Can No. 3 Utah snap losing streak to No. 9 BYU in one of the most high-stakes rivalry games ever?

The lead-up to Saturday’s Utah-BYU game has been pretty uneventful.

There’s been no back-and-forth barbs traded through the media, no inflammatory comments. Heck, there hasn’t even been a hint of vitriol from players on either side.

Utah coach Morgan Scalley and BYU coach Kalani Sitake have both talked about turning the rivalry’s temperature down, and that message has gotten through to both teams’ players.

It’s been a downright lovefest ahead of one of the most important Utah-BYU games of all time.

“Man, I’m very happy the way this environment is about to play out. Just us being able to earn being No. 3, for them to be able to earn being No. 7 in the country,” said Utah quarterback Devon Dampier. “I mean, just as a state of Utah, this is such a significant game. So happy just the way both teams are performing to make the game what it is.”

No love lost

Neither team is going to give the other bulletin board material heading into this one, but make no mistake, when the ball is kicked off Saturday morning in Salt Lake City, there will be no love lost between the two rivals.

Dampier will be playing in his second rivalry game after transferring to Utah in 2025. Utah’s quarterback played in the last rivalry game — a 24-21 BYU win — injured, but heads into Saturday’s game healthy.

All offseason long, he’s heard about the BYU game from fans, and now it’s finally here, giving Dampier a chance to etch his name into Utah lore forever with a win.

“It means a lot to the state, no doubt. I think the whole entire offseason I couldn’t go anywhere without hearing about this game at some point,” Dampier said. “So I understand what this means to the state for sure.”

Big 12 implications

Aside from the usual bragging rights, this year’s rivalry game is a crucial game in the Big 12 championship race.

Last season, the Utes dropped just two games, one to Texas Tech and one to BYU. Those two losses kept Utah on the outside looking in during the Big 12 title game, as the Red Raiders waxed the Cougars to punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff.

Had the Utes beat the Cougars in Provo last year, Utah very likely would have made it to Arlington in December. Instead, the Utes had to sit at home and watch their rival play for a chance to go to the CFP.

This year, the stakes are just as high for both programs.

No. 9 BYU, which lost to UCF, is essentially playing a College Football play-in game Saturday morning at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Not only would a loss to the Utes hand the Cougars their second conference loss, it would give Utah the all-important tiebreaker against BYU and make the road back to the Big 12 title for the Cougars a tough one. BYU would have to rely on losses from Texas Tech and Houston to get back to Arlington for the second straight year.

A win for the No. 3 Utes would put them at 6-0 in league play with three games remaining — at No. 22 Arizona, at TCU and vs. West Virginia. With a victory over BYU, the Utes could even afford to lose one of their final three games and still make the Big 12 championship game.

“This is a big one. It’s not the big one. It’s a big one, just like last week was a big one. There’s only the big one. I keep hearing people say, ‘This is the big one.’ Nope, the big one, only two teams play in (national championship game). So it is a big one and we’re excited for it.”

Utah coach Morgan Scalley

A loss to the Cougars doesn’t end the Utes’ Big 12 title hopes, but Utah would have to win out, including a tough road game against a good Arizona team.

And how’s this for a scenario? If Utah lost to BYU, but won its last three games, and both BYU and Texas Tech won their final three games, it would be a Utah-BYU rematch in the Big 12 championship game.

Utah would win the tiebreaker over Texas Tech, thanks to a 6-0 record against common conference opponents between the two schools. In this scenario, the Utes would have beat Houston, Colorado, Cincinnati, Arizona, West Virginia and TCU, while the Red Raiders would have went 5-1, losing to Cincinnati.

Building CFP résumé

Of course, the Utes would love to beat BYU Saturday and not only inch closer to their first-ever Big 12 title game appearance, but improve their College Football Playoff résumé.

“Scalley has given us the feeling of every week is the championship game, honestly, because as we can see in college football, sometimes you can’t afford to lose games that it hurts the way you end up getting into the playoffs,” Dampier said. “So for us, we’ve been treating every week like this is it.

“... This is the game that alters if we make it in the playoffs or not, that’s kind of how we treat it. So just another game.”

On Tuesday, the committee gave the 8-0 Utes their highest CFP ranking in program history at No. 3. With a win over ninth-ranked BYU, there’s a possibility that a one-loss — or even two-loss, if the second came in a close Big 12 title defeat — Utah team could play in its first-ever College Football Playoff game.

The 2004 and 2008 games, where BYU was the only team left standing in front of an undefeated season and BCS berth, are the only rivalry games that compare to this one for the University of Utah. There’s an argument that this is the most important rivalry game ever for the Utes.

Keeping it real

Though the Utes know the stakes, Scalley and his team are trying not to build the rivalry game up in their heads.

“This is a big one. It’s not the big one. It’s a big one, just like last week was a big one. There’s only the big one. I keep hearing people say, ‘This is the big one.’ Nope, the big one, only two teams play in (national championship game). So it is a big one and we’re excited for it,” Scalley said.

Will the Utes be able to snap their three-game rivalry losing streak?

Utah is favored by 4.5 points and ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Utes a 65.7% chance to win at home.

The Utes are in better form the past two weeks, beating then-No. 14 Houston 23-13 and blowing out Cincinnati 49-25, while the Cougars lost to UCF and held off 4-4 Arizona State and freshman quarterback Jake Fette, who was making his first start.

But even in the years when Utah was in the Pac-12 and had a talent advantage over BYU, the rivalry game was usually a close affair. With the two teams on equal footing and both teams in the top 10, expect nothing but a down-to-the-wire game.

A fast start

For Utah, one of the biggest keys to a win will be getting off to a fast start. Quick starts have been the Utes’ hallmark this season as Utah has outscored opponents 89-6 in the first quarter.

Of course, the turnover battle will be all important, as it always is in the rivalry game. During BYU’s three-game win streak, the Cougars have taken the ball away seven times. Utah has forced zero turnovers.

This season, neither team has a huge advantage in turnover margin; Utah is plus-three (13 turnovers gained, 10 turnovers lost) and BYU is plus-one (nine turnovers gained, eight turnovers lost).

Dampier has been excellent this season, throwing for 1,876 yards and 18 touchdowns on 69.6% accuracy and rushing for 393 yards and five scores.

Dampier has seven interceptions on the year, though, and has thrown at least one interception in each of his last four games. Taking care of the ball will be paramount, especially with how BYU mixes up its coverages.

Per Hudl IQ, the Cougars are playing zone coverage 64.7% of the time and man coverage 35.3% of the time. When the Cougars play zone, they are pretty evenly split between Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4 and Cover 6.

“I think they mix it up really well,” Utah offensive coordinator Kevin McGiven said about BYU’s defense. “They’re extremely well coached. They’re extremely aggressive on defense.

“... So it’s really tough to get a bead on what their looks are, what their tendencies are because they have so much variation to their defense and they play it all really, really well,” he continued. “Usually with teams, when you see that much variation, it’s like, ‘OK, what are they good at? What’s their identity?’ But I think they have an identity. They do it all pretty well with the players they have.”

Best-on-best matchups

Saturday’s game will feature a best-on-best matchup between Utah’s No. 8 rushing offense and BYU’s No. 20 rushing defense. A big key for the Cougars will be improving their tackling after missing 18 tackles in each of their last two games.

The Cougars will be facing someone hard to bring down in standout Ute running back Wayshawn Parker. Per Hudl IQ, nearly 16% of Parker’s runs have gone for at least 15 yards, one of the best rates in all of college football, and an astounding 46.2% of Parker’s runs have featured at least one broken tackle.

“He’s an NFL running back,” Sitake said. “I really like his game. I don’t know if enough people talk about him as a receiver. He has really good ball skills in the pass game. He’s really tough, hard to bring down. We’re going to have to be really good with our technique and our tackling to get him down.”

The Utes will try and get the run game, which includes Dampier, going early against a stingy Cougars run defense and use their versatile cast of characters in the pass game to wear down BYU’s defense.

Utah enters the game scoring 38.9 points per game, but BYU’s defense has been largely good under defensive coordinator Kelly Poppinga, holding opponents to only 18.75 yards per game.

When BYU has the ball, it’s all about stopping Cougar quarterback Bear Bachmeier, which is no small feat.

Bachmeier has thrown for 1,750 yards and 12 touchdowns with four interceptions on 63.1% accuracy and is averaging 261.5 passing yards per game, including a 224-yard performance in a win over then-No. 2 Notre Dame, in the four games running back LJ Martin has been out.

Per ESPN’s Pete Thamel, BYU’s star running back is “on track to dress and attempt to play on Saturday. He’ll likely be limited, but he’s determined to impact the game.”

In Martin’s absence, BYU has struggled to run the ball, gaining just 116 yards in a double-overtime loss at UCF and only 47 yards against Arizona State.

Can a limited Martin reverse BYU’s rushing fortunes against one of the best rushing defenses in the nation? Cincinnati is the only team that has rushed for more than 140 yards against the Utes, hanging 193 rushing yards, but a good chunk of that came in the second half with the game pretty much decided.

Bachmeier himself is a threat on the ground, rushing for 336 yards and seven touchdowns this season. The Utes know all about the quarterback’s rushing ability after last year’s loss.

“He’s difficult to contain. He’s very diverse in what he can do with his feet, with his arm. He plays well with that system. He does a great job,” said Utah defensive coordinator Colton Swan.

“They’ll max (protect) for him and the wide receivers do a great job of getting open for him. Learning what we did versus last year going into this year. There’s a lot of things that we can clean up that I feel will benefit us as far as the game plan goes.”

If Utah can make BYU a one-dimensional offense, it will go a long way to a win, but it’s easier said than done, especially if Martin plays well.

Utah has given up a lot of explosive plays in the passing game. 15% of opposing passing plays have resulted in a gain of 15 or more yards, per Hudl IQ, and the Utes rank No. 96 in passing yards allowed (229 per game).

Utah has gotten away with it, thanks to one of the best red-zone defenses in the country that has allowed a touchdown on just 10% of opponent trips inside the 20-yard line. Against an offense like BYU’s, though, Utah’s defense cannot afford to have the coverage breakdowns and miscommunication that has led to big gains for opposing teams this year.

BYU freshman receiver Legend Glasker, in particular, can beat Utah’s man defense. 43.3% of Glasker’s targets have resulted in a gain of 15-plus yards, and 19.2% of his targets have resulted in a gain of 30-plus yards, per Hudl IQ.

When Bachmeier throws deep, he’s usually looking for Glasker (41 targets) or Kyler Kasper (52 targets).

For Utah’s defense to be successful against BYU’s offense, the Utes will have to prevent the explosive plays, contain Bachmeier when he runs, get pressure against an offensive line that has allowed the fourth-fewest sacks in the nation and force Bachmeier into throwing interceptions, which he has in the past three games.

It’s going to be a tough task, but Utah has slowed down good offenses before this season and has allowed just 15.88 points, No. 15 in the nation. The Utes have also been able to get more pressure as of late to disrupt opposing quarterbacks.

A blowout in either direction is unlikely, and Saturday’s rivalry game should produce its usual tense, close and exciting affair.

“What makes it great is it’s competitive, is the back and forth, is the fact that, look at us, in one state within 30 minutes of each other and you’re sitting here ranked in the top 10,” Scalley said. “That’s awesome. No other state can say that. Much respect for Kalani and that crew and we expect a great matchup.”