Big Ten Football: Best bets for UCLA-Minnesota, Oregon-Ohio State, Iowa-Northwestern, more

Week 9 was disappointing on Betting the Big Ten, as Michigan was one of six teams we picked that failed to cover. However, we got the most important game correct as USC easily covered against a lackluster Ohio State team. We went a frustrating 3-6 on the week, dropping our season total to 51-45-1.

It’s time to get back on track.

Week 10 has the best slate of games of the entire 2026 season. Unfortunately, all of the good games aren’t in the Big Ten. What was supposed to be the game of the year turned out to be irrelevant in Oregon vs. Ohio State as the Ducks have already faded to irrelevancy. At least we have an in-state rivalry to preoccupy us as the SEC, Big 12, and ACC have marquee matchups galore this weekend.

As always, all lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.

Nebraska (-4.5) at Illinois, O/U 49.5, 8 p.m. ET Friday

Nebraska has suffered heartbreaking fourth-quarter collapses in each of the past three weeks. Will it be a fourth? The Cornhuskers are 6-2 ATS on the season despite an underwhelming record. They’ve also covered in four of their last five. Illinois, on the other hand, is 3-4-1 ATS. I just don’t trust the Fighting Illini defense as it ranks near the bottom in every statistical category.

The pick: Nebraska -4.5

UCLA (-5.5) at Minnesota, O/U 39.5, Noon ET Saturday

I said it last week, and I’ll say it again this week: I’m not betting against UCLA until they fail to cover the spread. The Bruins are an astounding 8-0 ATS this year. It’s worth noting, however, that they face a stiff test this week as Minnesota is also very good against the spread, sitting at 6-2. For now, it’s UCLA until proven otherwise.

The pick: UCLA -5.5

Maryland at Purdue (-6), O/U 56.5, 12:30 p.m. ET

On the season, these two teams are near mirror images of each other. Both are 6-2 against the total. Maryland is 3-4-1 ATS while Purdue is only ever so slightly better at 3-5. There isn’t a crazy amount to go off of in this pick, but I’m going to go with the over. Maryland’s defense ranks 122nd in the country in scoring while Purdue’s is 124th. There isn’t much defense to go around. On top of that, Purdue has hit the over in three of their last five games, while Maryland has gone over in four of the last five.

The pick: Over 56.5

Oregon at Ohio State (-7.5), O/U 46.5, 3:30 p.m. ET

Prior to Ohio State’s debacle in Los Angeles last weekend, this spread was all the way up at Ohio State -14. The Buckeye loss immediately plunged the line down to 6 before it slowly worked its way back up to 7.5. I may regret this, but I like the under in this matchup. Ohio State’s defense is still elite despite how poorly they played against USC, and for all of Oregon’s problems offensively, the defense has still played very well. In a battle between two backup quarterbacks, I like the under.

The pick: Under 46.5

Penn State at Washington (-2.5), O/U 44.5, 3:30 p.m. ET

On Sunday, Penn State was favored in this game by 1.5. Throughout the week, the spread has slid 4 points in Washington’s favor. Any time a spread crosses the bridge, I’m inclined to follow.

The pick: Washington -2.5

Rutgers at Wisconsin (-17.5), O/U 45.5, 4:15 p.m. ET

This is a major bounce-back opportunity for Wisconsin. After storming the field in an upset win over USC at home two weeks ago, the Badgers laid an egg in a 30-0 whooping at the hands of Iowa. Rutgers is the perfect opportunity to get some mojo back. While both teams are .500 ATS this season, Wisconsin is 3-1 ATS at home and Rutgers is 1-2 ATS on the road. Give me Wisconsin.

The pick: Wisconsin -17.5

Iowa at Northwestern (-3), O/U 45.5, 7:30 p.m. ET

This matchup feels like a feel-good story CFP elimination game. The loser has no chance of making the CFP, as they would have 3 losses and aren’t likely to get the benefit of the doubt as a 3-loss SEC team might. The total is tough to pick against, as Iowa nearly always goes under while Northwestern usually goes over. Instead, I’m looking at Northwestern’s home record. The Wildcats are 4-1 at Ryan Field and are looking to bounce back after a tough loss at Oregon.

The pick: Northwestern -3

Michigan State at Michigan (-13.5), O/U 39.5, 7:30 p.m. ET

In a matchup where both teams care more about not losing than they do actually winning the game, Michigan and Michigan State look to resume their rivalry with two new head coaches…again. The Wolverines have been atrocious against the spread as a favorite this year (1-5), but Michigan State isn’t much better as an underdog. The play here is the under. Michigan’s offense ranks 115th nationally in scoring while MSU’s offense ranks 125th. Michigan’s defense is clearly the best unit on the field Saturday night, but if you’re expecting Michigan’s offense to march up and down the field against MSU’s weak defense…you haven’t been watching the 2026 Michigan Wolverines.

The pick: Under 39.5