ROUNDTABLE: Northwestern football vs. No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes

Northwestern football is in a pivotal moment. Coming off a loss to Oregon and now without their starting QB, the ‘Cats have a lot to prove.

Tonight, Northwestern (6-2, 3-2 B1G) looks to sneak back into the AP poll and keep its College Football Playoff chances alive while welcoming No. 21 Iowa (6-2, 2-2 B1G) for a nighttime showdown in Ryan Field.

Here’s how Inside NU is feeling.

Charlie Jacobs (23-13 Iowa)

I had something written and just completely scrapped it. Aidan Chiles is unlikely to play against Iowa, which feels like the nail in the coffin before this game even begins. Nicco Marchiol does have collegiate experience, including seven starts, but Iowa’s defense was already going to be enough of a problem for Chiles, let alone a backup QB.

Whitley Williams (21-17 Northwestern)

The stakes are high, and a College Football Playoff berth is on the line.

The Northwestern Wildcats will be facing the Iowa Hawkeyes under the lights in a critical Big Ten showdown. The Iowa Hawkeyes have been a threat all year, with notable wins against Washington and Michigan on the road. Both teams are 6-2 (3-2 Big Ten).

The Hawkeyes play disciplined, mistake-free football. Quarterback Hank Brown completed 20 of 24 passes (83%) against Wisconsin last week, while the Hawkeyes committed just two penalties for 10 yards. Wide receivers Tony Diaz and DJ Vonnahme headline Iowa’s offensive weapons.

Northwestern wins games when they establish the run and win the time of possession.

Wildcats quarterback Aidan Chiles is expected to miss the game after getting banged up against one of the nation’s top defenses.

West Virginia transfer quarterback Nicco Marchiol will likely get the nod. Marchiol has been marked as the quintessential next man up his entire collegiate career. He proved his ability to deliver under pressure at West Virginia, leading the Mountaineers to two victories in one of college football’s most heated rivalries, the Backyard Brawl against Pitt. Don’t count him out.

The defense will have to force Brown into third-and-long situations, a weakness in Iowa’s offense. According to ESPN, the Hawkeyes convert just 20% of their third-down attempts when facing nine yards or more.

The Cats’ pass rush has cracks, but the anticipated return of Robert Fitzgerald could provide a remedy. This physical Big Ten battle will be tight, with the Wildcats edging out the Hawkeyes if they fire on all cylinders.

Adam Sutro (20-17 Northwestern)

Blurb: The biggest thing I have to say about this game is that Nicco Marchiol is no scrub.

The 6-foot-2 redshirt junior was a four-star quarterback coming out of Hamilton High School in Chandler, Arizona, and has lots of college experience, with 23 game appearances and plenty of starts. He was West Virginia’s starting quarterback for four games last season until he suffered a foot injury in September that ended his season, and he was playing okay in the role, with a 67.3% completion percentage and a 200+ yard passing performance against Robert Morris.

That’s not to say that Northwestern’s offense is going to be pretty on Saturday night — compared to the Kelly-Chiles offensive firepower we’ve gotten used to seeing on a weekly basis, the ‘Cats’ scheme is going to look simplified and unimpressive against the Hawkeyes.

But I don’t think NU’s offense has to be at full blast to outscore Iowa. The Hawkeyes’ offense has been measly all year, ranked 10th in the Big Ten in yards per game, and Northwestern is getting back the captain of its defense — Robert Fitzgerald — and potentially will have Jon Jon Stevens back as well to reinforce its secondary.

I don’t think Northwestern will beat Ohio State, and I don’t like its odds on the road against Minnesota, but something tells me that Marchiol is going to fire up and get the job done tonight in a low-scoring battle.

Donovan West (13-10 Iowa)

Iowa scored 16 points against Iowa State. The Hawkeyes scored 20 points against Michigan, 14 against Ohio State and 10 against Minnesota. Once again, Iowa’s success is based almost entirely on its defense; the Hawkeyes have won six games this year thanks to allowing the fewest amount of points in the Big Ten. It’ll almost certainly be a close, low-scoring game, putting the pressure on Northwestern’s offense to perform in the clutch.

This tense, late-game environment is why I’m picking against the ‘Cats. I don’t think Nicco Marchiol is ready to win a big game in his first start of the year. Iowa has the best rush defense in the Big Ten, so Marchiol will be forced to make plays with his arm; I’m not betting on a kid I haven’t seen perform against one of the best defenses in the country. The Wildcat Wall will keep the ‘Cats in the game, but Iowa will walk away from the New Ryan Field with another win under its belt and its eyes set on the College Football Playoff.

Kussh Mital (27-10 Iowa)

Northwestern blew it last week. The defense got torched up and down the field. The offense became stagnant after half. The vibes were awful.

Now, with starting quarterback Aidan Chiles out, there is very little to get excited about with this Northwestern team.

I expect Iowa to have a very similar showing as they did last week against Wisconsin. Northwestern’s defense has struggled mightily against P4 competition, and I don’t expect that to change. Iowa’s defense will take advantage of Chile’s absence by making backup quarterback Nicco Marchiol’s life incredibly difficult. And other than some brilliance from Chip Kelly, I don’t expect the offense to have much in the tank, especially with the awful performance of the run game last week.

It is a bitter way for Northwestern’s CFP hopes to fizzle away.