BON Roundtable: Expect aggressive defenses in low-scoring Red River Rivalry game

Every team says that the bye week came at the right time, but Texas needed to answer some questions in the week off. What is your biggest hope for Texas coming out of the open week?

Daniel Seahorn (@DanielSeahorn)— Getting guys like Hollywood Smothers, Nick Townsend, and Justus Terry healthy and ready to roll for what will be a brutal stretch of play. Aside from nursing bumps and bruises, I want Sark to start emphasizing a quick passing game that will get the ball out of Arch’s hands and stop letting him think so much back there in the pocket. Bad things tend to happen to Arch when has too much time to overthink things.

Jacob Neidg (@jneidig_2) — Re-establishing a consistent run game. Getting the offensive line some extra time to work and giving Hollywood Smothers a week off should give the offense a chance to put a better foot forward when it comes to running the ball. The offense scores points when it is successful on first down, namely avoiding penalties and negative yardage plays. Running the ball is crucial to doing that, so hopefully this bye week can turn things around on the ground.

Wescott Eberts (@SBN_Wescott) – The high-level answer is to stop committing thoughtless, undisciplined penalties, an area that Sarkisian spent a significant amount of time trying to address in his self scout during the bye week. Beyond that, finding more consistency and explosiveness on offense are huge priorities, areas that include getting Cam Coleman more involved on passes with a shorter depth of target, utilizing the quick passing game more to negate blitzes and line games, and deciding where outside zone fits in the running scheme. Is Texas going to major in running duo/inside zone or can the Longhorns be effective in the more lateral scheme that Sarkisian has majored in during previous seasons?

Gerald Goodridge (@ghgoodridge)— I hope Texas did a good job of self scouting to diagnose what ails them on offense. It seems really easy from the couch to say it, but we have enough data points to show that Arch plays better when he plays at a faster pace and a bit more improvisational. You can clearly see Arch’s brain over-rotating on plays, which results in dumb things like passing the ball when you’re already past the line of scrimmage. If he can play with rhythm and pace, this offense can hum.

Texas has owned the series since Brett Venables took over in Norman, with a 3-1 record over four seasons. To what do you owe the success of Steve Sarkisian and Texas in that run?

Daniel — I think the defense being stout and giving Oklahoma a hard time has led to Texas’ success in this matchup. Texas blew out the Sooners a few years ago under Sarkisian, but it’s been more about the defense being able to get pressure on the Oklahoma quarterbacks and minimize their run game. If that continues to happen on Saturday, then I feel like Texas will do enough offensively to get the job done and keep The Hat in Austin.

Jacob — Steve Sarkisian and Texas have dominated because of their defense. In those three games, the Sooners averaged three points offensively and scored zero touchdowns. Completely wrecking the Oklahoma offense is the reason why Texas has had success.

Wescott — A lot of bad injury luck for the Sooners has played a significant role. Beyond that, OU has struggled to field good skill position talent offensively. When was the last time there was a good running back in Norman? Oklahoma hasn’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since Eric Gray four years ago. And that’s in part because of diminishing returns from offensive line coach Bill Bedenbaugh. They’re still sending linemen to the league, they just aren’t getting the same results.

Gerald — It seems like a potent combination of Brent Venables and his staff wildly mismanaging their roster and approach in his first few years, combined with Sark’s ability to get his teams ready for games like this. Sark’s gameplan is usually very aggressive, looking to throw haymakers early and see if the Sooners can respont, which outside of one year they haven’t been able to. You can’t discount the awful injury luck Oklahoma has had in some of these contests, having to field a mash unit in Venables’ first year and John Mateer’s thumb last year, but I don’t know if it would have made a difference either way.

The Sooners’ offense looked downright abysmal against Georgia, especially quarterback John Mateer. Conversely, the Texas defense looked like one of, if not the best units in the country against Tennessee. How do you think Will Muschamp will approach the matchup on Saturday?

Daniel — I think the Texas defense will roll in with a solid game plan and a firm grip on what Mateer and the Sooner offense will want to do offensively. By now it is no secret that the Sooners can’t run the football and their offensive line play has been poor for a while. If Muschamp’s defense squeezes the run game like they have all year and puts all of the pressure on Mateer to win the game, then he will eventually give you a freebie or two at some point in the contest. Anything can happen in this game, and I am sure the Sooners will try to roll out some wrinkles on Saturday, but this should be a matchup Texas dominates.

Jacob — This matchup is tricky for those exact reasons – Oklahoma’s offense has underperformed, and the Texas defense has overachieved, meaning all bets are off on what the Sooners try to do on Saturday. Especially coming off a bye week with two weeks to analyze film and game plan, Oklahoma offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle should have a good bit of trickeration and unique looks up his sleeve. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oklahoma offense moves the ball better than people expect, but I still think it comes down to who wins in the trenches, and the Sooner offensive line is bad, no matter how you dress em up. Put pressure on Mateer and stuff the run game, and the Texas defense will be fine.

Wescott — By taking the week off? Oklahoma doesn’t have much apparent talent at running back and the offensive line is such a mess Venables is throwing Bedenbaugh under the bus publicly. Mateer likes to give the ball away and doesn’t have much explosiveness in his wide receiver corps. Muschamp has a clear answer for third downs with the Colin Simmons spy package. With the exception of a Davis Beville-type situation, it’s hard to imagine an easier game plan to draw up for this rivalry since the Sooners just aren’t threatening at all offensively.

Gerald — I honestly think this type of matchup favors what Will Muschamp likes to do: force quarterbacks to deal with complexity and heat from the front six, and dare them to beat you downfield. Mateer struggles with ball placement and processing, so we may see him bail early and often, leaning on his athleticism and handicapping the offense in the process. I don’t think Texas comes away with 10 sacks again, but facing Josh Heupel’s offense as your last outing before Ben Arbuckle is nice.

While the offense struggles, Brent Venables and the Sooners bring a talented defense to the Cotton Bowl. Arch Manning and the Texas offense have struggled in three of their four games this year. What do you need to see from them on Saturday to come away with a win?

Daniel— It doesn’t have to be flashy, but I want them to be effective and be able to sustain some drives, so that their defense isn’t spending a bunch of time trying to clean up their messes. Can they get the run game going against what will be a tough challenge? If they can that will open up more of the offense, and hopefully with Smothers back this week that will be a shot in the arm this week.

Jacob — Quite frankly, the Oklahoma defense is flying under the radar. The game against Georgia got out of hand, but three of the first five Oklahoma drives resulted in turnovers. The Sooners can get pressure and are salty against the pass, so this is a challenge for the Longhorn offense as a whole, but especially for Arch. I think a healthy run game could do wonders against this defense and really open up the secondary for the wideouts. Avoiding sacks, tackles for loss, and penalties on first down will also go a long way.

Wescott — Take care of the football, be more successful on first down, and stay on schedule in general. At times, Sarkisian’s game plans don’t match what his teams actually do well, so I think that something similar to last year utilizing quick passes to negate the Oklahoma defensive front and get the ball out of Manning’s hand quickly makes a lot of sense.

Gerald — I said it already, but I think if you can get Arch in the flow of the game early and get him actually completing passes, the game opens up quite nicely. There are few teams on the schedule that can probably muck up the run game while keeping things relatively simple at the front due to sheer talent. Get the quick game going with Ryan Wingo, try to free up Cam Coleman in space or one-on-one coverage, which will spread them out, allowing you to take advantage of the numbers in the run game.

Texas is a 7.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel, but none of that matters heading into the Cotton Bowl. Who’s your pick in the Red River Rivalry?

Daniel (4-0/2-2 ATS) — I am expecting this to be a defensive struggle, but at the end of it I think Texas will be able to force Mateer to cough up the ball and win the turnover battle. I think the first one to 20 will be similar to the game in Knoxville. Texas 24, Oklahoma 13

Jacob (4-0/2-2 ATS) — I think this is another mid to ugly game for the offense, but ultimately gets out of hand thanks to the defense. I’ll take the Longhorns in a cruising victory with a cheeky cover from Oklahoma. Texas 27, Oklahoma: 21

Wescott (3-1/2-2 ATS) – Unless Mateer gets some help from his fans to identify a receiver running open deep, I don’t see Oklahoma having the ability to create big plays or finish drives in the red zone, so I see another year without a touchdown for the Sooners. This probably isn’t the week for Texas to find itself offensively, either – this looks like a slugfest that the Horns will need some time to blow open, and I’m not sure it really happens. I’m predicting a lot of field goals. Texas 20, Oklahoma 9

Gerald (4-0/1-3 ATS) — As a certified old-school football lover, there’s a deep irony in me praying for an offensive breakout from the Longhorns, since they’re getting it done on defense and playing physically. It just makes for a bad TV product, which I guess I can deal with. Texas 24, Oklahoma 17