Big Ten Rankings and Projections After Week 9

Lincoln Riley finally got his signature win at USC, taking down #2 Ohio State (with their backup QB). Iowa won big over Wisconsin. UCLA also won big-over Nevada. Most of the rest of the games were very close. Indiana needed overtime to beat Minnesota. Former Husky Ethan Moczuski had a game-winning FG to lift Illinois over Maryland and their interim coach. And, of course, UW came from behind in the final 2 minutes to beat Nebraska.

Polls

North Carolina nearly upset Miami, but the Hurricanes continue atop the polls, including the initial CFP ranking. Six Big Ten teams are included in the CFP rankings:

• Indiana (4)
• UCLA (8)
• Ohio State (12)
• Iowa (19)
• USC (20)
• Oregon (23)

Five of these teams are in the top-25 in the AP poll (Oregon is not, they are #27). Northwestern is #23 in the Coaches poll, but not in the CFP, and #26 in the AP poll.

Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska are other Big Ten teams getting votes in either the AP or Coaches poll (or both).

As it stands now, the Big Ten would likely only have 2 teams in the playoffs since Ohio State is #12 and a G6 team would need to make it in (currently Boise State). But, there is still a lot of football to be played. This is especially true in the SEC which has 10 teams in the CFP, but a lot of those teams will be playing each other in the coming weeks (including 4 ranked-on-ranked matchups this weekend).

Composite Ranking

This week the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 87 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the AP and Coaches polls. The rankings may change slightly after the release of the CFP. The following “Cool Chart” shows the changes since the preseason for the teams in the Big Ten.

With the loss by Ohio State, and Indiana’s OT win over Minnesota, there is a new team atop the Big Ten this week-UCLA. Those three teams, however, remain the top 3 in the Big Ten.

There is a large group of teams in what could be considered the ‘second tier’. Washington leads the ‘third tier’ of teams. The bottom teams are the same as they have been for several weeks.

Other Rankings

Most of the Big Ten teams have played 8 games; a couple have played 9 games. The advanced stats should be a good reflection on how each of the teams is playing this season (and no longer have much of a factor from how the teams played last season). The table below lists the rankings for each of the Big Ten teams in 3 different advanced stats rankings: SP+, FEI, and ESPN’s FPI. Also included in the table are the Massey ratings (from above, for comparison) and some other popular rankings of all FBS teams along with the SRS rankings. (Sagarin includes all D1 teams, so FCS teams are included).

There are three teams in the top-25 in all of these rankings, but they aren’t the same three at the top of the Big Ten in the Massey rankings. USC is in the top-25 in all of these rankings, but UCLA is in all but one (ESPN FPI). Iowa is in the top-25 in all but SRS. Northwestern is in all but Massey. And Oregon is in the top-25 in all but CBS Sports. Nebraska (UW’s last opponent) and Penn State (UW’s next opponent) are in the top-25 in at least one of these rankings.

Most of the teams that vary the most between the rankings are ones in the bottom of the Big Ten (Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, and Rutgers). The exceptions are Minnesota and Penn State. Minnesota varies from #33 to #63 and Penn State varies from #22 to #56.

F+ Rankings

The F+ Ratings (and rankings) are a combination of the FEI Rating and the SP+ Rating. It includes an overall rating along with separate ratings for offense, defense, and special teams. Here’s the rankings for the Big Ten teams.

Indiana and Ohio State are in the top-25 in both offense and defense. Only two other Big Ten teams have top-25 offenses: USC and Northwestern. (Who would have guessed that Northwestern would be there?) Half of the Big Ten teams have top-25 defenses. Maryland, Michigan State, Rutgers, and Washington aren’t in the top-25 in any of the phases.

One bit of good news for Washington is that they have now moved up from #94 for special teams in the preseason to now #57. They are now also close to a top-25 defense at #28.

Week 10 Games

There are 8 Big Ten conference games this week. (Indiana and USC are off.)

There is consistency between the win percentages in most of the games. There are two exceptions. Northwestern is favored at home over Iowa in two of the three projections. Penn State is a slight favorite over Washington in two of the three projections even though they are on the road.

Bowl Games

Six Big Ten teams are already bowl-eligible, and seven teams are just one win away-including UW. Here’s a look at each of the Big Ten teams and their chance to make a bowl game:

• UCLA. Already bowl-eligible, and the Bruins have a good shot to make the CFP and even the Big Ten Championship game.
• Indiana. Already bowl-eligible and will like make the CFP.
• Ohio State. Already bowl-eligible and is on the bubble for the CFP.
• USC. Already bowl-eligible and has a chance to make the CFP.
• Iowa. Already bowl-eligible. At 6-2, would likely need to win out to make the CFP.
• Northwestern. Already bowl-eligible, unlikely to make the CFP.
• Oregon. Not yet bowl-eligible and unlikely to make the CFP.
• Nebraska. Not yet bowl-eligible.
• Michigan. Not yet bowl-eligible.
• Wisconsin. Not yet bowl-eligible.
• Washington. Not yet bowl-eligible, but they have a good chance.
• Illinois. Not yet bowl-eligible.
• Minnesota. Needs one more win to be bowl-eligible. They have home games against Michigan State and Wisconsin where they are currently favored. Winning at least one of those seems likely.
• Penn State. Needs 2 wins in their final 4 games. (Hopefully they don’t win their next game!) They face Rutgers and Maryland in their last two games, so they have a decent shot at a bowl game.
• Purdue. Needs to win 3 of their final 4 games, but it should be considered progress that they still have a chance this late in the season. Unfortunately they still must face Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana, so their chances are slim.
• Rutgers. Needs to win out, which seems unlikely.
• Maryland. Needs to win out, which seems unlikely.
• Michigan State. Needs to win out, which seems unlikely.

Washington is still eligible for bowl games tied to the old Pac-12. That means that they will be competing with the old Pac-12 teams for spots in those bowl games. Those bowl games include the Alamo Bowl, the Holiday Bowl, the Las Vegas Bowl, the Sun Bowl, the Poinsettia Bowl, and the Independence Bowl. (Note that the Rose Bowl is part of the CFP.) There are 4 former Pac-12 schools that are bowl-eligible, and UW is one of 3 that are one win away (the others are Oregon and Oregon State). Here is a look at the projected win totals for the former Pac-12 schools (from ESPN’s FPI):

• Utah: 11.4
• UCLA: 10.4
• USC: 8.7
• Arizona: 8.7
• Oregon State: 7.7
• Oregon: 7.6
• Washington: 6.5
• Arizona State: 5.5
• Stanford: 4.6
• Colorado: 4.3
• California: 4.0
• WSU: 2.1

If Utah and UCLA make the CFP, it looks like there should be spots for the remaining former Pac-12 teams to make the Pac-12 bowl games.

Final Notes

There are a couple of important games this weekend in the Big Ten. None are probably more important than the Oregon-Ohio State game. A loss by Ohio State effectively ends their chances at making the CFP this season-and probably keeps them out of the Big Ten Championship game. Iowa also needs a win to give themselves a chance at both the Big Ten Championship and keep their hopes for making the CFP. UCLA can probably lose and still make the Big Ten Championship, but they probably don’t want to stumble now.

According to ESPN’s FPI, UW’s win percentage improved in all of their remaining games after their win over Nebraska. However, they are still only favored in one of those games-Michigan State. It should be obvious, however, the UW needs to take advantage of playing at home (for the first time in 4 weeks!) and get a win this Saturday. Not only will that secure bowl eligibility, but it should give them momentum in their remaining 3 games.