Texas Is Getting Too Much Respect: Why Ole Miss Should Be the Favorite in SEC Showdown

As we get later into the college football season, the stakes in each game get bigger. That could not be more true as the Ole Miss Rebels take on the Texas Longhorns this weekend in Austin. Texas enters the game as a 3.5 favorite even after their defeat to Florida at home last weekend. The loss to the Gators was also Texas’ second straight loss as they were defeated by Oklahoma one week prior in the Red River Rivalry. The Longhorns are slipping, Arch is struggling, Steve Sarkisian’s job is possibly on the line, yet Texas is still the favorite. Because of this, Ole Miss should be the favorite versus Texas this weekend.

There are two possible reasons for this. Texas is still one of the most talented teams in the country, and Vegas usually gives an edge to the home team when different sports books open their lines for each game. However, with the trajectory of each team at the moment, Ole Miss should be the favorite, and here’s why.

Ole Miss‘ advantage at quarterback is why they should be the favorite

There is one word why Ole Miss should be the favorite versus Texas this weekend, Trinidad. The word as been synonymous in Oxford, Mississippi over the past year since Trinidad Chambliss burst on the scene when he took over for an injured Austin Simmons last season. After Chambliss led Ole Miss to the College Football Playoff semifinals, the Rebels had national championship aspirations entering this season.

The Rebels delivered early on as they defeated Lane Kiffin and LSU 32-24. In that emotional victory, Chambliss completed 68% of his passes for 363 yards and two touchdowns. One week later, Ole Miss entered the Florida game looking to build upon that performance, but they eventually got trounced 52-28. However, Chambliss did complete 73% of his passes for 298 yards and one touchdown. Chambliss also added two scores on the ground.

Since the Florida game, Chambliss has led the Rebels to back-to-back victories over Vanderbilt and Missouri. In these two wins, he has passed for over 400 yards and six touchdowns. Chambliss has also rushed for two touchdowns over this two-game stretch.

Meanwhile, Arch has struggled in every game this season outside of the Texas State game. He did manage to lead the Longhorns to victory over Ohio State, but in that game, he completed just 62% of his passes for 195 yards with one touchdown and one interception. In his previous four games, Arch has thrown for less than 200 yards twice, completed 61% or less of his passes twice, and he has thrown three interceptions.

Kewan Lacy listed as probable on the SEC Student-Athlete Availability Report

Kewan Lacy being listed as probable is another reason why Ole Miss should be favored. When he is fully healthy, he is one of the top running backs in the country. This also in turn makes the combination of Lacy and Chambliss being one of the best duos in the entire country.

So far this season, Ole Miss has averaged 153 rushing yards per game, and with Lacy set to return, this number will be attainable versus Texas. In 2025, Lacy rushed for 1,567 yards and 24 touchdowns on 306 carries. Lacy was expected to come close to matching last year’s production this season, but Lacy had nagging injuries which hurt his production. Because of this, he failed to rush for 100 or more yards in four games this season. However, he has slowly regained his health, and we saw him finally eclipse the 100-yard mark versus Missouri last week.

His performance should give a boost to his confidence entering this week. This will also make the Rebels more difficult to defend against as the Longhorns will have to key in on the run while also attempting to stop the pass.

Colin Simmons listed as doubtful and Texas’ offense being inept

Colin Simmons being listed as doubtful is one reason why Ole Miss should be favored. The last reason is that Texas has struggled routinely on offense this season.

With doubt surrounding Simmons’ availability, Texas will lose a key piece on their defensive front. His pass rushing ability can almost single-handily keep Texas in any game. However, if he’s out, Ole Miss will be that much harder to stop in the passing if he is not fit to go.

Meanwhile, with all of the firepower that Texas has offense, their offense has struggled mightily this season. As we discussed above, Arch has struggled passing and pushing the ball downfield this season. While that is troublesome enough, the Longhorns have also struggled running the ball this season.

So far this season, Texas has rushed for 810 yards on 224 attempts. That comes out to 3.6 yards per rush and 135 yards per game. With the passing and rushing attacks being able to feed off of each other in today’s modern offense, this is a recipe for disaster.

Lastly, if that wasn’t bad enough, Texas is 64th in scoring offense while Ole Miss is 19th in this category.

Can Texas win this? The answer is absolutely given the talent the Longhorns have gathered over the past few seasons. But given what we have seen this season, Ole Miss should be the favorite entering this game.