Week 4 is going to be a special one! Alabama and Mississippi State headline the week, while we have only one other ranked matchup, Ohio State and Iowa! While we may not have as many ranked games, we do have some great spots for teams to bounce back or have some hangover.

Game odds are courtesy of DraftKings. Here are my eight best bets for Saturday of the Week 5 slate in College Football. Best of luck!

#7 Alabama (-5.5) at #16 Mississippi State: O/U 60.5

“Alabama has won 16 straight meetings versus Mississippi State and has won by 23, 24, 40, 41, and 31 points in the last five meetings. Alabama has also won by 23-plus in three-consecutive trips to Starkville! But guess what? Mississippi State has never had someone like Kamario Taylor at quarterback! And we’re in Starkville with most of the bets and handle on Alabama ML, -3 and -5.5 over at DraftKings and BetMGM — Oh heck yeah baby, give Mississippi State on the spread.

Down 16 on the road in SEC play after 20 minutes and need a comeback? Too easy. Down 7 at home in the SEC entering the 4th quarter and need a comeback? Too easy. Show me a tough situation, and I’ll point to Kamario Taylor to solve it. The (Bull)dogs are barking this week and the following. Alabama faces Georgia after Mississippi state, whereas Mississppi State is on a bye week. No look-ahead for the Bulldogs. I like Mississippi State +5.5.

Pick: Mississippi State +5.5 (1 unit)

#5 Ohio State (-14.5) at #14 Iowa: O/U 45.4

My question for this game is: can Iowa score more than 14 points? Which is their team total (14.5). Iowa will have to run the ball. Illinois ran for 199 yards, and Texas ran for 141 on Ohio State this season, so it’s possible for Iowa to grind the Buckeyes down late in the game, but early on, I am not sure.

Ohio State 1Q -2.5 is my favorite bet for this game. Iowa didn’t score in the first quarter against Iowa State on three drives. On two first quarter drives against Michigan, Iowa didn’t score but they returned a Kickoff 99 yards, so basically Iowa had five first quarter drives in their two P4 games, and the offense scored 0 points — the special teams scored 7.

The Last 2 meetings in 2024 and 2022: OSU led the 1Q 7-0 and 16-7. Ohio State has led every first quarter this season by at least seven and averages the most 1Q PPG in the country at 14.8. I will take OSU in the first quarter -2.5.

Pick: Ohio State 1Q -2.5 (1 unit)

Navy at Air Force (-3): O/U 45.5

I won't spend much time harping on because it's a well-known trend, but when two services academies play, I am going to bet the Under 90% of the time. This is one of those times. Since 2005, service academy Unders are 47-12-1. Both teams excel at running and stopping the run. As these offense priorities begin a little more modern within the offense, the overall mindset doesn't change. Win the battle up front and eat clock. On defense, win the battle up front and stop the run. That may never change. I am going Under 45.5.

Pick: Under 45.5 (1 unit)

Vanderbilt at #2 Georgia (-25.5): O/U 50.5

Georgia has given up a total of 12 first half points this season coming from one touchdown (WKU) and two field goals (Tennessee St, Arkansas). The Bulldogs have been incredible and absolutely dominated Arkansas and Oklahoma in the last two games. Now enter Vanderbilt, who is completely overmatched. Vandy is coming off a 21-15 loss at Auburn and goes back-to-back on the road at Georgia (yikes).

Auburn led Vandy 7-3 in the first quarter and 14-3 at the half. Vandy trailed NC State 14-0 in the first quarter and 17-7 at the half in the week prior. Georgia should be able to dominate the first 30 minutes of this game before resting in the second half ahead of Alabama next.

Pick: Vanderbilt 1H Team Total Under 6.5 (1 unit)

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Middle Tennessee at Kansas (-20.5): O/U 50.5

Kansas is coming off a bye week following two-straight losses to Missouri (38-21) and Arizona State (24-17). The Jayhawks host Middle Tennessee and it's a great spot for Kansas to not only get a win, but a dominant one at that. Middle Tennesssee is coming off a 23-13 loss to Jacksonville State where they started slow trailing 3-0 in the first quarter. Middle Tennessee will be playing back-to-back road games for the first time this season and this will be the only P4 team the Blue Raiders play. I like Kansas to use the bye week and start fast at home covering the -6.5 in the first quarter.

Pick: Kansas 1Q -6.5 (1 unit)

Arkansas at Texas A&M (-14): O/U 50.5

One of my favorite teams to fade so far has been Arkansas. The Razorbacks have downgraded at a lot of positions and become a bottom-feeder in the SEC almost overnight. On the flip side, Texas A&M is about to join Arkansas if they don't get it together. The Aggies lost two-straight against Kentucky at home and on the road to LSU. Now, back at home versus Arkansas, the Aggies have no option but to win and get out to a quick start to build some confidence. With how slow Arkansas is starting (4.3 1Q PPG), I will take A&M on the first quarter spread at -2.5.

Pick: Texas A&M 1Q -2.5 (1 unit)

Washington at #18 USC: O/U 58.5

When looking at the lines in this game, the market believes the first half will be higher scoring than the second half, specifically the first quarter which is priced between -125 and -140 to the Over. The first half is 30.5 yet the game total is 58.5.

Both USC and Washington did not score a single point in the first quarter of their previous games, but surrendered early scores. In the second quarter, both teams started rolling offensively and each scored 10 points. I think we see better starts and first drive scripts from both teams coming off losses. I'd argue the offenses have the better matchups in this game and both quarterbacks, Jaydan Maiava and Demond Williams Jr. could have a day against these overrated defenses. I will ride the first quarter over 13.5 points. Either side is capable of a scoring or allowing a touchdown drive over 15 minutes.

Pick: 1Q Over 13.5 (1 unit)

Clemson vs #4 Miami (-15.5): O/U 47.5

Plain and simple. Almost anytime I am getting plus-money to fade Clemson at something down the stretch this year — I will probably take it. This is a spot I like. Clemson is coming off a weird win over North Carolina that saw the game delayed multiple times, then went to California for the latest kickoff of Week 4 and ended up winning 24-10. Well, I think the good times are over coming back from the West Coast and playing a top-five ranked Miami team.

Clemson trailed California 7-0 in the first quarter last week, trailed UNC 14-3 the week prior in the first quarter, trailed LSU 17-3 in Week 1, and led Georgia Southern 7-0 in Week 2. Clemson has been a really poor first quarter team against P4 teams and I don't see that changing here. I like Clemson 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 for +114 odds.

Pick: Clemson 1Q Team Total under 2.5 (1 unit)

My Week 5 Picks:

1 unit: Mississippi State +5.5 (-112)
1 unit: Vanderbilt 1H Team Total Under 6.5 (-112)
1 unit: Kansas 1Q -6.5 (-125)
1 unit: Navy vs Air Force Under 45.5 (-112)
1 unit: Texas A&M 1Q -2.5 (-125)
1 unit: Ohio State 1Q -2.5 (-130)
1 unit: Washington vs USC 1Q Over 13.5 (-128)
1 unit: Clemson 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 (+114)

Week 5 Articles

Week 5 Heisman Rankings
Week 5 Top 25 Poll
Notre Dame vs North Carolina Game Preview
Washington vs USC Game Preview
Florida vs Missouri Game Preview
Ohio State vs Iowa Game Preview
Alabama vs Mississippi State Game Preview

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Source: Yahoo Sports