Week 8 college football odds, storylines: Best bets for Ole Miss-Texas, Saturday's biggest games

There was no world in which Week 7 wasn't going to have more than a few things shaken up, and with almost too many marquee matchups to count, moves were going to be made.

At the end of a week that saw the not-so-soft launch of a 24-team College Football Playoff to come in 2027, marginalizing the regular season that once meant everything to the sport, we were reminded why the stakes are so high with 12 playoff spots on the line (and what will will be lost with 24).

It's supposed to be hard to make the playoffs, and with how things shook out in Week 7, it will be. Just try to be your own CFP committee and seed the top-12 teams right now. If you find you're leaving some teams out that are worthy of making it, well, some might say that's the whole point of the 12 games played beforehand.

Like most things in life, the move to 24 teams is about money, and so is our betting outlook of college football.

Movers

The game that was going to move perception on a macro level didn't disappoint.

BYU planted the flag for the Big 12 in a way that Texas Tech wasn't even able to do last season. Now, with Houston's win over Oklahoma State, the conference has four legitimate playoff contenders (with Utah) and a fair case to get two of the 12 playoff spots this year.

That matters in the betting market, because if there are two spots to be had, then BYU (-145), Texas Tech (-130), Utah (+110) and Houston (+375) might no longer have to rely on winning the conference to get included — and their odds reflect that.

On the losing end, in the immediate aftermath, Notre Dame isn't being penalized in the AP Poll (dropped only to No. 4) or in the betting market, as the Irish are still the favorite for the national title. But will a controversial finish be remembered if they happen to lose to Miami, and the same arguments against their candidacy from last year start back up again?

Interestingly, there was a big move hinging on that final play in Provo. In FanDuel's live odds for the Heisman Trophy, CJ Carr was sitting at +600 (14.3% implied probability) during Notre Dame's final drive. When the ball fell incomplete, they lengthened to 12-1, and currently sit 18-1 (5.3%). That's a 9% shift before even guessing where those odds would have gone with a game-winning touchdown pass.

Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith still sits as the odds-on favorite (-110), catching a fourth-down touchdown bomb, which held up when Indiana QB Josh Hoover didn't give Nick Marsh enough room to run under, inbounds, Indiana's own would-be game-winning touchdown that would have turned our 3-3 Saturday record against the spread into 4-2.

Ohio State scored a win on a day when its high-profile loss to Texas gets a little worse, but the cost was an injury to QB Julian Sayin right in the heart of conference play. Only time will tell whether that will open the door for a second tier that's starting to take shape in the Big Ten with UCLA, Northwestern, Iowa and the Buckeyes' Week 9 opponent — USC — all making moves.

Shakers

What do we even make of the SEC at this point?

To wit, Tennessee beat Alabama, who beat Kentucky, who beat Oklahoma, who beat Texas, who beat Tennessee. Of course, Tennessee beat Auburn, who beat Georgia, who beat Alabama, who beat Mississippi State, who beat South Carolina, who beat Florida, who beat Texas, who was the No. 1 team in the AP Poll two weeks ago, and is now clinging to the rankings (somehow still one spot ahead of the Gators).

Are these moves? Shake-ups? Or are we looking at a preview of our primal fear about a 24-team playoff — that this group of 10 will all be waved right on into the CFP next year?

Two 20-point underdogs won outright. One you're aware of — Auburn over Georgia, and one you're not — Charlotte over Temple.

Another such upset was this close to shaking things up, as Florida State almost clipped eventual new No. 1 Miami, but a dubious holding call shut that possibility down in double-overtime.

In the Group-of-Six, James Madison planted its flag as the cream of the Sun Belt, Oregon State blew out another opponent and Memphis blew their chances (as the primary candidate out of the American) for CFP contention with a Friday night loss at Tulane. That likely leaves the G6 playoff spot to be an argument between the Pac-12 and the Sun Belt.

Betting the big games for Week 8

This is the space for the big games of the week. Until teams take a loss or two, you never know what early-season game is going to end up mattering more than we initially thought. We still have very few in-season data points to go off, but there's enough market reaction (or lack thereof) to lead us to one side or another for the best games of Week 8.

No. 19 LSU (-7.5, 51.5) at Auburn

You know what would look good next to a win at Georgia?

Hanging a third loss on Lane Kiffin and LSU.

Possibly because of an estimated post-game win expectancy of 3.3%, winning between the hedges didn't get Auburn ranked, which shouldn't go unnoticed around Jordan-Hare.

There are a few ranked teams who are in dicey spots this coming week, but Indiana, Iowa, Texas Tech, Tennessee, BYU, and USC aren't playing teams that could go on a run into the CFP.

Auburn came into the season with a win total of 6.5, but at 4-2 (with Arkansas and Samford left) the Tigers are at least worthy of that rating in the betting market. Yet, the win over Georgia hasn't given them a boost.

LSU's win over Mississippi State will look better than it is at the end of the season, because the Bulldogs were without Kamario Taylor (and Fluff Bothwell), so there was no chance that LSU would be downgraded in the betting market. For a team that started the season rated high but has lost both of its road games, it's curious they're still being given the benefit of the doubt.

Before the season, at THE WINDOW, we had this projected at LSU -5 (-4.9), but we're getting more than the touchdown with the home underdog and another program feeling like they're on the come-up, just like Ole Miss and Kentucky — the two teams to top the Tigers.

Bet: Auburn +7.5

No. 7 Ole Miss at No. 19 Texas (-3.5, 54.5)

It's a let-down week for the big games (how could it not be?), but there's more than enough intrigue left in the Longhorns' season. Even if there ends up being just one more week left in it, in terms of Texas' CFP hopes.

Money came in on Texas ahead of the Florida game, presumably because the Gators were going to be without starting QB Aaron Philo, but at this point, what quarterback would the Longhorns need to be playing for you to trust them as a favorite?

Not Trinidad Chambliss, that's for sure.

Bet Ole Miss Rebels to cover the spread at sportsbooks right now

Ole Miss has regrouped in a big way after getting blown out by Florida, coming out of its bye with a re-commitment to defense, while also having arguably the best quarterback in the country.

If it were so simple to get your act together after a loss, Texas would have done it against the short-handed Gators. Plus, the terrorizing pass-rush of Colin Simmons will likely be absent, as his high-ankle sprain should keep him out this week. Let's get the hook before that's confirmed.

Bet: Ole Miss +3.5

North Dakota State at New Mexico (-4.5, 41.5)

The highest-leverage Group-of-Six game is in the Mountain West. With North Dakota State carrying a loss to UNLV, but a win over Air Force (who beat the Rebels, who beat … uh-oh, don't get me going on that round-about dance again!), whichever team wins this game can at least pencil itself into the conference title game.

The Bison got the short end of the scheduling stick with all these road games, and now they're taking on the best team in the conference, as the Lobos have the best EPA/Play allowed on standard downs, and the third-best offense.

NDSU's Nathan Hayes' production has been stifled by lesser defenses, and the running game has been high on volume, and low on explosiveness.

Since losing starting QB Jack Layne before the season, New Mexico has settled in on Toa Fa'avae, but he's more of a running threat, with no more than 19 pass attempts in any game.

Two good defenses should clash on a chilly evening, and points will be at a premium, taking us off the home favorite and onto the under.

Bet: Under 41.5 total points

No. 14 Houston at No. 10 Utah (-6.5, 57.5)

Houston got into an old-fashioned, "last team with the ball," Big 12 shootout with Oklahoma State, and walked out of the corral keeping the number next to its name, but now the Cougars go to one of the toughest places in the country to play.

With a total of 57.5, the expectation is that we're in for another high-scoring conference tilt in Salt Lake City.

Given what we saw across college football this past week, Utah should get credit for just surviving a scare at Colorado. The Big 12 is divided by who can (Success Rate Allowed of 42% or lower, negative EPA/Play allowed), and cannot play defense. The Buffaloes' metrics put them on the good half and the Utes still exceeded 400 yards of offense, but Devon Dampier threw two uncharacteristic interceptions (just seven INTs in 465 pass attempts as a Ute).

The Cougars are on the bad side of the conference defensively, and in Utah's previous two conference games, against bad defenses (Kansas, Iowa State), they largely avoided turnovers, turning their 400-plus yards into 30-plus points. So, we'll back the home side to have at least one more touchdown than Houston.

Bet: Utah -6.5

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.