Big 10 Pick 6: Bounce Back Opportunities Abound

Week 4 was a weird one, but I made it out 3-3 ATS. One of those 3 losses was an historic one. I picked Maryland to cover +1.5 against UCLA at home based on the Bruins having to travel cross-country and start at an inconvenient time. Even with those disadvantages, they won by 51 points! Let’s see if I can avoid any 50 point misses this week, and maybe even eke out a winning record

Washington @ USC (-9.5)

There seems to be a belief in Vegas (or the betting public) that Washington has another gear they haven’t hit yet. The Dawgs are 0-4 ATS because they just haven’t scored enough points to beat the spreads, which have favored them in every game so far. This one looks like more of the same- how many points will UW need to score to realistically stay within single digits of one of the better offense’s in the country?

Sure, if you want to pick nits, you can point out that USC’s receiver room is not fully healthy, which contributed to Jayden Maiava’s more pedestrian output against Oregon. You can also note that USC’s defense has been quite poor, allowing 30+ to each of Rutgers, Louisiana, and Oregon (mostly without Dante Moore). On the other hand, I don’t expect the defense to be meaningfully worse than Washington St or Utah St, both of whom gave UW plenty of problems. I could see an offensive breakthrough for UW if Jedd Fisch calls 10 more designed QB runs for Demond Williams, or if Williams does find that higher gear that has been missing this season. Those changes could get UW within 10 points, but I have not seen anything this season to make me think those changes are coming.

USC 33- Washington 17

Penn St @ Northwestern (+2.5)

Northwestern staying within six points of Indiana on the road is one of the better results for a B1G team so far this season. If they played in the SEC, it would probably be enough to jump into the top 20 in the polls. Penn St hit its first speed bump of the Matt Campbell era by losing at home to Wisconsin. This game will be the grand opening of Northwestern’s Ryan Field. The pick here depends on whether you think last week’s results are indicative of a trend or the wider view of both teams still favors the Nittany Lions. I tend to err on the side of more data.

Penn St 27 – Northwestern 23

Michigan @ Minnesota (+5.5)

This is another game with two teams coming off of unexpected results. Michigan lost at home to Iowa and Minnesota… I can’t quite remember what they did last week. Oddly, this line is the second time the Wolverines have been favored by the strange total of 5.5 this year after having the same spread against Oklahoma. Michigan will want to run the ball. Minnesota has defended the run well in 3/4 games and they were destroyed on the ground against Mississippi St. I’m not a huge believer in Michigan, but the main reason to like Minnesota is a win over a Washington team that might not mean much either.

Michigan 23 – Minnesota 16

Ohio St @ Iowa (+14)

The Buckeyes have been lights out other than their tight loss on the road against Texas. However, a road game against an elite defense should be instructive in evaluating this game. The Hawkeyes don’t score a lot of points, but they grind every game to a halt. Jeremiah Smith might be the best player in the country, but Iowa’s secondary tends to be great at limiting big plays. I think Julian Sayin will do enough to give Iowa a small cushion, but Iowa should be able to keep it relatively close with their slow tempo.

Ohio St 30 – Iowa 17

Michigan St @ Wisconsin (-10.5)

For the first time in a long time, Wisconsin fans have something to feel good about. They were hammered by Notre Dame to open the season, but have won three straight, culminating with an upset win over Penn St last week. The Spartans have looked overmatched against P4 competition and they don’t have the kind of offense that allowed Notre Dame to blitz the Badgers. The question is whether Wisconsin has the kind of explosive offense needed to win by more than 10. After such a peak a week ago, I will sell high.

Wisconsin 28 – Michigan St 20

Maryland @ Nebraska (-14.5)

As I said in the intro, last week’s Maryland performance was about as bad as it can get. In fact, it was so terrible that it spared UW some bad press for an upset loss at home. Nebraska, at 4-0, has not been tested yet, with only Michigan St as a P4 opponent. In the same way I’m picking against Wisconsin to cover after their high point last week, I’m going to take the extra points Maryland is getting on this spread after last week’s horrific output, but maybe lightning will strike twice.

Nebraska 31 – Maryland 20