Big Ten Rankings and Projections After Week 10

There were a couple of upsets in the Big Ten last week, including one which got an offensive coordinator fired (Michigan’s). Nebraska’s losing streak continues; it is now 4 games in a row after winning their first five. And Maryland got their first win with their interim coach-their first since September 12th.

Polls

Another top team lost last weekend (Miami). Six Big Ten teams are in the CFP rankings this week, led by undefeated UCLA.

• UCLA: 4
• Indiana: 9
• Iowa: 15
• Oregon: 16
• USC: 18
• Ohio State: 20

The full list of rankings can be found here: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/2026/8/9/wk-x-wk-rankings

As of now, the Big Ten would only have 2 teams in the playoffs. There are 3 other teams that could each potentially make it in, but it is doubtful that the Big Ten gets more than 3 into the playoffs this season.

Here are the ranks in the other two major polls. (AP/Coaches)

• UCLA (4/4)
• Indiana (6/5)
• USC (15/14)
• Iowa (16/15)
• Oregon (18/19)
• Ohio State (21/20)

No other Big Ten teams are getting votes in the AP poll, but Northwestern (#29), Illinois (#30), Wisconsin (#34), and Minnesota (#35) are getting votes in the Coaches poll.

Composite Ranking

This week the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 89 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the AP and Coaches polls. The following “Cool Chart” shows the changes since the preseason for the teams in the Big Ten.

The top 3 teams in the Big Ten have remained the same for the last 5 weeks, but for the second week in a row it is UCLA at the top. Rutgers and Maryland remain the bottom 2 teams while Purdue and Michigan State switched places.

Rutgers (-46), Michigan (-35), and Washington (-34) are the teams that have dropped the most since the preseason rankings. UCLA (+52), Wisconsin (+23), and Northwestern (+19) are the only teams up by more than 10 places since the preseason.

Other Rankings

The table below lists the rankings for each of the Big Ten teams in the Massey Composite plus 6 other rankings: SP+, FEI, ESPN’s FPI, Sagarin, CBS Sports, and SRS.

Despite being undefeated and ranked in the top-5 in the major polls, UCLA is not in the top-25 in ESPN’s FPI. Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State, Oregon, and USC are in the top-25 in all of these rankings. Nebraska and Wisconsin are in the top-25 in at least one of these rankings.

Besides UCLA, the other Big Ten teams that vary more than 20 places between these rankings are ones that are generally in the bottom half of the FBS (Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, and Rutgers). Minnesota is the exception; they vary 26 places-from #42 to #68.

F+ Rankings

We’re far enough into the season that the advanced stats should give us a good idea about the strengths (and weaknesses) of each Big Ten team.

Nebraska is a top-25 team (overall) on F+, but obviously not in the polls.

It isn’t a good season for offenses in the Big Ten. Only 3 of the top-25 offenses are in the Big Ten: USC, Ohio State, and Northwestern. However, Indiana and Illinois are close. Indiana’s offense was #2 in the FBS at the end of last season, and now they are #27. (I guess losing the Heisman winner has some effect on their offense.)

On the other hand, 9 of the top-25 defenses are in the Big Ten, including 4 of the top 10. UW has already played 3 of those top-25 defenses (Iowa, Nebraska, and Penn State), and will face 2 more this season (Indiana and Oregon).

Four of the top-10 special teams are in the Big Ten, including 3 of the top 10. UW’s special teams has moved up from #94 in the preseason to #34!

Ohio State is in the top-25 in both offense and defense-the only Big Ten team to do that.

Week 11 Games

All of the Big Ten teams are playing conference games this week. Here are some win projections.

There is general agreement on all of the games-including UW being favored over Michigan State.

Final Notes

For the last several weeks none of the win projections have been correct for every game. Last week SP+ was wrong for 6 of the 8 games. ESPN’s FPI was a little better-getting 3 of the 8 correct. And Massey was even better, with 4 of the 8 correct. This season there has been a lot of unexpected outcomes, so I would expect at least one or two upsets in the Big Ten this weekend. (Let’s just hope that one isn’t the UW game!)

With this being the last season where there will be a conference championship game in the Big Ten, who could make it to that game? UCLA and Indiana have the best chances right now since they have 0 and 1 loss respectively. There are 6 Big Ten teams with just 2 conference losses: Oregon, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, USC, and Illinois. Any one of them might make it if things work out in their favor.

Half of the Big Ten teams are now bowl-eligible. Five more teams (including UW) need just one more win. Michigan plays Oregon, UCLA, and Ohio State; getting one more win could be very difficult. Minnesota plays Penn State, Northwestern, and Wisconsin; getting one more win is not guaranteed. Nebraska plays Rutgers, Ohio State, and Iowa; it would seem that this weekend’s game is their best chance to make a bowl game. UW is in a similar position; this weekend’s game would appear to be their best shot at bowl-eligibility. Penn State plays Minnesota, Rutgers, and Maryland; getting one more win for them is likely.

Rutgers has 7 losses, so they can’t get to 6 wins. Purdue, Maryland, and Michigan State all must win all of their remaining games to become bowl-eligible. Purdue still must play Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana, so it is unlikely that they’ll make a bowl. Maryland plays Wisconsin, USC, and Penn State, so it would seem doubtful for them as well. And Michigan State plays Washington, Oregon, and Rutgers-so, again, doubtful.