The BYU Cougars pulled out an ugly win in Fort Worth, Texas, beating TCU 17-10 on Saturday night.

This game was a battle of differing expectations. BYU is expected to challenge for the Big 12 title while TCU is still trying to return to its 2022 form that saw them in the National Championship game. They even occupy opposite locations in the current Big 12 standings. BYU is No. 2 while TCU is 16th out of 16.

The margin of victory in this game fell far below expectations. However, there are reasons for the close win.

BYU starting quarterback Bear Bachmeier threw for less than 50% on the day and only managed 62 passing yards total. He added another 66 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. In part because of the other big factor, which were key injuries.

Cougars star running back LJ Martin left the game in the first half with a right ankle injury. Linebacker Isaiah Glasker also exited with a hip problem. BYU head Coach Kalani Sitake conveyed optimism in his post-game press conference.

“The good thing is that he was standing and moving, so we’ll have to evaluate that. Same thing with LJ,” Sitake said. “So it wasn’t like those guys were on crutches or anything like that. So I’m encouraged by that, but you never know until you get a look at it and get to evaluate it with MRIs and things like that.”

The Cougars could see history if they continue on this trajectory

In the latest AP Top 25 rankings, BYU has moved into the Top 10 at No. 8. This is not unexpected news, just the result of winning early in the schedule. Something most Cougars fans likely expected. BYU is joined in the top 10 by nine other blue blood programs. Texas, Georgia, Notre Dame, Miami, Ohio State, Alabama, Indiana, BYU, Ole Miss and LSU in that order.

BYU has a very manageable schedule. They are already 2-0 in Big 12 play after wins over Arizona and TCU on Saturday. They almost put 70 on Utah Tech and doubled the scoring output of Colorado State.

The remaining games, except for two, include a rebuilding Iowa State program. UCF is flirting with the bottom-third of the conference. Arizona State, who just lost to Baylor 55-19. The Bears are sitting at 4-1. Kansas with an even record at .500. As well as a Cincinnati team that just earned their first loss. Cincinnati faces a rough October and November facing Texas Tech, Utah, Houston and BYU, all ranked between 8 and 22 nationally.

Each of those games are very winnable for the Cougars. Texas Tech and Houston, who are both currently ranked, are not on the 2026 schedule. The two big games that remain are No. 3 Notre Dame and No. 12 Utah. If BYU can find a way to beat Notre Dame, it should jump them in the rankings. There is a real world possibility that if both BYU and Notre Dame win their next game, then BYU can beat Notre Dame, they could flip their relative ranking locations. BYU would move into the top 3 while Notre Dame would fall to the bottom three of the Top 10.

BYU vs Notre Dame could shape the Playoff

BYU vs Notre Dame will have several aspects ‘on the table’. Obviously, the winner is vying for a solidified top 3 ranking heading into the second half of the season. There could also be a fanbase battle that was not as big of a deal the last time they played. As the NIL dynamic becomes more prevalent, the conversation of the largest or strongest “living alumni” has become a talking point. BYU and Notre Dame represent the largest living alumni groups of faith-based institutions.

Notre Dame will have enough trouble dealing with Miami and SMU later in the season. Notre Dame’s game against North Carolina just breathed some life into the idea of a BYU win and top 10 flip. North Carolina is 2-2 and winless early in the conference schedule. UNC escaped the same TCU team by a smaller margin than BYU. They also did so with their starting running back for the entire game (23 carries, 120 yards). The 37-26 win over North Carolina raised real questions about the Irish in the first half of the season.

If BYU can beat Notre Dame, it will set up the rest of their season’s ‘schedule math’. Leaving BYU with a very simple to-do list. Take care of business against the teams you should beat and win the Holy War. They don’t have to beat Utah by a specific margin. They just need to win.

Utah leads the Big 12 in margin of victory, averaging 47.3 points per game and beating teams by 39.3 points per game. Based on their schedule, it is realistic to believe Utah will still be a top 15 team when the two face off on November 7. Winning the Holy War by any margin after beating Notre Dame and BYU could find themselves in the Top 5 as playoff positioning becomes important.

If BYU can beat Notre Dame in two weeks and potentially move to a Top 5 ranking, it would be the first time that has happened since the 1996 season.

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Source: Yahoo Sports