Stock watch: How a month of football reshaped Texas’ remaining schedule

A week ago, the Florida Gators and the Mississippi State Bulldogs were the surprises on the remaining schedule for the No. 1 Texas Longhorns. Picked ninth and 15th in the SEC preseason media poll, both were unbeaten and ranked. On Saturday, Florida lost 45-17 at Missouri and Mississippi State lost 56-23 at home to Alabama.

Texas, 4-0 and No. 1, had the weekend off, and has eight regular-season games left. The measuring stick here is preseason expectations, not simply last week’s results, as one ugly Saturday can change a matchup without erasing a month of progress as we take stock of the eight games for the Longhorns that will define the season.

Oklahoma — October 10, Dallas

The Sooners opened at No. 10 in the AP poll and were picked seventh in the SEC. Now they are 2-2 and unranked, scoring just 23 points combined in losses at Michigan (17-10) and Georgia (41-13). The win between them was a 14-6 grind against New Mexico in Norman.

Quarterback John Mateer has six turnovers in his last three games. Brent Venables acknowledged considering a change against Georgia, then said last week, “John’s our starting quarterback.” But the backups are getting more practice work, and Venables has not ruled out using them against Texas. Instead of the top-10 contender
projected in August, Texas gets a team still searching for consistency on offense.

Stock: Down

Florida — October 17, Austin

Jon Sumrall’s first Florida team was picked ninth and started outside the AP poll. The Gators have gotten off to a strong start at 4-1 and No. 16, with a win at Auburn and a 52-28 rout of then-No. 4 Ole Miss.

Saturday showed how different the Gators look when they cannot run the football in a 45-17 rout by the Tigers in Columbia. A week after gaining 302 rushing yards, Florida managed just 42 yards on 25 carries at Missouri, including 13 yards on 12 attempts for star running back Jaden Baugh. Florida was also without receiver Vernell Brown III. “They played with physicality,” Sumrall said of the Tigers.

The Gators remain ahead of their preseason projection, but Missouri gave Texas a clear blueprint for how to beat Florida — bottle up Baugh and make Aaron Philo carry the offense.

Stock: Up

Ole Miss — October 24, Austin

Ole Miss opened at No. 9, was picked third in the SEC, and is still No. 9 at 3-1, with wins over then-No. 24 Louisville and then-No. 7 LSU. Same ranking, more reason to question the defense.

Before the Gators ran for 302 yards in a 52-28 win on September 26, the Rebels were allowing 159 rushing yards per game. Through four games, those averages are up to 194.8 rushing yards and 30.8 points allowed. After the loss, head coach Pete Golding said the bye offered a chance to reassess personnel: “We have some guys to look at to play better football.”

The wins still carry weight. The run defense is the weakness Texas gets to test.

Stock: Neutral

Mississippi State — October 31, Austin

Mississippi State was picked 15th, ahead of only Arkansas. Even after Saturday’s loss, it is 4-1 and 2-1 in the SEC, with comeback wins at South Carolina and over Missouri, the team that just beat Florida by 28.

Alabama exposed the gap that remains. The Tide scored two touchdowns in 71 seconds early and rolled from there 56-23. Breakout star quarterback Kamario Taylor, limited by a lower-leg injury from the Missouri game, threw two interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, lost a fumble and left in the fourth quarter. Standout running back Fluff Bothwell lasted one carry.

Jeff Lebby called Taylor day-to-day. State has an open date, visits LSU on October 17 ,and hosts Oklahoma on Octotber 24 before coming to Austin on Halloween. The stock is up, but the health of Taylor and Bothwell are major question marks for the Bulldogs.

Stock: Up

Missouri — November 7, Columbia

Missouri opened at No. 25 and was picked 10th in the SEC. A week ago, it surrendered a 24-17 fourth-quarter lead at Mississippi State, but is now back up to No. 14 at 4-1 after beating then-No. 8 Florida by 28 points, ending a nine-game losing streak against ranked opponents.

Quarterback Austin Simmons went 23-of-30 passing for 340 yards and two touchdowns, Jamal Roberts ran for 211 yards and three scores, and the defense held a rushing attack averaging 260 yards to 42 yards, even without starting edge rushers Darris Smith and Langden Kitchen.

That stunning demolition of previously red-hot Florida came at Faurot Field, where Texas heads next month. Columbia now looks like one of the harder stops left on the schedule.

Stock: Up

LSU — November 14, Baton Rouge

LSU opened at No. 11 and was picked fifth in the SEC. The Tigers are now No. 10 and 4-1 after Saturday’s 63-14 win over McNeese. The Tigers are the closest call on this list.

The case for a small bump — a 51-10 win over Clemson, a 35-6 rout of Texas A&M by holding Marcel Reed to 106 passing yards, and a competitive 32-24 loss at Ole Miss when both teams were in the top 10.

The concern is health. Linebacker Charles Ross II tore his ACL against A&M and is out for the season. Whit Weeks fractured his fibula in the same game; a reported six-week recovery target could put him back before Texas, but that is not a confirmed return date. Sam Leavitt played against McNeese despite a lingering hamstring injury.

For now, the performances outweigh the uncertainty — but only barely.

Stock: Neutral

Arkansas — November 21, Austin

Arkansas was picked last for Ryan Silverfield’s first season, so there was little room to fall. The Razorbacks are 2-3, with wins over North Alabama and Tulsa.

The losses keep looking alike — 43-10 at then-No. 20 Utah and 45-17 to No. 2 Georgia, followed by a 34-7 defeat at Texas A&M, a team that did not score a touchdown the week before. That’s an average defeat of almost 30 points against Power Four opponents.

The visit to Austin still looks like Texas’ most favorable remaining matchup.

Stock: Neutral

Texas A&M — November 27, College Station

No opponent’s slide is more jarring. The Aggies opened at No. 8 after an 11-2 season and a College Football Playoff berth, and SEC media picked them fourth.

They lost 31-21 at home to Kentucky while ranked No. 9, then lost 35-6 at LSU without a touchdown to fall out of the September 27 AP poll without a single vote. Saturday’s 34-7 win over Arkansas, with Reed running for 66 yards and a score, steadied them at 3-2 and 1-2 in the SEC.

Beating the team picked last stops the skid. It does not erase the distance between this team and its preseason expectations.

Stock: Down