USC Can Fire Lincoln Riley & Escape $70M Buyout After New HC Role Opening, Flags CBS Reporter

No one really knew a coach once heralded as ‘the’ QB whisperer would even contemplate being in a place he is now. USC has fallen 6-2, and the playoff hopes have faded into oblivion. For a coach who already had 5 seasons to rebuild his program and failed, firing him seems the most obvious course. However, USC has a $70 million buyout hanging over its head, and without some help, they won’t be able to avoid it.

Baylor fired Dave Aranda on October 25 after a dismal record, and CBS Sports’ John Talty now presents that vacancy as an exit parachute for both Riley and USC.

“It would help USC get out from what is believed to be an onerous $70 million buyout if it were to fire Riley outright,” Talty wrote in his October 28 report. “Either way, industry sources believe it’s increasingly likely the Trojans will have a different head coach in 2027.”

Almost all coaching contracts have a “duty to mitigate” clause that requires Riley to actively seek jobs. If Riley accepts the Baylor job and gets around $5 million per year (almost what Aranda earned), the money will be subtracted from his buyout every year, which will almost certainly be paid in installments.

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Riley has a unique connection to Texas, and that makes the Baylor opportunity intriguing. For starters, he is a Texas native, and his recent success also came at Oklahoma—a program with a massive Texas recruiting footprint and cultural ties.

Dave Aranda finished his tenure 40-40, although the program reached the 2021 Big 12 championship game. What Baylor needs right now is someone willing to rejuvenate its recruiting and use the portal efficiently.

Despite the on-field struggles at USC, Lincoln Riley still managed to pull off an impressive No.1 recruiting class in the country this cycle. Not just that, he recruited 57 percent of those players from in-state.

Considering the talent-rich reputation of Texas high school football, it won’t take time for Riley to pull off top-20 recruiting classes consistently. For that to happen, though, Riley would want to forego his reported $70 million buyout.

“I love it here,” Riley said on Tuesday. “I’ve told you guys many times. There aren’t many people in college football history who gave up what I gave up to come here.”

Because of Riley’s reluctance to leave USC, many speculate that USC will ultimately have to pay his $70 million buyout. That buyout is the reason Riley is still at USC, despite a disappointing 7-24 loss against Wisconsin last week.

So, USC gets little time to recover before its next test. No. 2 Ohio State visits Los Angeles next week, thoughuncertainty at quarterback could leave the Buckeyes without their usual options on offense.

For Lincoln Riley, the matchup carries weight beyond the result itself. His time at USC has brought growing scrutiny, and another loss to Ohio State would make it harder to argue that the program is moving in the right direction.

If the Buckeyes arrive without a settled quarterback and still leave with a win, questions about Riley’s future could quickly turn into a debate over how long USC can afford to keep him.

“USC’s opening has the potential to create a significant domino effect throughout the college football ecosystem,” Talty said.

USC has more than 20 billionaire alums, including George Lucas and Mark Stevens. Texas A&M had a way to cover Jimbo Fisher’s enormous buyout: a small group of wealthy oil magnates helped shoulder the cost.

USC could turn to its own deep-pocketed supporters if it decides to move on from Riley. A few major pledges, potentially worth tens of millions of dollars, could go a long way toward making that decision possible.

All of it now begs the question: How come a QB whisperer touted for Heisman winners QBs like Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Caleb Williams reached here with a 41-20 USC record?

Lincoln Riley’s Oklahoma offenses had more going for them than clever passing schemes. They had an offensive line that could move defenders off the ball and give the run game real bite. That mattered.

When defenses had to account for a strong ground attack, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray found more room to hurt them through the air, particularly on play-action. Over time, though, the balance began to slip.

Lincoln Riley kept bringing in talented quarterbacks and skill players, but his teams increasingly struggled to match that talent with the size and strength needed up front.

The problem was not always obvious while the offense kept putting up points, but it became harder to ignore as his tenure at Oklahoma wound down. Lincoln Riley left for USC before the 2022 season, taking his offense to Los Angeles.

There, Caleb Williams gave him a way to work around some of the same problems. Williams could escape pressure, extend plays, and find receivers after the original design had broken down. His improvisation covered up plenty of trouble in protection.

Williams left for the NFL, and USC lost that safety net. Without a quarterback who could so often turn a broken play into a big gain, the weaknesses up front became much harder to hide.

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