Big Ten Football: Best bets for Indiana-Michigan, USC-Wisconsin, more

The noon slate was spectacular to us on Betting the Big Ten last week, as we went perfect on the afternoon. Unfortunately, we missed on Washington vs. Purdue Friday night, as well as both of the late-night games Saturday. We still finished 4-3 on the week thanks to Ohio State and Michigan State covering, as well as Michigan vs. Penn State hitting the predictable under.

On the season, we now sit at 44-37-1. Let’s keep it rolling.

The Week 8 slate leaves a bit to be desired. There’s a reason Big Noon Kickoff will be in Ann Arbor of all places, as Tommy Carr and the Wolverines host Indiana. The only other game that could have even been considered is USC at Wisconsin. However, there are still bets to be won.

As always, all lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.

Indiana (-7) at Michigan, O/U 41.5, Noon ET

Let’s get the “biggest” game of the week out of the way: this game should be ugly. Indiana’s Josh Hoover looked unspectacular against Ohio State last week and was clearly hampered by a nagging injury. On the flip side, Michigan was finally forced to bench Bryce Underwood in favor of Tommy Carr. While Carr delivered and led the Wolverines to 21 second-half points, Indiana’s defense with a week to prepare for him is a whole different beast. Michigan remains a putrid 1-5 against the total and Indiana isn’t that much better at 3-4.

The pick: Under 41.5

Rutgers at Northwestern (-16.5), O/U 58.5, Noon ET

This game is thoroughly uninteresting according to Vegas, as the spread hasn’t moved and 50 percent of all bets are on each team, according to The Action Network. However, there is one very strong trend I’m inclined to follow. Rutgers is 5-1 at hitting the over this season, while Northwestern is 4-1-1 and has never gone under at home. Both teams play very little defense. Give me the over.

The pick: Over 58.5

Oregon (-9.5) at Illinois, O/U 50.5, 3 p.m. ET

Unlike the Rutgers vs. Northwestern matchup, this game is fascinating to Vegas. Oregon opened as a 13.5-point favorite. That spread slid all the way down to 8.5 before settling back at 9.5. For some reason, Vegas likes Illinois’ chances here. Part of that could be that Oregon is 1-4 ATS as a favorite while Illinois is 1-0 as an underdog.

The pick: Illinois +9.5

Michigan State at UCLA (-14), O/U 44.5, 3:30 p.m. ET

UCLA is finally starting to get respect out of the sportsbooks. However, I still don’t think it’s enough. Michigan State has the worst Big Ten record in the last four seasons in conference history and doesn’t appear anywhere near righting the ship as we speak. The Bruins are a whopping 6-0 ATS this season. Who am I to say no to that?

The pick: UCLA -14

Iowa (-6.5) at Minnesota, O/U 40.5, 3:30 p.m. ET

After Minnesota knocked off Michigan in Minneapolis two weeks ago, the future spread on this matchup was set at Iowa -2. However, after the Golden Gopher’s disastrous outing against Purdue last week, this spread balloooned all the way up to 7.5. It has since settled to 6.5. For me, there’s a lot to like about P.J. Fleck and the Gophers in this matchup. Minnesota is 4-2 ATS and has covered in three of its last four games. Additionally, Minnesota’s pass defense is elite while Iowa has struggled to throw the ball consistently.

The pick: Minnesota +6.5

USC (-3) at Wisconsin, O/U 49.5, 7:30 p.m. ET

Both these teams are middling against the spread and against the total. To me, this matchup comes down to the question: how legitimate is Wisconsin? We still don’t know much about the Badgers, as they’ve beaten some terrible teams they were supposed to beat (and yes, that includes you Penn State) and lost to the only good teams on their schedule in Notre Dame and UCLA. Based on my eye test, I don’t believe in Wisconsin yet so this feels like a good opportunity for USC to pull away.

The pick: USC -3