The AP and CFP Top 25 – What Does It All Mean?

The first CFP ranking for this season is out, and there are both some expected and some puzzling rankings that we are seeing. There are some differences with the AP Top 25 that are also worth taking at look at.

The AP Top 25

Here is this week’s AP Top 25:

Before I say anything further, it’s important to know that I have always harbored a negative bias where the AP poll is concerned. That bias has me constantly at odds with some teams that are always overrated, and at odds with the tiresome coddling of the SEC. That said, it’s a fair starting point in putting the CFP picture into some sort of perspective, so here we go.

First, let’s look at the top 12 in the AP poll. Miami is #1, and that cannot be disputed. It’s been a hot minute since we’ve had so few undefeated teams halfway into the football season, and yet here we are. Miami has looked the part, too. It may just be Mario’s time, but we shall see.

The other undefeateds are #3 Utah and #5 UCLA. Why the pollsters would not have P4 undefeated teams in the top slots has always been a point of contention for me. Strength of schedule, beating only lesser teams, blah blah blah – it’s all blather to me. I can understand hesitating to put G6 undefeateds at the top of the polls, but not P4 teams. If the undefeated teams don’t deserve to be at the top of the polls, then I guess they’ll lose a game, right?

#3 Georgia is at the top of the one-loss teams, as they should be. The other one-loss teams in the top 12 are #4 Notre Dame, #6 Indiana, #7 BYU, and #8 Kentucky. All of the other one-loss teams are further down the list: Texas Tech, Wake Forest, Boise State, and New Mexico.

#9, #10, and #12 are all two-loss SEC teams, along with a two-loss Ohio State team. Alabama’s two losses are against Georgia and Tennessee. Texas has two losses against unranked Oklahoma and unranked #25 Florida. Ole Miss has losses against Florida and Texas. And here we have my SEC bias problem – when you have so many teams that are arbitrarily ranked at the preseason, then you have losses in conference play with a bunch of ranked teams and it keeps the teams’ ranking artificially inflated.

Alabama at #9 I’m kind of okay with. As far as the others are concerned (including Ohio State); well, I personally don’t think they have any business being ranked ahead of the one-loss team that include Texas Tech, Wake Forest, and Boise State. But that’s just my opinion.

It comes as no surprise that the SEC has a couple of three-loss teams in #23 South Carolina and #25 Florida. Bias perpetuates artificially higher rankings, after all.

The College Football Playoff Rankings

There are some notable differences between the AP and CFP pecking order:

• Notre Dame AP #4 vs. #11
• Alabama AP #9 vs. #5
• Texas AP #10 vs. #7
• Ole Miss AP #12 vs. #10
• Oregon ??

Notre Dame’s drop is astonishing. I mean, I almost hate ND as much as washinton and USC, and – I’ll just leave that there. No need to get into a rant about the overrated teams that I hate. The point is, I don’t like the Irish and even I am taken aback somewhat about ND’s drop. Perhaps the committee thinks they have something to prove?

The creeping upwards of all SEC teams, at the surface, seems like more SEC bias. B1G teams Ohio State, UCLA, and USC were pushed down the polls.

The most curious ranking in the top 25, however, is Oregon. The Ducks. Oregon is getting the 3-loss SEC treatment? Really?? It took some time to wrap my head around why an Oregon team that (in my mind anyway) clearly sucks is even ranked here.

Glad you asked, Kurt. The CFP playoff committee has been very consistent in how they go through the weekly ranking process over the past two seasons. Yes, some first-week ranking bias probably exists. There is always puzzling placement in the first rankings. But what the committee does with this first ranking of the season is point out potential possibilities. Regardless of whether you’re undefeated or have some losses, this first week looks at what is possible more than anything.

Yes, even though it doesn’t feel like it (and it certainly doesn’t feel like it to me), Oregon has a chance to get into the playoff, even as it’s a slim chance. That’s what the committee is saying by putting Oregon on the poll. The Ducks just have to win out, that’s all. Yeah, that’s it. Piece of cake.

In any case, I’m not reading too much into this first week, at least where the Ducks are concerned. Beat Ohio State on Saturday, though, and you might have my attention.

We shall see.