Bad Gambling Advice: Week 1

A new season begins, and so begins Tom’s annual quest to, like, not beat the vig or something.

Always remember, the premise of this post is that I am picking every game involving an SEC team. The goal is not to win, but the goal is also to not be so bad as to be reliably fade-able. Some years, though, this column is so bad at this that you actually can win by fading it! So, on to the picks.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missourah (7:00 PM Thursday, SEC Network): Gotta love a game with a 55.5-point spread. You also have to love a game where Missourah might very likely cover that, because Arkansas-Pine Bluff is bad even by the standards of FCS teams. Bangup job, SEC, in getting rid of SoCon Saturday and just moving that crap to literally the season opener. Picks: Missouri -55.5, Over 62.5

UTEP at Oklahoma (7:00 PM Friday, SEC Network): So, this is probably it for the Thursday and Friday games on the SEC schedule. Obviously, don’t rearrange your schedule to make sure you see them. Picks: Oklahoma -41, Under 51.5

East Carolina at Alabama (11:00 AM, ABC): Somehow, this is on ABC? This is being lodged as a complaint against the Week 1 schedule, though a lot of this is just a result of Week 1 getting more spread out from Thursday to Monday than anything. Somebody will use the crowd size at this game to dunk on USC. Picks: East Carolina +28, Under 52

Kent State at South Carolina (11:45 AM, SEC Network): … actually, no, this will probably be used to dunk on the crowd size at the L.A. Coliseum last week. Picks: South Carolina -36, Over 53.5

Youngstown State at Kentucky (12:00 PM, SEC Network+): You know what? It would be very funny if Youngstown State won this. Picks: Youngstown State +23, Under 62.5

Tennessee State at Georgia (2:00 PM, SEC Network+): Nothing is as reliable as Kirby Smart not covering against an FCS team. Picks: Tennessee State +48.5, Under 53.5

Baylor vs. Auburn (2:30 PM, ABC): Auburn scheduled a home-and-home against Baylor, and they moved their home game to Mercedes-Benz Stadium for absolutely no fucking reason whatsoever. I also have to keep reminding myself that Hugh Freeze no longer coaches Auburn. I also have to keep reminding myself that Dave Aranda still coaches Baylor. Picks: Auburn -7.5, Under 59

Furman at Tennessee (2:30 PM, SEC Network+): Where you can always count on Kirby Smart to not cover against an FCS team, you can always count on Josh Heupel to beat the everloving shit out of one. And then, like, underperform against SEC teams. Picks: Tennessee -46.5, Over 66.5

Texas State at Texas (2:30 PM, ESPN): Texas State’s actually decent. Texas State is also somehow in the Pac-12. No, I don’t understand it, either. Picks: Texas State +29, Over 60

North Alabama at Arkansas (3:15 PM, SEC Network): Yes, this is on an actual TV channel. Picks: North Alabama +40.5, Under 63.5

Austin Peay at Vanderbilt (6:00 PM, SEC Network+): Yeah, you know who I’m picking here. Picks: Vanderbilt -29.5, Over 60.5

Missouri State at Texas A&M (6:00 PM, ESPN): This is on ESPN?!?! Picks: Texas A&M -40, Under 53.5

Clemson at LSU (6:30 PM, ABC): Not nearly as compelling as SEC v. LSU. And by that I don’t mean LSU against the SEC schedule, I mean the lawsuit the SEC literally filed against LSU today. Picks: Clemson +10, Under 50.5

UL Monroe at Mississippi State (6:30 PM, ESPNU): Does anyone actually believe in Mississippi State? I don’t know. But I’m pretty sure UL Monroe sucks. Picks: Mississippi State -28.5, Under 55

Florida Atlantic at Florida (6:45 PM, SEC Network): …you know, I’m actually starting to figure out why everyone is complaining about the Week 1 schedule after typing all these games out. Picks: Florida Atlantic +26.5, Under 59.5

Louisville vs. Ole Miss (6:30 PM, ABC): My overarching thought on Ole Miss this season is that I don’t actually think much of Pete Golding as a head coach and that’s going to become very obvious as the season goes on. Picks: Louisville +6.5, Over 55.5