rank of second in FBS.

Washington’s narrow loss on the road to USC produced one of its best offensive outputs of the season. The Huskies averaged 5.3 overall yards per play, more than the Trojans for the contest.

Quarterback Demond Williams produced a pair of methodical drives, as scrambling has become the calling card for the signal-caller.

Despite USC recording five sacks, 11 other pressure downs allowed Williams to create on the run outside the tackles. Washington converted three of its four attempts on fourth down, extending drives for a near upset.

Defensively, Washington boasts top-35 analytics across the board, a boost after a big jump in strength of schedule.

The Huskies’ numbers were verified after facing a Trojans team that came in as one of the more explosive offenses in the nation. Washington limited USC to just a single explosive drive on 11 offensive possessions, as it gained less than the national average in available yards.

Washington won the battle in yards per play and allowed just 5-of-14 third downs to be converted.

Coordinator Ryan Walters’ nickel defense plays a higher level of man coverage and also ranks fourth among all FBS teams in Stuff Rate.

Iowa could be at a disadvantage in the passing game with an injury to Brown under center.

However, the first handicap comes with the offense’s run concepts. The Hawkeyes generally lean toward outside zone, led by running back Kamari Moulton.

Washington has been fantastic on defense against the rush, ranking top-five in Stuff Rate and top-25 in Success Rate allowed.

The Huskies have seen outside zone more than any other run concept, producing a high 58% Success Rate while giving opponents a negative EPA.

The Hawkeyes’ pass rush has the advantage against a Huskies offensive line that’s mid-FBS when it comes to protecting Williams. The junior has already faced 78 pressures in 205 dropbacks, the highest rate of his career.

The issue for Iowa is Washington’s ability to create explosives thanks to busted plays. Williams has posted four turnover-worthy plays to just a single mistake when blitzed this season.

The results have been hit and miss when Parker calls a blitz. Iowa has created a negative play on 17% of attempts compared to a 14% big-play conversion by the opposing offense.

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings call for Washington to be favored by a field goal, giving no edge to the current market.

However, the Huskies have all the checkmarks outside of the projection thanks to Brown’s injury, Washington’s defensive dominance against outside zone and Williams’ ability to create outside the pocket.

Pick: Washington -3.5

The Longhorns survived a trip to Knoxville with a low-scoring 20-17 victory over Tennessee.

While the defense has thrived under new coordinator Will Muschamp, the offense is looking for answers in a number of gaps.

Texas now sits 127th in Havoc allowed, a measurement of an offense’s ability to trim fumbles, interceptions, tackles for loss and any other offensive momentum killer.

The Longhorns rank 112th in tackles for loss allowed and have also found a bit of luck by losing only two of their eight fumbles this season.

The Horns’ inept rushing attack has generated one of the lowest rates of standard downs, ranking 115th in EPA when the offense stays on schedule.

Running back Raleek Brown did the heavy lifting in the win over the Volunteers, posting two touchdowns and 67 rushing yards. The potential return of fellow back Hollywood Smothers would boost the backfield, but the offensive line sits outside the top 100 in Line Yards .

There are concerns in the passing game as well, with future NFL wide receiver Cam Coleman receiving just two targets in the victory over Tennessee.

Wide receivers Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley V have more targets than the Auburn transfer. That has played a role in the passing attack led by quarterback Arch Manning ranking outside the top 60 in EPA.

The defense has saved this team in its wins over Ohio State and Tennessee. Muschamp’s nickel defense owns a top-25 pass rush despite a mid-FBS blitz rate.

A top-20 rank in Havoc can be attributed to the EDGE position, as Colin Simmons and Lance Jackson have combined for 32 pressures. Simmons alone has eight sacks on the season and ranks as the third-most disruptive EDGE in FBS, per PFF’s pass-rush productivity rankings.

Texas has been even better when an opponent drive crossed the Longhorns’ 40-yard line, as 21 scoring opportunities have produced an average of 2.2 points .

The Oklahoma defense is in desperate need of health entering the Red River Rivalry.

Key players at all three levels sat out against Georgia, as the Bulldogs rang the Sooners defense up for 41 points with a ground attack that averaged 5.3 yards per play.

Head coach Brent Venables fields a defense that remains in the top 10 from a Success Rate and EPA perspective, but the SEC Availability Report will be crucial for the Sooners.

Injuries haven’t played as big a role on offense, but Oklahoma’s lack of ball discipline has plagued it all season.

The Sooners rank 128th in Havoc allowed, with numerous lowlight reels focusing on quarterback John Mateer. The fifth-year senior had three crushing fumbles in Week 4, resulting in a number of Georgia scores.

OU’s offense has recorded six fumbles, and all six were recovered by the defense.

When Havoc hasn’t been present, the Sooners have been one of the worst rushing offenses in the nation, with bottom-15 ranks in Success Rate, EPA, Stuff Rate and Line Yards .

Even worse are the cumulative numbers on what has stalled the offensive possessions, as Oklahoma has ended drives with six fumbles, four interceptions, three fourth-down turnovers and two missed field goals.

Georgia gashed the Oklahoma defense with a 56% Success Rate on 25 rushing attempts.

The Bulldogs played twice as many offensive snaps in standard downs as passing downs, raising the question as to what run concepts the Sooners struggle to defend.

Georgia attacked Oklahoma with an even mix of rushing attempts using inside zone and man-blocking schemes. Texas has been potent with both run concepts, posting a 57% Success Rate with man blocking and 63% with inside zone .

The numbers are grim when it comes to Oklahoma scoring against the Longhorns. Still, there’s an edge on the projected total of 45, considering the market has sunk closer to the key number of 38.

An over in this game could come down to field position through turnovers and special teams touchdowns . Two of the best returners in college football will field punts in this defensive game, as Isaiah Sategna III and Ryan Niblett each have two career return touchdowns.

The availability report update for Oklahoma confirmed a couple of key players who will miss the Red River Rivalry.

Wide receiver Trell Harris won’t be an option for Mateer in the passing game, and starting left guard Eddy Pierre-Louis is questionable.

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings have the Longhorns favored by 11, giving the edge to any of the dead numbers that reside in the market between 7 and 10.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has owned Oklahoma’s Brent Venables in this series the past two seasons, outscoring the Sooners by a total of 48 points .

Special teams and potential defensive scores are always at a higher probability in the Red River Rivalry, and 2026 should see nothing less.

Pick: Texas -7.5 or Better · Texas D/ST Anytime TD +500

UCLA head coach Bob Chesney will visit Eugene once again after covering as James Madison’s head coach in the College Football Playoff last season.

The move to Los Angeles has been flawless to this point, with his team scoring at least 45 points in three of its four wins.

The Bruins are undefeated but with an asterisk that points to one of the softest strength-of-schedule ranks in the country.

Nevertheless, the offense is heavily ground-based, with five different run concepts getting at least 20 rushing attempts this season.

James Madison transfer Wayne Knight has been a star for the Bruins, averaging 9.1 yards per attempt with a ridiculous 5.9 yards after first contact .

The defense has also improved under new management, earning a top-35 rank in Havoc and allowing opponents to run methodical drives.

Coordinator Colin Hitschler has no issues with aggressiveness through his 3-3-5 personnel, sending blitz on 43% of defensive snaps with a 60% Success Rate.

There are a few concerning numbers for UCLA in the soft part of the schedule, including a near-dead last rank in penalties. UCLA averages 10 penalties a game, a total eclipsed only by Syracuse this season.

After a single month of play, the Oregon Ducks have packed in enough storylines for an entire season.

Quarterback Dante Moore was tipping off plays on film in the opener against Boise State, as noted by Oklahoma State linebackers. The result was a Ducks loss in steamy Stillwater in Week 2.

Oregon regrouped in Week 3 against FCS Portland State, extracting the sour taste from a nonconference loss with an 84-0 whooping of the Vikings.

In a game against USC two weeks ago, Moore was carted off the field with a concussion after a late hit. The future NFL signal-caller doesn’t have a timetable for a return, so Nebraska transfer Dylan Raiola has taken over the reins for Oregon.

The Oregon defense is still rounding into shape after preseason expectations had the Ducks challenging for the National Championship.

The Ducks are the seventh-best pass-rush team in the nation, as three edge players have combined to create at least 10 pressures.

Oregon has achieved a top-20 grade in tackling thanks to the three top tacklers recording just three missed tackles on the season.

While the analytics still have lingering negative numbers from the first two games of the season, this is the top third-down defense in the nation . On 52 opponent third downs, Oregon has allowed only 11 conversions through four games.

There’s a massive strength-of-schedule difference between these two teams, with UCLA ranking 113th and Oregon coming in at 21st.

The first handicap is the Ducks’ ability to slow down Knight and the Bruins’ ground game. UCLA has a number of concepts in its arsenal, including zone read, power, man-blocking assignments and counter.

While most rushing attempts come in 11 personnel, a double-tight end set is most frequently seen when the Bruins run outside zone and counter. If there’s an advantage for head coach Dan Lanning, these are the same concepts James Madison used in the CFP last December .

Oregon has yet to face an offense that utilizes 12 personnel in the run game, but its Success Rate against all the run concepts above has been neutral.

The Ducks’ advantage will come in passing attempts by UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The former Tennessee signal-caller has a massive 30% drop in adjusted completion percentage under pressure, which Oregon will force with a top-10 pass rush.

The opposite can be noted for the UCLA defense, as its pass rush rank sits mid-FBS despite a heavy reliance on the blitz.

Raiola struggled under pressure while with Nebraska a season ago, leading to a turnover-worthy play rate jump from 2.2% to 7.3%. The difference with Oregon may be the outside weapons in the flats, which could provide relief against UCLA’s blitzing.

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings call for Oregon to win by two touchdowns, giving limited value to the Ducks in the market.

The biggest unknown in this game is Raiola’s output after a full week of practice.

However, there’s a heavy focus on UCLA’s offense. Knight and Iamaleava will lead a pure ground-based attack with many negative statistics that fall in the passing game.

The Bruins have generated a poor Success Rate, and their pass blocking ranks come from one of the easiest schedules in the nation.

Look to the over on any Iamaleava sack props, but other wagers on the Bruins should focus on their team total under. Oregon may elect to put an additional defender in the box against a heavy UCLA rush attack that uses multiple run concepts.

The Ducks have missed just three tackles in the second level, so expect UCLA to be limited in terms of explosiveness.

Pick: UCLA Team Total Under 23

Georgia hasn’t won in Tuscaloosa since 2007, but don’t tell that to head coach Kirby Smart, who has mowed down opponents in 2026.

The Bulldogs have played a soft strength of schedule, ranked 97th, beating up on inept offenses such as Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Western Kentucky.

The Dawgs have won with margin, but a real test of an established rushing attack will commence in Tuscaloosa.

The one-two punch of Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens in the rush attack has produced 11 touchdowns and a top-10 rank in success rate, but Bowens has been ruled out for Saturday.

The passing attack led by Gunner Stockton also ranks top-10 in Success Rate, as the senior is producing the best year of his career. Stockton has yet to commit a turnover-worthy play on the back of a 13:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

An average depth of target rise to 8.2 yards is the largest of his career, all creating better field position for an offense that ranks sixth in third-down conversions.

Defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann has been business as usual with the Georgia defense, producing another terrorizing version that’s top-30 in Havoc and top-five in Methodical Drives allowed.

The Bulldogs are generally light in pass rush rankings because of the low blitz, four-man dependency. This season has been a different ballgame, as three players have already created double-digit pressures.

The Bulldogs have also had no issues with opposing rush explosives, ranking sixth in defensive EPA.

Alabama has surpassed preseason expectations with an offensive arsenal that has lit up five opponents. The Crimson Tide’s lowest offensive output came in Week 2 with 45 points against Kentucky.

Head coach Kalen DeBoer has overmatched an offense that excels late in the half, generating top-four scoring marks in the second and fourth quarters this season.

Quarterback Keelon Russell has staked his claim in the race for the Heisman, adding three more passing touchdowns against Mississippi State in Week 5.

Russell has committed just three turnover-worthy plays in 161 dropbacks, as the trio all came against a Kentucky defense that flashed Cover 2.

The rush attack sits top-10 in Success Rate despite an offensive line that has dipped outside the top 50 in Stuff Rate and Line Yards.

Running backs Daniel Hill and EJ Crowell have forced a combined 30 missed tackles. Crowell averages 6.7 yards after first contact, already creating five explosive runs on the season.

On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack has another bruising defense for the Crimson Tide, but there have been a couple of holes in the advanced numbers.

Alabama grades out at 59th in tackling, per PFF, while its Defensive Finishing Drives rank sits outside the top 100.

There could be noise in terms of opponent scoring opportunities, as only 21 opponent drives in five games have crossed the 40-yard line. Alabama has surrendered an average of 3.9 points to teams that get into scoring position.

The hot topic of this game will be Hurricane Isaias, which is expected to make landfall Friday night in the Gulf as a Category 3 hurricane.

While the precipitation is expected to move out of the area on Saturday night at kickoff, lingering wind gusts and potential tornadoes aren’t out of the question.

The market has been quick to move the total lower, making 51 and 48 become the next key numbers for an under.

Both teams may be limited to a heavy ground attack because of the expected winds and potential slow surface conditions.

Georgia is a heavy inside zone read team with a small mixture of man-blocking concepts between the tackles. Alabama’s defense has a moderate Success Rate of 52% against inside zone this season.

On the other side, the Crimson Tide offense is also heavy with inside zone, with a mix of man and power concepts. The Bulldogs have dominated inside zone and man blocking on defense but have produced a weak 30% Success Rate against 22 opponent attempts with power concepts.

Alabama’s best chance for success will come through linemen blocking downhill with a pulling tight end to create a hole for the ball-carrier.

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings call for Georgia to be favored by 1.5, the opposite of a market that slightly favors Alabama.

There are variables on both sides that make the winner tough to predict. On one hand, Georgia has played one of the softest schedules, but on the other, Russell’s deep shots will have to come in heavy wind gusts.

Look to take the under, but keep an eye on the live number for both teams. Alabama has dominated in the second quarter this season, while Georgia has won the second half in all three meetings between DeBoer and Smart over the past two seasons.

Pick: Under 50.5