Week 6 college football odds, storylines: Best bets for Georgia, Alabama and the weekend's other big games

We pride ourselves in being supportive of the Group-of-Six conferences, making sure to include the biggest games of the week even at that level, but …

A Friday night headliner-matchup on paper in Conference USA kept us from a clean sweep of the big games last week, as we settled for a Saturday 3-for-3. The concept was on point, buying at the top of the market with Delaware, only we didn’t get starting quarterback Nick Minicucci, and the Blue Hens’ surprise starter couldn’t crack Liberty. The Flames move to +125 to win CUSA ahead of that league’s plethora of weeknight spotlights in October, just one of many shifts in betting markets after Week 5.

Here is my initial take on the five biggest games of the week, along with the usual stock up or down for a few teams.

Movers

As for Saturday’s winners — moving us to 14-9-1 this season — Ohio State and Alabama covering didn’t change the way we see those two programs. However, the Crimson Tide’s national title odds were cut in half from 22-1 to 11-1, and the Buckeyes are now edging Georgia and Notre Dame as the championship favorite.

Speaking of the G6, the word appears to be out on Oregon State, one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, as the Beavers are now the second choice (+500) in the Pac-12, with four more conference games before an all-time measuring stick — a trip to Boise State.

Meanwhile, let’s call this the first of two warnings that it’s last call on buying Georgia State (20-1 at DraftKings) in the Sun Belt. The Panthers’ blowout of Old Dominion could be construed as an official swapping of places with the Monarchs, who were supposed to challenge James Madison in the East Division.

Shakers

Ideally, you’d like to be the shaker, not the “shakee” in this space.

For the second straight week, Minnesota shook up a Big Ten opponent as an underdog, topping Michigan for the “Little Brown Jug,” and making the Wolverines a shakee in back-to-back weeks.

The churn in the middle of the conference is real, as Northwestern handed Penn State its second straight loss, and this one wasn’t close.

Finally, our ‘dog of the day was Missouri, and they reminded college football bettors that the “spot” is the thing:

LSU was a top-five team and lost at Ole Miss, who lost at Florida, who lost to Missouri, who have Texas A&M next week — an Aggies team that was beaten by LSU,. That sets up a possible scenario where we could come full circle in the SEC, if Mizzou isn’t ready to get back up for big-time opponent again.

Betting the big games for Week 6

This is the space for the big games of the week. Until teams take a loss or two, you never know what early-season game is going to end up mattering more than we initially thought. We still have very few in-season data points to go off, but there’s enough market reaction (or lack thereof) to lead us to one side or another for the best games of Week 6.

No. 6 Indiana (-7.5, 51.5) at Nebraska

If you think Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi wasn’t pleased with being unranked at 4-0, you can imagine Matt Rhule might be telling his team that it’s being disrespected, being ranked outside the top 25, at 5-0.

Here’s the thing: The Cornhuskers, despite winning by no fewer than 18 points in any of those games, don’t deserve it. At least, not yet.

Nor has Nebraska earned the boost in its market rating that’s shifted a line that would otherwise have been closer to two touchdowns, just because the Cornhuskers have beaten non-conference patsies, and Big Ten stragglers.

It’s possible a discount is available on Indiana because the Hoosiers aren’t considered to be on the level of last year’s championship squad, but no one asked them to be. Indiana came into the season rated, not ahead of, but alongside other national title contenders. Last week was its first point spread cover of the season, so you could argue that rating was — and is — too high. However, losing ATS tickets might be more about the opponents.

Bet the Indiana Hoosiers to cover the spread at sportsbooks right now

Indiana’s faced North Texas (wildly underrated coming into the season after being purged by Oklahoma State), Howard (55-0 win, as 56.5-point favorites), Western Kentucky (38-0 win as 44.5-point favorites) and Northwestern (just pounded Penn State), before covering -24.5 on the road at Rutgers (who gave USC all they could handle a week earlier).

If you look at the standard down-by-down numbers, Indiana continues to be right there with Ohio State atop the Big Ten in offensive EPA/Play (first), offensive Success Rate (second), defensive EPA/Play (first), and defensive Success Rate (first).

If you think Ohio State would be just -7.5 at Nebraska (right in the middle in the metrics referenced above), you’ve got another thing coming.

Bet: Indiana -7 (-115)

Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Texas (-8.5, 39.5)

The Red River Rivalry gets a place in our list of big games as long as one of the combatants is the No. 1-ranked team in the country, and the other side is at least capable of pulling an upset.

Whether Oklahoma can actually pull that off or not, an opening line of Texas -9.5 is already trending down. However, we won’t likely see it get under a touchdown — where it was in the “Game of the Year” market this summer. That’s the crucial line of demarcation here.

Let’s start with the good. Oklahoma’s defense has faced a big brand in Michigan, a top G6 squad in New Mexico and one the best teams in the country in Georgia. Allowing -0.24 EPA/Play and 33.6% Success Rate on standard downs, the Sooners are right there with Georgia and LSU atop the SEC on that side of the ball.

Then there’s the offense, which has rightfully taken considerable criticism, and helped Georgia’s metrics along the way. The Sooners’ -0.16 EPA/Play and 40.3% Success Rate is not good, but Texas has been only moderately better (0.04 EPA/Play, 49.2% Success Rate).

In a defensive battle with a sub-40 total, if the Sooners stumble into a couple of big plays, and 14-17 points, we should have a one-score game. If this was Texas -6, as it was in August, we’d have no interest, but over a touchdown we’ll bite the bullet with an uncomfortable side.

Bet: Oklahoma +8.5

North Dakota State (-3, 48.5) at UNLV

We can’t pump our own tires about respecting the G6 and not include the second of three theoretically tricky road conference games for North Dakota State.

After taking their transition to FBS by storm so far, drilling four of their five opponents, and winning on the road at Air Force — still one of the contenders in the Mountain West — the Bison might have been closer to -6. However, UNLV got a win over a Power-4 program last week, beating California 39-31.

That’s a face-save after UNLV, which had lost to Memphis and got smoked at North Texas, but Cal’s been a disappointment this season, and the Golden Bears defense came into last week with a 0.07 EPA/Play allowed on Standard Downs.

North Dakota State’s defense allows -0.11 EPA/Play, and while Air Force put 32 points on the board, seven came on a pick-six, and seven in the final minute of game that was all-but decided.

The Bison should come into Vegas and leave with a crucial win toward their hopes for a Mountain West title.

Bet: North Dakota State -3 (-118)

No. 21 UCLA at No. 13 Oregon (-11.5, 59.5)

A ranked-on-ranked matchup in the Big Ten pits the up-and-coming Bruins with the omnipresent Ducks.

Oregon got caught by Oklahoma State, knocking it down the polls. They won’t be the last team to be burnt by the Cowboys’ offense this season, but the apparent tipping of plays on offense allowed the Oklahoma State defense to frequently know what was coming.

There’s enough talent on both sides of the ball to fulfill the Ducks’ promise as a national title contender, and, more immediately, play at the level they were power-rated in the market before the season.

Bet on the Oregon Ducks to cover the spread at sportsbooks right now

UCLA’s already been upgraded — both in the polls and the betting market ratings — and has been ticking things off the checklist in Bob Chesney’s first season. The Bruins won an in-state rivalry game (though Cal could easily be winless in FBS play), defended the Rose Bowl (against San Diego State and Purdue) and travelled back East for a win (though Maryland is a mess).

Competing with a national title contender at their house is on the list, but it might be skipping a few steps in a game that would have been lined at three touchdowns before the season. The refocused Ducks beat Chesney by two scores, as they did in last season’s CFP.

Bet: Oregon -11.5

No. 10 LSU (-9.5, 54.5) at Kentucky

If there was one college football team that might suit the betting advice of “back at home, fade on the road,” it might be LSU.

Kentucky’s no slouch, as Will Stein’s group spotted South Carolina 17 points before coming back to beat the Gamecocks last week, and as every week passes, losing to Alabama in Lexington is not only more forgivable, but having a 17-13 halftime lead is more impressive.

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Since the Wildcats let that shot at an upset slip, they went into College Station and beat Texas A&M soundly, and didn’t blink in Columbia. Now they get a second chance for a big-time upset at home, with an offense that’s right there with Lane Kiffin’s; actually converting each play at a better Standard Down Success Rate.

Whether Kenny Minchey can take advantage of a banged-up LSU defense that had a virtual week off last week, time will tell, but with Kentucky out-pacing their modest market rating and LSU still trying to live up their high one, grabbing the home ‘dog Cats is the play here.

Bet: Kentucky +9.5

No. 2 Georgia at No. 6 Alabama (-1.5, 55.5)

Our preseason lookaheads dropped to 2-2 last week when Clemson couldn’t stay with Miami, despite a 300-yard passing performance from Tait Reynolds (and not helped by an dubious defensive touchdown overturn), but the betting market thinks we’ll be back to 60% after this Saturday.

We nabbed Alabama +3 this summer, and Georgia actually opened 2.5-point favorites on Sunday, but since then, the favorite has flipped to the Crimson Tide.

Alabama sent a message nationally by dismantling Mississippi State amidst the din of cowbells in Starkville, and the Tide — somewhat under the radar coming into the season — have passed every test in a way that suggests we haven’t found their rating just yet.

Georgia is awesome, but we knew that would be the case coming into the season, and our bet was always based on the premise that Alabama was better than 50-50 to hand the Bulldogs one of their few losses this season.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.