November has arrived, and apparently I'm celebrating by betting a team on its third-string QB to cover as a favorite. There are certainly more relaxing ways to start the month, but this is the life we've chosen.

Texas is a road favorite at Missouri, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are laying a field goal against Vanderbilt and Houston gets Cincinnati at home after a week off.

Here are my three early Week 10 bets.

No. 10 Texas Longhorns (-3, 44.5) at No. 19 Missouri Tigers

Arch Manning threw three touchdowns in Texas' comfortable 31-3 win over Mississippi State last week, and Missouri put up 34 against Arkansas in a rivalry win. I understand looking at those results and wondering why I'd want to go under a total already in the mid-40s.

Manning can turn a decent defensive possession into a very annoying highlight in one throw, and neither offense needs to be consistently great to ruin this ticket. Texas' 31-3 win over Mississippi State included Maraad Watson taking a fumble 61 yards for a touchdown, and the Longhorns finished with only 280 yards of offense. Missouri's 34-10 win at Arkansas came with even more assistance: four takeaways turned into 24 points. Both defenses created those chances. I just wouldn't count on the same number of easy points when they play each other.

I trust the defenses more than the offenses here. Bill Connelly's SP+ also puts both defenses near the top, with Texas No. 7 and Missouri No. 11. The offenses haven't been operating at that level. Against FBS opponents, Texas is producing 2.36 points per drive and Missouri 2.15 in our tracking. I expect both to have trouble sustaining drives against these defenses.

If the offenses have to go the length of the field, I like the chances of stalled possessions and field goals. The obvious problem is that a defense good enough to force punts is also good enough to put an under in trouble with a takeaway.

We project Texas 23-19, a total of 42. I like under 44.5, available Monday morning at -108 at bet365. The gap is only 2.5 points, and Manning's ability to hit a big play is a good reason to want the extra half-point rather than casually treating 44 and 44.5 as the same bet.

Bet: Texas-Missouri under 44.5 (-108)

Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-3, 48.5)

Kamario Taylor is out for the season, AJ Swann left the Texas game injured and Mississippi State has lost four straight after starting the season 4-0. If that sounds like an odd time to lay points with the Bulldogs, I understand. I like Mississippi State -3 regardless of who starts, but the quarterback situation is a real problem, not something I'm assuming gets fixed by Saturday.

Our current ratings have the Commodores No. 76 on offense and No. 71 on defense, so Mississippi State gets an opponent with its own scoring problems and a much less imposing defense than the one it just faced. I don't need the Bulldogs to suddenly look like their September offense to like them to win by more than a field goal here. The injuries go beyond quarterback. Fluff Bothwell and left tackle Miles McVay also left the Texas game, and Jeff Lebby didn't have a definitive update on Bothwell afterward. "Haven't lived anything like it," he said of the injury situation. That is the case against this bet, and it's a better one than simply pointing at the losing streak.

I'm still willing to lay -3. Mississippi State's defense gave it a chance to stay in the Texas game, and against a Vanderbilt offense that has struggled to turn drives into points, I think that can be enough at home if the Bulldogs stop giving possessions away through penalties and mistakes. Mississippi State doesn't have to solve every offensive problem to beat the Commodores by more than a field goal.

Bet: Mississippi State -3 (-105)

Cincinnati Bearcats at No. 17 Houston Cougars (-10.5, 62.5)

Houston gets to come out of its bye against a Cincinnati team that just lost 49-25 to Utah. That sounds like a convenient setup for laying points, but the Bearcats weren't quite as helpless as that score makes them look.

There is enough offense here to make a double-digit favorite sweat, and Houston's last outing was its own 21-13 loss to Utah. So I'm not laying double digits because Cincinnati lost to a team that Houston couldn't beat, either. I prefer what Houston does with its possessions. The Cougars have averaged 3.11 points per drive against FBS opponents, compared with Cincinnati's 2.15, and Houston's offense sits No. 15 in our ratings against a Cincinnati defense ranked No. 87. Conner Weigman threw for 343 yards and five touchdowns against Oklahoma State before the Utah loss. Houston won that one 35-32; it needed him to keep producing.

Cincinnati can cover this if RB Cole Tabb keeps finding room and the offense finishes the drives it wasted against Utah. That's a real concern laying this many points. I still prefer Weigman against the Bearcats' defense, especially with Houston getting the extra preparation time while Cincinnati was dealing with Utah.

We project this game Houston 37-23, with an exact margin of 14.3. The -10.5 was available Monday morning at -110 at BetMGM. I want Houston to make Cincinnati keep answering, because that's where the difference between moving the ball and actually scoring should show up. The Bearcats had plenty of practice with the first part on Saturday.

Bet: Houston -10.5 (-110)

Source: Yahoo Sports