Week 9 overreactions: Ohio State is cooked. Wake Forest is CFP-bound. Right?

The College Football Playoff committee will weigh in this week with its first set of rankings. We here at Overreaction HQ intend to get ahead of the curve and overreact to them even before they’re released.

In truth, that really isn’t difficult. No matter what the committee’s rankings look like, they will bear little resemblance to the only set that counts, that being the last one due out in a little over a month. For that matter, the initial rankings are going to be rendered obsolete almost immediately, as the results of a loaded slate of games in Week 10 are sure to scramble the field. But everyone likes to talk, so talk we shall.

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Here are five arguments that will take center stage this week.

The committee should rank Georgia No. 1

With one notable exception, Georgia has most consistently looked the part of the most complete team in the sport through the first two months. Said exception, of course, is the Bulldogs’ increasingly puzzling home loss to Auburn a couple of weeks ago. But they still sit atop the nation’s deepest conference, and their overall resume is arguably stronger than that of co-leader Kentucky since Georgia’s most notable victory against Alabama came on the road.

Whether the committee goes that route or echoes the US LBM Coaches Poll and puts Miami (Fla.) at No. 1, the top spot in the first rankings is largely meaningless as we said earlier. Both the Hurricanes and Bulldogs face stiff road challenges right away at Notre Dame and Mississippi, respectively. In short, folks are sure to spend some emotional energy complaining about the initial No. 1, but they probably shouldn’t regardless of who it is.

Ohio State's CFP future is cooked

Buckeyes’ coach Ryan Day is correct that his team’s loss at Southern California can’t entirely be laid at the feet of freshman QB Luke Fahey, who was making his first career start in a difficult situation. Unfortunately, the committee’s job going forward is to evaluate the team as currently configured. The Buckeyes have the win at Indiana in the bank, but Ohio State must demonstrate it can still compete with teams on that high level with their new signal caller.

The good news for Ohio State is there aren’t many teams remaining on their Big Ten schedule with productive offenses. Next week’s opponent, Oregon, has shown flashes but not much consistency since the Ducks’ own backup QB Dylan Raiola was pressed into service. If the Buckeyes can get their own defensive issues buttoned up and fix their penalty problems on both sides of the ball, they still have a good chance to get to 10-2, which could them in the Big Ten title game and in theory keep them among the top 12. One more loss, however, and things get incredibly dicey.

UCLA is this year’s Indiana

The comparisons were inevitable. Both are schools better known for basketball achievements, and both plucked a successful coach from James Madison to elevate their football profile. There are even parallels between the current Bruins and the Hoosiers of 2024. The latter group benefited from a, shall we say, favorable Big Ten schedule and found its way into the playoff with an 11-1 record. Yes, we all remember what happened when they got there, but there’s also little dispute that that season laid the groundwork for IU’s championship run a year later.

Can the Bruins pull off a similar feat? Possibly, but it’s important to remember that it took two seasons for Indiana to put it all together. The Bruins still have a couple of long road trips to negotiate in November. Neither Minnesota nor Michigan are lighting up the scoreboard, but both are capable of winning a defensive slog at home. Then the Bruins finish against cross-town rival Southern California, the only Big Ten team capable of mounting an effective passing attack right now. If UCLA can indeed get to 11-1, the Indiana comparisons will grow louder, especially if they bow out of the playoffs immediately. With all that said, of course, we should wait and see how matters play out for the upstart Bruins.

Wake Forest is a College Football Playoff team

After an October that can only be described as dominant, the Demon Deacons can no longer be dismissed. After a three-point road win against a Louisville team that was ranked at the time, Wake Forest outscored its four October opponents by a combined total of 187-31. None of those teams are above .500, and the rest of Wake’s resume is similarly thin after SMU's loss to Syracuse damaged the one big opponent left.

So the question becomes, would the Demon Deacons have to win a rematch with Miami in the ACC championship game to earn an invitation? We suspect the answer is probably so, since the rest of the ACC hasn’t distinguished itself. In this case, the initial rankings from the committee will actually tell us something about how the league is viewed.

Poll voters are forgetting the American

With No. 25 New Mexico joining No. 21 Boise State in the US LBM Coaches Poll, there are now representatives from the Mountain West and Pac-12 with apparent arguments to represent the Group of Six conferences in the playoff field. There’s a one-loss team from the American, however, that might also have a case.

Just outside the Top 25, third among other teams receiving votes, you’ll find Texas-San Antonio. The Roadrunners enter November with a 7-1 record, having lost only to Texas. While UTSA never actually had the Longhorns on the ropes, the Roadrunners do have a couple of other results in their favor, namely a pair of wins against Pac-12 members Texas State and Colorado State. The committee’s treatment of the G6 candidates will be another aspect to monitor as the season’s final month unfolds.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Week 9 overreactions: Ohio State is cooked. Wake Forest is CFP-bound. Right?