Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State prediction, odds, pick for Big 12 clash in Week 11

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The Oklahoma State Cowboys have an opportunity to continue their fairytale run when they host the No. 10 Texas Tech Red Raiders in their Big 12 matchup at Boone Pickens Stadium on Saturday. The Cowboys are 6-3 overall and 4-2 in conference play under first-year head coach Eric Morris, having already improved by five wins from last season. They enter the contest after a dominant 66-28 victory over Kansas State, and will once again look to make the most of the home advantage.

Texas Tech, meanwhile are 8-1 overall and 5-1 in the Big 12. The Red Raiders are firmly in the conference championship race and come into this game after a 53-48 win over West Virginia last weekend. The Cowboys have won their last three games against AP top-10 opponents on home turf, with their offense currently ranking second nationally in total yardage, and third when it comes to scoring.

Oklahoma State is a 3.5-point favorite, via DraftKings Sportsbook, and undoubtedly have the offensive firepower to justify those odds.

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Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Odds

Oklahoma State: -3.5 (-105), Moneyline -170

Texas Tech: +3.5 (-115), Moneyline +142

Over: 72.5 (-112)

Under: 72.5 (-108)

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Key Injuries

Texas Tech enters Saturday’s matchup with several injury concerns, particularly at wide receiver. Coy Eakin is out after breaking his hand against West Virginia while Jalen Jones will miss multiple weeks with a hip injury.

Donte Lee Jr. is out for the season, while Malcolm Simmons, an Auburn transfer, has missed recent games but is expected to be available against Oklahoma State. Chase Campbell is expected to take on a larger role with Eakin sidelined.

Further, Cameron Dickey aggravated an ankle injury against West Virginia but is likely to be available after taking on light training on Sunday. Quinten Joyner, meanwhile, is likely to be a game-time decision.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State will be without offensive guard Jacob Sexton (leg), defensive lineman Landon Dean and safety Mose Phillips III (shoulder). Linebacker Tate Romney and defensive end Jaleel Johnson remain questionable, while safety Quinton Hammonds has been cleared to play.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Betting Trends

Oklahoma State enters the game with a 7-2 record against the spread, compared with Texas Tech’s 4-5 mark. The Cowboys have therefore been the more reliable team for bettors this season, although they are likely to be tested against one of the country’s top teams.

The Cowboys come into this one with a 16-13 advantage over Texas Tech during the Big 12 era and have won 12 of the last 16 meetings between the programs. Their home record against the Red Raiders is particularly strong as they lead 14-9 in Stillwater and have won nine of the last 11 meetings played at Boone Pickens Stadium.

Keys to Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Matchup

Oklahoma State’s passing attack could dictate the game. The biggest challenge for Texas Tech will be containing Drew Mestemaker, who has emerged as one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country. He has thrown for 2,962 yards and 29 touchdowns against eight interceptions, completing 66.7% of his passes.

The quarterback has considerable support from Caleb Hawkins and Justin Bowick. Hawkins has rushed for 1,081 yards and seven touchdowns on 187 carries, while Bowick leads the receiving group with 790 yards and 10 touchdowns on 44 receptions.

The Cowboys average 339.1 passing yards per game, ranking third nationally, while their rushing attack contributes another 194.4 yards per contest. Texas Tech’s defense will need to find a way to disrupt Mestemaker without allowing Hawkins to take control of the game on the ground.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Prediction and Pick

Oklahoma State has the more productive offense, the better ATS record and a strong recent history at Boone Pickens Stadium. Mestemaker’s passing production gives the Cowboys a significant advantage against a Texas Tech defense that ranks near the bottom of the FBS in passing yards allowed.

The Red Raiders have enough offensive talent to make this competitive. Williams’ rushing production and Castellanos’ dual-threat ability could create problems for an Oklahoma State defense that allows 384 yards per game.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 41, Texas Tech 35

Pick against the spread: Oklahoma State -3.5 (-105)

Over/Under Pick: Over 72.5 (-112)

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