Betting the Big Ten: Week 2 features non-conference challenges

Week 1 was unkind to us here on Betting the Big Ten. Michigan game aside, we ended up on the wrong side of a handful of blowouts. However, we did correctly identify UMass to cover against Rutgers — we should have taken it one step further and projected the outright winner. In total we went 7-11 to start the year. While not great, it’s certainly not a hole we can’t climb out of.

Week 2 features what was supposed to be two heavyweight clashes between Michigan and Oklahoma, as well as Ohio State and Texas. Whether Michigan holds up its end of the bargain is yet to be determined.

All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.

Rutgers at Boston College (-3), O/U 54.5, 7:30 p.m. Friday

Rutgers was the laughingstock of college football last week. Interestingly, the spread for this matchup started at Boston College -7.5 but has since dropped to -3. Vegas seems to think Rutgers will be out for revenge, and I tend to agree.

The pick: Rutgers +3

Oklahoma (-5.5) at Michigan, O/U 43.5, Noon Saturday

Just a few days ago, Michigan was favored by 1.5. Anyone with eyes saw that Michigan should not be favored anymore. I’m surprised the spread has only moved to 5.5 because I’ll be taking Oklahoma while you can still lay less than a touchdown.

The pick: Oklahoma -5.5

Howard at Indiana (-56.5), O/U 64.5, Noon

Projected large blowouts like this are habitually the hardest to predict. While the early trends may show that Howard is a good bet here since it is 2-0 ATS and IU is 0-1, those aren’t large enough sample sizes for me to ignore how unhappy Curt Cignetti was with his team after last week. In a rarity, I’m ignoring data here and picking based off vibes.

The pick: Indiana -56.5

Oregon (-22.5) at Oklahoma State, O/U 57.5, Noon

Before the season, this spread was hovering around 18.5. However, Oklahoma State looked like a shell of what everyone expected in a 24-10 loss to Tulsa in Week 1. In my opinion, 22.5 still isn’t a large enough spread. Give me the Ducks.

The pick: Oregon -22.5

Penn State (-24.5) at Temple, O/U 49.5, Noon

Both these teams covered in Week 1. 24.5 is also an odd number to bet against, so I’ll focus on the total. Penn State scored 45 points against Marshall last week while Temple put up a not too shabby 38 points against Rhode Island. If both offenses can score like that again this week, I like the over.

The pick: Over 49.5

Wake Forest (-3) at Purdue, O/U 49.5, Noon

Both Wake and Purdue failed to cover the spread last week. However, I don’t think Purdue is being given appropriate credit for playing at home. Give me the Boilermakers.

The pick: Purdue +3

Utah State at Washington (-26.5), O/U 55.5, 3:30 p.m.

Washington suffered a rash of injuries in Week 1, including one to a starter who was inexplicably still in during garbage time. How this impacts them is yet to be seen, but 55.5 points seems like a lot for a game that won’t be close but shouldn’t be a laugher.

The pick: Under 55.5

Mississippi State at Minnesota (-1.5), O/U 55.5, 3:30 p.m.

This spread has confused me. It started at Minnesota -2.5, but over the last few days, it crossed the bridge to Mississippi State -1.5. Anyone who’s read Betting the Big Ten before knows I adore taking a favorite if the spread has crossed the bridge. However, it went right back over the bridge late this week, meaning Minnesota is now favored again. Do with that what you will but I’m going to rely on the initial cross.

The pick: Mississippi State +1.5

Duke at Illinois (-6), O/U 51.5, 3:30 p.m.

I feel as though we haven’t used enough data yet in this list, so we’ll do so here. Illinois is 0-1 ATS while Duke is 1-0. The Illini are also 0-1 ATS at home and as a favorite which they will be this week as well. Sample size caveats apply, but let’s go with Duke.

The pick: Duke +6

Eastern Michigan at Michigan State (-17.5), O/U 49.5, 3:30 p.m.

This spread in this matchup has slid Michigan State’s direction throughout the week, going from 16 to 17.5 recently with no sign of stopping. I don’t buy into Eastern Michigan whatsoever, so I’ll ride with the Spartans.

The pick: Michigan State -17.5

Maryland (-12.5) at UConn, O/U 52.5, 3:30 p.m.

In a rare non-conference road game for a Big Ten team against a non-Power 4 school, Maryland travels to UConn. The Huskies don’t have much home field advantage to speak of, and while I don’t fully buy into Maryland this year, 12.5 seems far too small a spread.

The pick: Maryland -12.5

Bowling Green at Nebraska (-29.5), O/U 51.5, 7 p.m.

Nebraska was one of the big surprises in Week 1 in my opinion. I’m not high on the Cornhusker’s offense, but they proved me wrong in a 49-point outburst against Ohio. Bowling Green is not one of the better MAC programs this year, so expect this to be another bloodbath.

The pick: Nebraska -29.5

San Diego State at UCLA (-12.5), O/U 54.5, 7:15 p.m.

UCLA picked up a big win in Week 1 against Cal, 45-24. In the process, the Bruins covered the spread while San Diego State failed to do so against Portland State. With the spread here shifting from UCLA -8.5 to -12.5 I’m inclined to agree with the masses.

The pick: UCLA -12.5

Western Illinois at Wisconsin, No lines available, 7:15 p.m.

Ohio State at Texas (-1.5), O/U 49.5, 7:30 p.m.

The spread has remained shockingly consistent in this matchup at Texas -1.5. Both teams covered the spread in Week 1 against bad opponents so there isn’t much to go off here. I’m going to defer to the home team here but I don’t feel great about the pick.

The pick: Texas -1.5

Iowa State at Iowa (-14), O/U 40.5, 7:30 p.m.

This is one of the tamer rivalries in college football, but it is still a rivalry nonetheless. The spread has shifted towards Iowa throughout the week. If you can get the Hawkeyes at -13.5 I’d certainly pounce on it. If not, I still like Iowa at -14 but just not as confidently.

The pick: Iowa -14

Louisiana at USC (-30.5), O/U 59.5, 11 p.m.

The big question here is how many fans will show up? Will it be too hot? Will fans be at the beach instead? Don’t look now, but Louisiana is 1-0 ATS. I certainly don’t think this will be an upset, but I like the Ragin’ Cajuns to cover.

The pick: Louisiana +30.5