Are Cougars and Bear Bachmeier catching Baylor — and Mother Nature — at the worst possible time?

Until his nightmarish outing against Utah last week, BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier’s most inconsistent passing performance this season was at TCU.

Struggling to grip the football on a rainy, misty night at soggy Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Bachmeier completed only 11 of 24 passes for 62 yards, with no touchdowns and no interceptions.

With star running back LJ Martin having sustained a high ankle sprain in the first quarter and the passing game going nowhere, Bachmeier took matters into his own hands and rushed 15 times for 73 yards and two touchdowns to carry the Cougars to a 17-10 victory.

Why is that performance worth mentioning now?

Because when No. 10 BYU hosts unranked but surging Baylor on Saturday afternoon (1:30 p.m., Fox) at LaVell Edwards Stadium, wet, rainy and cold conditions are expected to prevail throughout the crucial Big 12 game in Provo. Although forecasts differ, the consensus is that it will be lightly raining at kickoff, pick up in intensity around halftime, and then taper off in the late afternoon/evening.

So that’s not good news for BYU, which has struggled to run the football the past few games, even as Martin returned from a four-game hiatus last Saturday against Utah and had seven carries for 19 yards and a touchdown. The reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year was “not even close” to 100%, offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick said Tuesday, and was listed as probable in Thursday’s availability update, along with star linebacker Isaiah Glasker.

Bachmeier led BYU in rushing against the Utes with eight carries for 59 yards. BYU also played at Rice-Eccles Stadium without two key offensive weapons, running back Preston Rex and tight end Roger Saleapaga. Rex is expected to play against Baylor, while Saleapaga was listed as doubtful on Thursday night.

“We’re going to have some rain and some cold, but all that doesn’t matter. What matters most is our attitude of how we show up, the mindset that we bring, and then our execution and the playmaking that happens after that.”

BYU defensive coordinator Kelly Poppinga

“Those are big losses, by the way,” Roderick said. “We are down some guys. That’s one of the things (limiting the offense). … One of the things we’ve been good at is personnel groupings. We do a lot of different things with personnel, and we’ve been pretty limited the last few games. So yeah, it is a challenge.”

Neither Bachmeier nor Roderick mentioned this week the quarterback’s struggles in wet weather in Texas on Oct. 3, but a few days after that game, Roderick acknowledged the weather was a factor in Bachmeier’s problems connecting with receivers.

“That game got to a point where it was just kind of hunker down and do what you have to do to get out of there with a win,” Roderick said.

Obviously, BYU is well aware of Saturday’s weather forecasts, and Bachmeier and the other quarterbacks have spent considerable time throwing wet footballs in practices this week. Defensive coordinator Kelly Poppinga said Wednesday that the Cougars (7-2, 4-2) are taking a “warrior mindset” into the game but did not detail exactly what that means.

“We are going to keep it at that (regarding) what that means to us as a team and as individuals,” Poppinga said. “Each individual is a little bit different (with) what type of mindset they want to bring, but we have to come with the right mindset. It’s not going to depend on the crowd and how many people are there, or the weather, because it is going to be fun. It is going to be football weather.”

It is also a much bigger game than anyone imagined it would be after Baylor lost back-to-back games to TCU (16-7) and Kansas (25-24) in mid-October and fired coach Dave Aranda. Since then, the Bears have crushed a UCF team 41-9 in Orlando — the same UCF team that beat BYU in double overtime — and followed that with a 42-31 win over Iowa State in Waco under interim coach Joe Klanderman.

“We’re going to have some rain and some cold, but all that doesn’t matter. What matters most is our attitude of how we show up, the mindset that we bring, and then our execution and the playmaking that happens after that,” Poppinga said.

Baylor (6-3, 4-2) has not played in any wet weather games this season, but has the type of dual-threat quarterback that has given BYU’s defense fits in the past — including last week when Utah’s Devon Dampier escaped sacks time and again and picked up 89 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries.

Baylor QB DJ Lagway, a transfer from Florida (where he did play in the rain multiple times), has been sensational since arriving in Waco. The former five-star prospect has thrown for 1,900 yards and 15 touchdowns, with just four interceptions.

Standing at 6-foot-3 and 237 pounds, Lagway is as big as Bachmeier, but doesn’t look to run as much as BYU’s quarterback does. Lagway has rushed for 161 yards and two touchdowns on 50 carries. He’s been sacked 14 times.

“Man, he’s big, he’s strong, he has an arm as good as anybody I’ve seen,” Poppinga said. “He can sit in the pocket and flick his wrist and the ball goes 70 yards, and that’s not an exaggeration. I mean, he can really rip the ball. … And No. 6 (Gavin Freeman) is as good of a slot receiver as we’ve seen all year.”

Defensively, the Bears rank No. 2 in the country in tackles for loss and No. 2 in sacks.

It will be strength on strength in that regard, because BYU’s offense ranks first nationally in fewest tackles for loss allowed and No. 4 nationally in fewest sacks allowed.

“This (Baylor) defense is one of the best defenses in the country in terms of efficiency,” said BYU coach Kalani Sitake. “They tackle well, and their front is really strong. There aren’t many holes in their defense. … As a team, they’ve gone through some adversity, and they’ve found a way to bond together and get victories. They are not just winning games. They are playing at a high level.”

Roderick said Baylor’s defensive success starts with its defensive line.

“I would put them right up there with Notre Dame, as far as their front goes, the D line,” Roderick said. “They’re really disciplined in the secondary. They’ve got length back there. They don’t give up big plays. They are not going to let you throw it over their head. … They’re the No. 2 team in the country right now in red-zone defense. They keep people out of the end zone.”