Week 11 college football prediction market picks: Wake Forest, Utah lead Kalshi, Polymarket

College football’s prediction market in this Week 11 slate takes undefeated Utah to Tucson to face Noah Fifita and Arizona, puts Tennessee in front of a blackout crowd at Kyle Field and sends Wake Forest to SMU with ACC title stakes.

Five of the six picks side with the market favorite, though Wake Forest at 51% is close to a coin flip. The exception is Cincinnati, which travels to Ames as an outright upset pick against Iowa State.

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Wake Forest over SMU

• Saturday, November 14 at noon ET
• Kalshi: 51% WAKE, Polymarket: 51% WAKE

Wake Forest has won six straight since its only loss to Miami, and quarterback Gio Lopez should return after sitting out Saturday’s 77-0 win over Merrimack with a leg injury. Coach Jake Dickert said Monday, “He’ll be ready to go Saturday.” Lopez has thrown 18 touchdowns against one interception this season.

SMU scored on its first eight drives in a 51-28 win over Virginia Tech, and Kevin Jennings threw for 350 yards and four touchdowns. Still, the Mustangs allow 5.25 yards per carry, so Wake Forest can lean on its running game and keep Jennings on the sideline. The Demon Deacons also won last year’s meeting 13-12.

Pick: 34-27, Wake Forest (Wake Forest -1.5, Under 61.5)

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Cincinnati over Iowa State

• Saturday, November 14 at noon ET
• Kalshi: 43% CIN, Polymarket: 43% CIN

Cincinnati rallied from 14 points down at Houston before a 51-yard touchdown run with 5:10 left and a backward-pass ruling on its final drive sealed a 31-24 loss. Running back Cole Tabb, who has 752 rushing yards, left after a hard hit, but the Enquirer reported he appeared fine afterward.

Iowa State has allowed at least 42 points in back-to-back games, and coach Jimmy Rogers said the Baylor loss “really comes down to poor execution in so many ways.” The Cyclones give up 5.73 yards per carry. Aiden Flora’s 1,119 rushing yards keep Iowa State dangerous, but Cincinnati’s ground game should win a shootout in Ames.

Pick: 34-31, Cincinnati (Cincinnati +3, Over 60.5)

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Tennessee over Texas A&M

• Saturday, November 14 at 3 p.m. ET
• Kalshi: 58% TENN, Polymarket: 58% TENN

Tennessee’s defense carried a 34-6 win over Kentucky, as linebacker Arion Carter posted two sacks and four tackles for loss. The offense was quieter. Quarterback George MacIntyre threw for 125 yards, and the Vols had 13 points through three quarters. Running back DeSean Bishop and his 1,075 rushing yards give them a dependable fallback.

Texas A&M has scored 20 points or fewer in three of its last four games, including a 17-9 loss at South Carolina, and Marcel Reed has seven touchdown passes all season. The Aggies will have an Operation Blackout crowd behind them, but Tennessee’s defense, which creates havoc on 21.3% of plays, decides a low-scoring game.

Pick: 24-17, Tennessee (Tennessee -2.5, Under 43.5)

Louisville over North Carolina

• Saturday, November 14 at 7 p.m. ET
• Kalshi: 60% LOU, Polymarket: 62% LOU

Louisville ran for 251 yards in a 44-17 win at Georgia Tech, its fourth straight victory. Coach Jeff Brohm, who earned his 100th career win, said winning four in a row “after starting 2-3 is a testament to our guys and coaches.” The Cardinals have scored at least 27 points in all nine games.

North Carolina is one win from bowl eligibility after a 38-21 win at UConn, where quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. threw three touchdowns. But the Tar Heels needed three takeaways to pull away from a .500 team. Lincoln Kienholz, who led Louisville with 81 rushing yards last week, and running back Isaac Brown give the Cardinals the stronger ground game in Chapel Hill.

Pick: 34-27, Louisville (Louisville -3.5, Over 59.5)

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Utah over Arizona

• Saturday, November 14 at 7:30 p.m. ET
• Kalshi: 57% UTAH, Polymarket: 58% UTAH

Utah is 9-0 and No. 2 in the AP poll after intercepting BYU’s Bear Bachmeier four times in a 28-20 win. Quarterback Devon Dampier accounted for four touchdowns, and coach Morgan Scalley said running back Wayshawn Parker’s heel injury shouldn’t be an issue in Tucson.

Arizona hasn’t lost at home and has won the last two meetings. Scalley admitted “Noah Fifita’s had our number for the last two times that we’ve played him.” Fifita threw for 313 yards to rally the Wildcats past TCU 29-28. Utah’s secondary just picked off four passes against a top-10 opponent, and that defense keeps the Utes unbeaten.

Pick: 31-24, Utah (Utah -2.5, Over 54.5)

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North Texas over UTSA

• Saturday, November 14 at 9 p.m. ET
• Kalshi: 55% UNT, Polymarket: 55% UNT

North Texas is the only team still unbeaten in American Conference play after a 52-23 win over Rice, its sixth straight victory. Running back Jahiem White ran for 139 yards and three touchdowns and has 1,186 rushing yards this season. The Mean Green rank fifth nationally in adjusted expected points added per play on offense.

UTSA lost 60-29 at Florida Atlantic and allowed 563 yards, and coach Jeff Traylor said his staff was “totally outcoached.” North Texas allows 7.61 yards per dropback, so Owen McCown can keep this close on homecoming night at the Alamodome. Still, the Mean Green won last year’s meeting 55-17 and have the offense to win a shootout.

Pick: 41-34, North Texas (North Texas -2.5, Under 77.5)

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