2026 Bowl Projections After Week Three

Hello everyone and welcome back to our latest bowl projections here at Last Word On College Football. This past weekend was certainly an interesting one of course headed by the big one down in Oxford. The Rebels won out over LSU, and that shook up our rankings a little. In addition, another playoff team stumbled as did another who was just outside our top 12. As a result, we have two new teams in our playoffs. Further on down the list, we welcome several new teams to our projections. With the preliminaries out of the way, let’s get to why you’re here: our 2026 bowl projections after week three. As always, if you’d like to see how things changed from last week, you can click here.

2026 Bowl Projections After Week Three

How The Process Works

Once again this year, we have a 12-team playoff with the top four still getting a first-round bye. However, the winners of the Power Four conferences don’t automatically get slots 1-4. In addition, the highest-ranked Group of Five team receives a bid. That leaves seven at-large teams. Once again, seeds 5-8 host first-round games on campus. The New Year’s Six bowls are introduced for the next round and the semifinals. Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas hosts the title game on January 25th. With the formalities out of the way, let’s get to our 2026 bowl projections after week three.

College Football Playoff First Round

Friday, December 18th- Tuscaloosa, Alabama- (9) BYU at (8) Alabama- This week we are only projecting one team from the Big 12. As it stands right now the Cougars are in, and Texas Tech is out. BYU built up an early lead against Colorado State before eventually winning 41-23. After being one of our first teams out last week, the Crimson Tide jump into this week’s rankings after finally putting away Florida State 50-36.

Saturday, December 19th- Columbus, Ohio- (11) Penn State at (6) Ohio State- The Nittany Lions are the second of our new teams into the top 12 this week. They have an outside shot at running the table this year, so they could go much higher. On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes had no trouble with Kent State and open conference play against Illinois. Normally, we don’t like matching up teams from the same conference. However, unless they meet in the Big 10 title game, they don’t play.

Saturday, December 19th- Bloomington, Indiana- (10) LSU at (7) Indiana- We didn’t drop the Tigers out of the playoff following their loss to Ole Miss. Curt Cignetti’s club got their second straight shutout and open conference play against Northwestern.

Saturday, December 19th- Oxford, Mississippi- (12) Boise St at (5) Ole Miss- As we mentioned earlier, the Rebels got the biggest win of the weekend and move up three places. The Broncos had a tougher-than-expected time with South Dakota. However, they remain our Group of Six team.

Playoff Quarterfinals

Wednesday, December 30th- VRBO Fiesta Bowl- (5) Ole Miss vs. (4) Notre Dame- We swapped the Fighting Irish and Georgia this week. Marcus Freeman’s club makes the rather short trip to Purdue on Saturday.

Friday, January 1st- Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl- (8) Alabama vs. (1) Miami– We’re picking the Crimson Tide to get past BYU. Darian Mensah was nearly perfect last week against Wake Forest. He needed it as the Demon Deacons gave the “U” all they could handle.

Friday, January 1st- Rose Bowl Presented By Prudential- (6) Ohio State vs. (3) Georgia- The Bulldogs have scored more than 45 points in their first three games after they had no trouble with Arkansas.. The Buckeyes go to Pasadena as our projected Big Ten champion.

Friday, January 1st- Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic- (7) Indiana vs. (2) Texas–As you might expect, Arch Manning and the Longhorns had a bit of a hangover against Texas San Antonio. These two schools haven’t met since 1966, with Texas leading 3-0 all-time.

That’s a lot to digest, but there’s still plenty more to come as we roll on with our 2026 bowl projections after week three.

College Football Playoff Semi-Finals And Finals

Thursday, January 14th- Capital One Orange Bowl- (4) Notre Dame vs. (1) Miami– We are picking the Irish to get past Ole Miss and face the Hurricanes.

Friday, January 15th- Allstate Sugar Bowl- (3) Georgia vs. (2) Texas– The Bulldogs get past Ohio State to set up a semifinal showdown with the Longhorns.

Monday, January 25th- College Football National Championship- (2) Texas vs. (1) Miami– We remain unchanged from the preseason with our championship game pick.

That takes care of the playoffs, but there’s still tons more to go. Let’s get to the rest of the bowl games with our 2026 bowl projections after week three.

Games Around The New Year

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: January 2nd- Big Ten vs. SEC- Iowa vs. Tennessee- With Alabama and Penn State moving to the playoff, we have a new matchup this week.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl- January 2nd- Big 12 vs. SEC- Auburn vs. West Virginia

ServPro First Responder Bowl- January 2nd- AAC/ACC-Big 12- Virginia vs. Arizona

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl- December 30th- ACC vs. SEC- Virginia Tech vs. Florida

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl: December 30th- Big Ten vs. SEC- Mississippi State vs. Nebraska- Following their big win at South Carolina, the Bulldogs join our projections for the first time.

Reliaquest Bowl: December 31st- SEC vs. Big Ten- Texas A&M vs. Michigan

Old El Paso Sun Bowl: December 31st- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12- California vs. Utah*- In case you missed the big news last week, Tony The Tiger is no longer the sponsor of this game. In its place is Old El Paso, which honestly makes a lot of sense. On the field, the Utes go to El Paso as a legacy Pac-12 member.

Las Vegas Bowl: December 31st- SEC vs. Pac-12- Oklahoma vs. Arizona State– *The Sun Devils go as a legacy Pac-12 team.

Kinder’s Texas Bowl- December 31st- SEC vs. Big 12- Missouri vs. Oklahoma State

That’s our first group of picks. As we move along with our 2026 bowl projections after week two, let’s move to the contests after the big holiday.

Post-Christmas Games

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: December 26th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten- Wake Forest vs. Northwestern

Wasabi Fenway Bowl: December 27th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. American- Pittsburgh vs. Navy

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: December 26th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten- Duke vs. Wisconsin

68 Ventures Bowl: December 26th- Conference USA/Mid-American/Sun Belt- Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana Tech

Cactus Bowl – December 26th: Big Ten vs. Big 12 – Illinois vs. TCU – The former Rate Bowl is renamed the Cactus Bowl for 2026.

Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl: December 28th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. American- Tulane vs. Georgia Tech

Trust & Will Holiday Bowl- ACC vs. Pac-12- USC* vs. Louisville- The Trojans are another team who is just out of the playoff this week. As a result, they go to San Diego as a legacy Pac-12 squad.

JLab Birmingham Bowl: December 29th- American/ACC/SEC- Kentucky vs. Clemson- Following their dominating win over Texas A&M, the Wildcats also join the bowl party for the first time in 2026. Kentucky leads the series 8-6 all-time. However, the Tigers have won three of the last four, all in bowl games.

Pop-Tarts Bowl: December 29th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big 12- SMU vs. Houston- The Mustangs drop out of the playoff after their loss to Louisville last week.

Valero Alamo Bowl: December 29th- Big 12 vs. Pac-12- Texas Tech vs. Oregon*– After dropping out of the playoff this week, the Red Raiders now head to San Antonio. The Ducks go to San Antonio as a legacy Pac-12 member.

We are moving right along with our 2026 bowl projections after week three. Time now for the opening contests of bowl season.

First Week Games

Cricket Celebration Bowl- December 12th- MEAC vs. SWAC- South Carolina State vs. Alabama State

IS4S Salute To Veterans Bowl: December 15th- Conference USA/MAC/Sun Belt- Appalachian State vs. Massachusetts- Another team making their first appearance this week in the Minutemen.

Frisco Football Classic- December 15th- Conference USA vs. Sun Belt- Louisiana vs. Kennesaw State

Boca Raton Bowl: December 18th- American/Conference USA/MAC/Mountain West/Sun Belt- Liberty vs. Marshall

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: December 19th- American/ACC/Notre Dame/SEC- Memphis vs. Vanderbilt

As we wrap up our 2026 bowl projections after week three, let’s move to the games before the big holiday. One thing you’ll notice is that there are a lot more games before Christmas this year.

Bowls Right Before Christmas

Myrtle Beach Bowl: December 21st- Conference USA/MAC/Sun Belt- Arkansas State vs. Central Michigan

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: December 21st- Mountain West vs. MAC- North Dakota State vs. Toledo- Not only are the Bison going to a bowl, but they’ve got a chance at being the Group of Six squad.

Puerto Rico Bowl- December 22nd- MAC vs. American/CUSA/MWC/SBC- Miami (Ohio) vs. East Carolina

StaffDNA Cure Bowl- December 22nd- AAC/CUSA/MAC/SBC- South Florida vs. UConn

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl- December 22nd- Big 12 vs. Conference USA/Pac 12- UCLA+ vs. Cincinnati- The Bruins head to Shreveport as a legacy Pac-12 member.

New Orleans Bowl: December 23rd- Conference USA vs. Sun Belt– Delaware vs. James Madison

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl- December 23rd- Big 12 vs. AAC/MWC/SBC- Baylor vs. Army

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: December 23rd- AAC/CUSA/MAC/MWC/SBC- Air Force vs. Kansas State

SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl- Pac-12 vs. Mountain West- San Diego State vs. Washington +- We have an old Pac-12 school filling the void with no Mountain West team available.

Isleta New Mexico Bowl- December 24th- MWC vs. AAC/CUSA/MAC/SBC- UNLV vs. Florida International

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl: December 24th- American vs. Mountain West- Hawai’i vs. Colorado State

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl: Date TBA- MAC vs. MWC- New Mexico vs. Buffalo

Thanks for checking out our 2026 bowl projections after week three here at Last Word On College Football.