Week 11 Big Ten Preview

We’ve officially reached the “Is it over yet?” portion of the Purdue football season. Each year begins with promise, even this one. After Purdue took Wake Forest to double overtime in week 2 and it hung with UCLA in Pasadena it looked like this might be different. I wasn’t thinking playoff, but I was hoping for a bowl game.

Now, to get to a bowl game, all Purdue has to do is upset a ranked team on the road, break the longest losing streak it has ever had against a single opponent, and upset the defending national champions on their home field.

No big deal, right?

I suppose the luxury of Purdue being so bad since Jeff Brohm left is that there is absolutely no pressure in worrying about the playoff. Even the expanded 24 team affair feels like an extreme reach at the moment. With three games left it would be nice to just get one of them, especially after our own mistakes carry a lot of the weight for our last three losses. Does it come this week? Unlikely, but we persist regardless.

Friday

Illinois (6-3, 4-2) at #4 UCLA (9-0, 6-0) 9pm, FOX

Will UCLA play in the Rose Bowl as part of a playoff game? They have been the most consistent team in the conference all season even against a somewhat weaker schedule. Now they get to face an Illinois team that is all over the map. The Bruins have gotten it done mostly by grinding teams into a fine powder on the ground at a clip of over 200 yards per game. They also have a really good defense (and Purdue is the team that scored the most on them by a wide margin). UCLA 27, Illinois 14

Saturday

Northwestern (6-3, 3-3) at #20 Ohio State (6-3, 4-2) B1G NUDE SATURDAY, FOX

Quiz time: when was the last time Ohio State lost three games in a row? You have to go back to 2011, when Purdue beat them 26-23 in overtime and kicked off a FOUR game losing streak. Seeing as how that involves Purdue and it was the game that started The Traveling THE I am making a decree: If the Buckeyes lose this game at home for their third consecutive loss they will be stripped of the THE under the “equally calamitous opponent” clause. Northwestern 24, Ohio State 20

Wisconsin (6-3, 4-2) at Maryland (3-6, 1-5) Noon, Fox Sports 1

Did Maryland turn a corner last week or is Purdue’s defense just that bad? I think it is the later. This has been a punchless team for much of the year, but they capitalized on two huge plays set up by the largesse of the Purdue defense to grab a Big Ten win last week. Given the remaining slate it looks like Luke Fickell is going to save his job with an eight win season. Wisconsin 38, Maryland 17

Nebraska (5-4, 2-4) at Rutgers (2-7, 1-5) 12:30pm, BTN

The Huskers have now lost four in a row, each in hilarious fashion. This is a program that is clearly cursed, but is it cursed enough to lose to Rutgers? It had better hope not. A loss in Piscataway would but Nebraska in danger of missing a bowl game after a 5-0 start. They should get it done. Nebraska 28, Rutgers 14

#18 USC (7-2, 4-2) at #9 Indiana (8-1, 5-1) 3:30pm, CBS

Indiana is having a “How do they keep getting away with this? season. They easily could be 9-0 right now, or 4-5. The last four games have all come down to the very end, including overtime in each of the last two. That said, a win here probably send them back to the playoff because they would gain some clear separation in the race for second place behind UCLA. A loss, however, opens the door for pure chaos with two weeks to go, as it could lead to a seven way tie for second place between Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, USC, and Illinois if all results go right. Let’s cheer for chaos. USC 21, Indiana 17

Washington (5-4, 2-4) at Michigan State (3-6, 1-5) 4:15pm, BTN

Both of Washington’s conference wins have come on the road at Purdue and Nebraska, so maybe they need a long plane flight before they can win a game. They should make it three in a row thanks to a Michigan State offense that is bad, yet still won last week on five field goals. Washington 30, Michigan State 20

Minnesota (5-4, 3-3) at Penn State (5-4, 2-4) 7pm, Fox Sports 1

It was so nice of Purdue to fix Penn State’s offense, but can they do it now against a Minnesota team that thrives on defensive stops and grinding games out? These two teams are very evenly matched and if the Gophers win they will possess all of their rivalry trophies at the same time because yes, they have the Governor’s Victory Bell with Penn State. That is their fourth “official” rivalry trophy, but they also possess the unofficial $5 Bits of Broken Chair trophy thanks to a six game win streak over Nebraska. Minnesota 17, Penn State 14

Purdue (3-6, 2-4) at #15 Iowa (7-2, 4-2) 7:30pm, NBC

It wasn’t that long ago that Purdue was 3-3, on a two-game winning streak, and it was looking at three straight very winnable games. Well, the defense has utterly collapsed in that time, especially the run defense. The offense has not helped matters, and now it has to score on an Iowa defense that has given up just 23 points in the last three games. Unless Purdue gets an early lead and can establish the pace like it did against Illinois and Minnesota this will be a tough one. Iowa 24, Purdue 14