Week 8 college football upset watch: Houston, Boston College, Tennessee top threats

No. 11 Tennessee visits South Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog to headline college football’s Week 8 upset watch, one of six games where the underdog carries a credible path to an outright win.

The Volunteers (6-1) beat Alabama 26-10 last week and have lost only to Texas, while South Carolina (3-3) comes off a bye after a 38-19 win at Florida.

Each game in the upset watch gets a grade from 1 to 10, and six more games get shorter grades at the bottom.

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Air Force at Wyoming (+5.5): Upset Watch 5

• Kickoff: Friday, Oct. 23, 9 p.m. ET (The CW)

Air Force (5-1, 3-1 Mountain West) has won four straight since a home loss to North Dakota State, and it has rushed for 869 yards while throwing for 18 over its last two games. A win would make the Falcons bowl-eligible, but they haven’t won in Laramie since 2012.

Wyoming (4-3, 3-1) has won two straight behind quarterback Tyler Hughes, who ran for four touchdowns in a 41-23 win over Northern Illinois. Cowboys coach Jay Sawvel tied this matchup to drive length. “In the last nine times that we’ve played Air Force, if they have four drives of eight or more plays, we’ve only won one game,” Sawvel said.

Sawvel also wants his defense to put the Falcons in third-and-long as often as possible, though Air Force has converted 13 of 15 fourth downs this season. Wyoming ranks 118th nationally in adjusted EPA per play on defense, so the Cowboys need a short game decided on one late possession. Air Force’s option attack controls the clock enough to win, but a five-point margin makes the moneyline a better play than laying 5.5.

Picks: Air Force 24-19, Air Force moneyline, Under 44.5

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West Virginia (+10.5) at TCU: Upset Watch 6

• Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 24, noon ET (ESPN2)

West Virginia (4-3, 1-3 Big 12) beat Cincinnati 45-42 last week as quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. threw for a career-high 464 yards. TCU (3-3, 1-2) beat Baylor 17-6 with four sacks and an interception, and the Horned Frogs allow a Big 12-low 12.2 points per game.

TCU coach Sonny Dykes expects a different test from Rich Rodriguez’s offense. “Number one, they’re the fastest paced offense in the country. They’re going to get the ball snapped faster than anybody,” Dykes said.

Rodriguez sees the danger on the other side of the ball. “They are very athletic and can make you look silly up front,” Rodriguez said. “You’ve got to stay out of third-and-long where they do lots of their different blitzes.”

Running back Cam Cook, the Big 12’s leading rusher, also returns to face the program where his career began. West Virginia’s defense gives up too many big plays to win in Fort Worth, but an offense that snaps the ball this fast creates enough extra possessions to stay within 10.5 points.

Picks: TCU 31-27, West Virginia +10.5, Over 57.5

Tennessee (+2.5) at South Carolina: Upset Watch 8

• Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 24, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

No. 11 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC) beat Alabama 26-10 last week, and its only loss came by three points against Texas. George MacIntyre is expected to make his third straight start at quarterback, while running back DeSean Bishop carried the offense with 32 carries against the Crimson Tide.

South Carolina (3-3, 1-3) had a bye after the win at Florida, where LaNorris Sellers threw four touchdown passes and ran for another. “The way that LaNorris is seeing the field and doing things right now, he’s able to get the ball to whoever’s open,” Gamecocks coach Shane Beamer said.

Vols coach Josh Heupel pointed to the extra rest, saying, “A big part of this test is they’ve got two weeks of preparation.”

Tennessee’s defense ranks 15th nationally in adjusted EPA per play, compared with 72nd for South Carolina. The Gamecocks have already lost home games to Kentucky by one point and Mississippi State by seven. Tennessee wins a low-scoring game with Bishop and its defensive front while MacIntyre avoids mistakes.

Picks: Tennessee 27-21, Tennessee +2.5, Under 50.5

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Boston College (+5.5) at Georgia Tech: Upset Watch 7

• Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 24, 3:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network)

Boston College (3-3, 1-2 ACC) beat Pittsburgh 27-21 for its first conference win, and quarterback Mason McKenzie threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns. Georgia Tech (2-4, 1-2) lost 34-24 at Virginia Tech and has dropped two of its last three games.

Yellow Jackets coach Brent Key built his scouting report around the former Division II quarterback, saying McKenzie “extends plays, scrambles, avoids pressure.” Key also had a blunt message for his own team. “If you want to be consistent, go be consistent. Go do it,” Key said.

Georgia Tech may also be without captain Jordan Walker, who is working back from ankle surgery.

The Eagles allow 169.3 passing yards per game, 18th nationally, and they’ve forced 11 turnovers. Georgia Tech sits at minus-4 in turnover margin. BC has scored on only 60% of its red zone trips, but a defense that takes the ball away gives the Eagles enough short fields to win in Atlanta.

Picks: Boston College 27-24, Boston College +5.5, Over 50.5

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North Dakota State (+4.5) at New Mexico: Upset Watch 5

• Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 24, 10 p.m. ET (The CW)

North Dakota State (6-1) is in its first FBS season, and its only loss came at UNLV. The Bison have won at Air Force and shut out Wyoming 28-0, while New Mexico (5-1, 2-0 Mountain West) beat Hawaii 21-10 to keep the nation’s top scoring defense at 10.3 points per game. NDSU ranks second.

Lobos coach Jason Eck faced the Bison for six seasons as a South Dakota State assistant, and Bison coach Tim Polasek knows it. “Jason Eck is obviously a guy who knows our defensive system very well, he’s faced it multiple times in big moments,” Polasek said.

Eck singled out Bison quarterback Nathan Hayes. “(Hayes) is a big sucker who can throw it well and move,” Eck said.

New Mexico also leads FBS with 13 interceptions, and that secondary makes long Bison drives difficult. NDSU’s defense keeps the score low and the game close, but the Lobos win at home with one more scoring drive.

Picks: New Mexico 20-17, North Dakota State +4.5, Under 40.5

Houston (+6.5) at Utah: Upset Watch 7

• Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 24, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

No. 14 Houston (6-1, 3-1 Big 12) has won four straight, including a 35-32 win over No. 18 Oklahoma State in which Conner Weigman threw for 343 yards and five touchdowns. The Cougars’ only loss was a two-point defeat against Texas Tech, and they’re 5-0 all-time against Utah.

No. 10 Utah (6-0, 3-0) is unbeaten for the first time since 2015 under first-year coach Morgan Scalley, though it edged Colorado 27-24 last week. Scalley called Houston a “Top 25 team that we’re going to be hosting, very good offense and a defense that ranks in the top 10 in the country in rushing defense.”

Cougars coach Willie Fritz is preparing for Utah’s two-quarterback looks, option plays and trick plays. “We’re going to have to be on point during the game,” Fritz said.

Houston’s offense ranks first nationally in adjusted EPA per play, but its pass defense has been vulnerable. Utah has College GameDay in town and enough offense to answer Weigman, while Houston’s passing game keeps it within a score into the fourth quarter.

Picks: Utah 34-30, Houston +6.5, Over 56.5

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More upset watches

• Indiana at Michigan (+7.5): Upset Watch 4. Michigan is expected to start true freshman Tommy Carr after he replaced Bryce Underwood at halftime of a 21-18 win over Penn State. No. 6 Indiana lost 19-15 to Ohio State, ending its 22-game winning streak.
• LSU at Auburn (+7): Upset Watch 5. Auburn upset No. 1 Georgia 27-24 in Athens, and quarterback Byrum Brown has run for 100 yards in back-to-back games. No. 18 LSU shut out Mississippi State 31-0 last week.
• BYU at UCF (+7): Upset Watch 4. No. 2 BYU beat Notre Dame 28-24 behind quarterback Bear Bachmeier. UCF expects Keyone Jenkins to make his fifth straight start with Alonza Barnett III sidelined by a hamstring injury.
• Texas A&M (+13.5) at Alabama: Upset Watch 4. Alabama lost to Georgia and Tennessee in consecutive weeks, its first back-to-back regular-season losses since 2007. Texas A&M averages 16.8 points in SEC games.
• Iowa at Minnesota (+7): Upset Watch 3. No. 15 Iowa is starting Jeremy Hecklinski over a healthy Hank Brown. Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck is 1-8 against Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz.
• San Jose State (+6.5) at Nevada: Upset Watch 5. San Jose State (4-3) visits a Nevada team (2-4) that averages 6.06 yards per carry, while the Spartans allow 5.27. The line has moved a point toward Nevada since opening at 5.5.

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