5 College Football Coaches on the Hot Seat After Mike Norvell Firing, Plus Lincoln Riley

The college football coaching carousel is already moving before November has had much of a chance to get started.

Maryland moved on from Mike Locksley, NC State fired Dave Doeren, Baylor dismissed Dave Aranda, and Florida State followed by ending Mike Norvell’s tenure. Those openings may not be the last ones created in the Power Four.

PFN’s Max Chadwick identified five more head coaches whose seats are getting warmer as the regular season enters its final month. He also added USC’s Lincoln Riley as a bonus name who helped himself considerably with a win over Ohio State but may not be completely safe yet.

Greg Schiano, Rutgers

Greg Schiano is the winningest coach in Rutgers history, but Chadwick believes his second tenure in Piscataway may be approaching its end.

Rutgers fell to 2-6 after a 28-21 loss to Michigan, leaving the Scarlet Knights needing to win all four remaining games simply to reach bowl eligibility. PFN’s projections have Rutgers finishing around 3-9 and gave the Scarlet Knights only a 0.3% chance of making a bowl at the time of the recording.

The larger trend is difficult to ignore. Rutgers is 3-11 in Big Ten play over the past two seasons, and its only Power Four win this year came against a Maryland program that fired Locksley shortly afterward. The Scarlet Knights also opened the season with a loss to UMass.

Chadwick isn’t alone in viewing Schiano’s future as a legitimate discussion. Reporting around the program has indicated that conversations about his status are taking place.

The strongest argument for keeping him may be financial rather than football-related.

Schiano’s contract runs through 2029, and Rutgers would owe him roughly $18.5 million if it fired him after the 2026 season. That figure doesn’t account for assistant-coach contracts or the cost of hiring an entirely new staff, making a change particularly difficult for an athletic department already dealing with financial pressure.

Schiano has rebuilt Rutgers before and remains enormously significant to the program’s history. Chadwick’s concern is whether the current version of the program is showing enough progress to justify staying the course.

Lance Leipold, Kansas

Lance Leipold helped make Kansas football relevant again. That success also raised the standard he is now being judged against.

The Jayhawks won 15 games across the 2022 and 2023 seasons and reached consecutive bowl games. Before that stretch, Kansas hadn’t appeared in a bowl since 2008.

The trajectory has since reversed.

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Kansas went 5-7 in both 2024 and 2025 and enters November at 3-5 this season. The Jayhawks led TCU 13-0 before allowing 22 second-half points in a 22-16 loss, dropping them to 1-4 in Big 12 play.

PFN’s model projected another 5-7 season at the time of the recording and gave Kansas roughly a 40% chance to reach a bowl. A third straight losing season would be particularly disappointing given the money athletic director Travis Goff and the school have invested into the stadium, facilities, and overall football operation.

Moving on would carry a significant price.

Kansas would owe Leipold approximately $17.9 million if it terminated his contract without cause after Dec. 1. His deal runs through 2029, which gives the school a financial incentive to remain patient even if the on-field results continue to frustrate.

Chadwick isn’t convinced Leipold will be fired this winter. The more realistic possibility may be that Kansas retains him but enters 2027 with far less patience than it had entering this season.

Sonny Dykes, TCU

Sonny Dykes’ résumé at TCU contains a national championship appearance and consecutive nine-win seasons. It also contains enough recent inconsistency for Chadwick to believe his situation deserves monitoring.

Dykes took TCU to the national title game in his first season in 2022, producing one of the best seasons in program history. The Horned Frogs crashed to 5-7 the following year before recovering to finish 9-4 in both 2024 and 2025.

They haven’t maintained that momentum in 2026.

TCU is 4-4 after rallying from a 13-point deficit to beat Kansas 22-16. The Horned Frogs are 16-16 in Big 12 play over the past four seasons, and their two Power Four wins this season have come against Baylor and Kansas, two programs dealing with their own coaching instability.

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The defense has given Dykes something to build around. PFN ranked TCU inside the top 15 defensively at the time of the discussion, but the offense sat 85th in Impact grade and 101st nationally in scoring at approximately 23 points per game.

That offensive regression already prompted a staff change. TCU moved on from co-offensive coordinator and offensive line coach A.J. Ricker before the Kansas game.

Chadwick cited an estimated buyout around $13 million, another reason an immediate firing may be difficult to justify after consecutive nine-win seasons. TCU also extended Dykes earlier this year, publicly reaffirming its belief in his leadership.

A 4-4 start doesn’t erase what Dykes has accomplished. Another losing season would, however, create a very different conversation than the one TCU expected to be having when it extended him.

Brent Key, Georgia Tech

Brent Key has generally done good work at his alma mater, which makes Georgia Tech’s 2026 collapse particularly striking.

The Yellow Jackets reached bowl games in each of Key’s first three full seasons and went 9-4 last year. Instead of building on that, Georgia Tech has fallen to 2-6 and lost three consecutive games.

The downturn extends beyond this season. The Yellow Jackets have now lost 10 of their past 13 games dating back to the end of 2025.

PFN gave Georgia Tech essentially no chance of reaching a bowl at the time of the recording. The remaining schedule includes Louisville, Clemson, and Wake Forest, making even a modest late-season recovery difficult.

The offensive regression has been especially dramatic.

Georgia Tech ranked 17th in PFN’s offensive grading last season. The Yellow Jackets were down to 92nd this year while dealing with the departure of offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner to Florida and the absence of quarterback Haynes King.

Key’s contract is another major factor. His deal runs through 2030, and Georgia Tech would owe an estimated $18.45 million if it fired him after this season.

Given Key’s previous success, his ties to the school, and the expense involved, Chadwick doesn’t view him as an obvious firing. The 2026 season has nevertheless been bad enough that a coach who looked secure entering the year now belongs in the conversation.

Deion Sanders, Colorado

Deion Sanders accomplished the first part of his job at Colorado almost immediately: He made people care about the Buffaloes again.

Colorado went 1-11 in the season before Sanders arrived. The Buffaloes improved to 4-8 in his debut season and then went 9-4 in 2024, finishing in the AP Top 25 for the first time in eight years.

That roster produced two of the biggest stars in college football. Two-way standout Travis Hunter won the Heisman Trophy, while quarterback Shedeur Sanders finished his Colorado career as the school’s all-time leader in touchdown passes.

Replacing them has proven far more difficult.

Colorado went 3-9 last season and is 3-5 this year, including a 1-5 mark in Big 12 play. The Buffaloes snapped a losing streak with an overtime win over Kansas State, but the offense still ranked only 95th in PFN’s Impact metric at the time of the discussion.

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Quarterback development has also become a concern. Julian Lewis was supposed to become the next centerpiece of the offense but has already been benched during a difficult season.

PFN projected Colorado to finish around 4-8 and gave the Buffaloes roughly a 9% chance to become bowl eligible.

Moving on from Sanders would be expensive. His buyout is reportedly in the neighborhood of $26 million, while Colorado’s athletic department has faced its own significant financial pressures.

Sanders also provides value beyond wins and losses. Colorado’s national visibility, ticket demand, merchandise interest, and broader attention all increased after his arrival. That gives the administration more reason to tolerate a down season than it might have with another coach.

Chadwick still believes consecutive losing seasons would force Colorado to consider whether that off-field value is enough. He also pointed to New Mexico coach Jason Eck as a fascinating potential option because Colorado athletic director Fernando Lovo previously hired Eck while at New Mexico.

Bonus: Lincoln Riley, USC

Lincoln Riley helped himself more than anyone on this list when USC beat No. 2 Ohio State 30-18.

Chadwick still isn’t ready to remove Riley from the conversation entirely.

USC is 6-2 and now owns the biggest victory of Riley’s tenure, but Indiana and UCLA remain on the schedule. Both are top-10 teams, and another loss would likely end the Trojans’ College Football Playoff hopes.

That matters because Chadwick views 2026 as potentially playoff-or-bust for Riley.

There are important qualifiers. Ohio State was starting true freshman quarterback Luke Fahey rather than Julian Sayin, although beating the Buckeyes remains an important result regardless. Riley’s reported buyout is also around $70 million, a figure that would make moving on one of the most expensive coaching decisions in college football history.

The Ohio State win bought Riley meaningful breathing room. Whether it bought him another season may depend on what USC does against Indiana and UCLA.

This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.