SEC college football playoff outlook: Dissecting logjam of 2-loss teams in contested league

SEC college football playoff outlook: Dissecting logjam of 2-loss teams in contested league originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

If you're looking for some clarity on which teams are legitimate College Football Playoff threats inside the SEC, Week 8 made a mess of things. After Saturday, we now have multiple two-loss teams inside the conference that will be a mess to sort out.

On Saturday, No. 11 Tennessee suffered its second loss of the season to South Carolina on the road, and No. 4 Ole Miss lost 34-27 in a thriller to No. 19 Texas in Austin. No. 18 LSU improved to 6-2 with a 38-17 win over Auburn on the road, and No. 13 Alabama got a victory over Texas A&M, 31-20.

There are also two-loss teams in the SEC in Missouri, Florida and Georgia, which all had byes this week.

Here's an attempt at sorting out the logjam that is the SEC, which has multiple two-loss teams that appear to be in the hunt for the College Football Playoff after Week 8.

MORE: Bad Day for the Big 12: How bad losses by Texas Tech, BYU hurt conference's CFP outlook

SEC teams with 2 losses

No. 7 Ole Miss Rebels (5-2)

Ole Miss got its first signature win with a 32-24 victory over then-No. 7 LSU in Week 3. The Rebels also have ranked wins over Louisville and a 31-3 win over then-No. 13 Missouri last week.

Ole Miss' first loss came on the road against Florida, but the Gators were ranked No. 21 at the time and are back in the rankings after a win over Texas on the road last week. Ole Miss also defeated Vanderbilt on the road, 52-17.

Against Texas, the Rebels did come back from a 24-3 deficit at halftime and tied the game early in the fourth quarter. The Rebels even responded after going down 10 late, scoring a field goal with 1:22 left, and a recovered onside kick gave Trinidad Chambliss a chance at a Hail Mary that Texas held off. The committee won't fault Ole Miss for losing on the road too much, but the Rebels can't afford to stumble.

Ole Miss has just one ranked team remaining on its schedule, as it is set to play No. 5 Georgia on Nov. 7. Elsewhere in the SEC, Ole Miss draws Auburn and Mississippi State at home and goes on the road to play Oklahoma on Nov. 14. If the Rebels win out, a CFP bid is likely. Three losses, even against a very good team in Georgia, make it seem unlikely.

MORE:Why did NC State fire Dave Doeren?

No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2)

Alabama has a strong resume, with road wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State. The Tide also have conference wins over South Carolina and Texas A&M, including a 48-10 Week 1 win over East Carolina.

As for the losses, Alabama lost to No. 2 Georgia on a last-second field goal and fell 26-10 on the road to Tennessee last week. The committee likely won't fault the Tide for either of their losses. But Alabama cannot afford to lose to any of its remaining opponents: LSU in Baton Rouge on Nov. 7, Vanderbilt, Chattanooga or Auburn at home for the Iron Bowl.

If the Tide win on the road against LSU, it would almost guarantee a bid, assuming they win out.

No. 18 LSU Tigers (6-2)

LSU beat Clemson 58-10 in Week 1, and although Dabo Swinney's team wasn't ranked, the committee will value a big nonconference win like that. LSU also beat Louisiana Tech and McNeese State outside of the SEC.

As for the Tigers' conference wins, they have some solid ones, such as a 35-6 win over Texas A&M when the Aggies were ranked at the time and a win over then-No. 16 Mississippi State. On Saturday, LSU went on the road and beat Auburn, which just beat Georgia last week, 38-17.

LSU's losses don't look terrible. The first was on the road to Ole Miss, which the Tigers had a chance to beat late. The other was also on the road, against Kentucky, which looks like one of the best surprise teams in the SEC.

The Tigers have a tough remaining slate, featuring three straight ranked opponents: Alabama and Texas at home on Nov. 7 and 8, respectively, and a road trip to Tennessee on Nov. 21. LSU closes out the season against 3-4 Arkansas on the road.

MORE:Explaineing the chaotic, controversial and thrilling ending to UCF's upset of BYU

No. 19 Texas Longhorns (5-2)

Texas' CFP resume is a mess, to say the least. The Longhorns' best win came in Week 2, with a come-from-behind win over then-No. 1 Ohio State. Texas also defeated then-No. 14 Tennessee on the road 20-17, including non-conference wins over Texas State and UTSA.

The Longhorns' two losses are puzzling, both to unranked teams in Oklahoma and Florida at home. Texas' Arch Manning threw two interceptions against a struggling Sooners team. The next week, Texas lost at home to an unranked Florida which had lost back-to-back games to Missouri and South Carolina.

But with a huge 34-27 home win over a very good Ole Miss team, the Longhorns are still alive. Texas has remaining home conference games against unranked Mississippi State and Arkansas, and goes on the road to play No. 22 Missouri and No. 18 LSU next month. The Longhorns will end the regular season on the road against Texas A&M. While Texas would be in with two losses, the win over Ohio State earlier in the season might give Texas a case with three losses, depending on how the Buckeyes finish

No. 11 Tennessee Vols (6-2)

Tennessee's case took a hit on Saturday, as the Vols were upset 27-24 on the road against unranked South Carolina on Saturday. The Vols' only other loss came at home, a close 20-17 one to Texas in a game that Tennessee was very much in.

The Vols' biggest signature win came two weeks ago, beating then-No. 6 Alabama 26-10 at home. Tennessee also has wins over Georgia Tech and Arkansas on the road, as well as a conference win over Auburn.

The Vols have two ranked teams still to play, including at home vs. No. 7 Kentucky next week, and a home game against LSU on Nov. 21. Tennessee also plays at Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, but the Vols should be heavy favorites in both those games.
MORE: How bad Week 8 losses by Texas Tech, BYU impact Big 12's CFP outlook

No. 20 Florida Gators (5-2)

The Florida Gators are the most confusing team in the entire SEC. Florida burst into the CFP picture with its dominant 52-38 win over then-No. 4 Ole Miss at home in Week 4. The Gators then dropped back-to-back games on the road to Missouri and lost to a three-loss, unranked South Carolina team at home.

The Gators then went on the road last week and upset Texas, winning 27-24. Just how good this Florida team is will come down to how it does the rest of the season. The Gators biggest test is next week, taking on No. 5 Georgia in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.

Florida also has to go on the road to play Kentucky on Nov. 14. Florida then has remaining home conference games against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, and plays rival Florida State on the road to close out the regular season.

No. 22 Missouri Tigers (5-2)

Missouri might be the team least likely to make the field, thanks to what it's done so far and what it still has in front of it. The Tigers beat non-conference Kansas 38-21 in Week 2, and took down then-No. 8 Florida at home on Oct. 3.

The Tigers also beat Texas A&M 27-6 at home, with losses to ranked conference opponents in Mississippi State and Ole Miss.

Missouri has a brutal stretch next month, featuring games against No. 19 Texas, at No. 5 Georgia and vs. No. 12 Kentucky at home before a regular-season home finale against Oklahoma. However unlikely, the Tigers will likely be in the hunt if it makes it out of that stretch undefeated.

College Football Playoffs odds for SEC teams

(Odds listed via DraftKings after Ole Miss lost to Texas)

How many SEC teams have gotten into CFP each year

A look at the previous two 12-team fields:

Last season was the one year in which the expanded CFP had a bit of controversy. The committee gave a bid to three-loss Alabama, despite the Tide getting pummeled by Georgia 28-7 in the SEC title game. The committee opted to give the Tide a bid to reward them for making a conference title game. As a result, two-loss Notre Dame, which is independent and thus did not play in a conference title game, did not get a bid.

All other teams listed had just two losses and still made the field.

Of course, the CFP field usually works itself out, and the SEC will likely be a bloodbath over the next few weeks. But depending on how things shake out, it could be quite interesting for the committee to try to determine which two-loss SEC teams are worthy of bids.