Ohio State’s only realistic playoff path runs through Indianapolis

Ohio State has never been ranked this low by the College Football Playoff committee.

The Buckeyes fell from No. 12 to No. 20 in Tuesday’s second CFP rankings after losing to Oregon, the lowest ranking Ohio State has ever received since the committee started releasing rankings in 2014. It’s also the Buckeyes’ lowest spot in the AP and Coaches polls since 2014, the week after the home loss to Virginia Tech.

So where does that leave Ohio State’s playoff hopes? I’ll be honest. I don’t think the Buckeyes are making the playoff this year.

Their chances are a long shot, but there is one path, and it’s actually a little more realistic than some people might think.

Why 9-3 probably isn’t enough

The most obvious path is winning out.

Ohio State has Northwestern, at Nebraska and Michigan left. Win all three, and the Buckeyes finish 9-3. The problem is that 9-3 doesn’t do much for this resume.

None of Ohio State’s remaining opponents are ranked in the CFP top 25, so there’s no chance for a big win to impress the committee. The Buckeyes would still be sitting behind a long list of two loss teams, and their three losses, at Texas, at USC and at home against Oregon, came against teams ranked ahead of them.

Look at the teams between Ohio State and the edge of the 12-team field. Kentucky, Texas Tech, Wake Forest, Houston, Iowa, Oregon, South Carolina, USC and Ole Miss. Most of them have fewer losses, and two of them beat Ohio State.

Even if several of those teams lose, the Buckeyes would need a ton of chaos to climb from No. 20 into an at-large spot without a quality win left on the schedule.

ESPN’s Football Power Index is more optimistic, giving Ohio State a 42.6% chance to make the playoff. I don’t buy it though.

Unless something crazy happens, a 9-3 Ohio State is probably gonna be watching the playoff from home.

The Big Ten title game is the only real path

That’s why I think Ohio State’s best path, and honestly their only one, is to get to the Big Ten Championship Game and win it.

Right now, the Big Ten standings don’t look great. UCLA is 9-0 and 6-0 in conference play, Indiana is 8-1 and 5-1, while USC and Oregon are both 4-2, just like Ohio State.

The Buckeyes are also behind in the tiebreakers against USC and Oregon, since they lost to both.

But this season has been anything but predictable, and things could get crazy.

Here’s what Ohio State would need to make the Conference Championship Game:

• Win out — That gets the Buckeyes to 7-2 in conference play.

• Indiana loses at least once more — Ohio State beat Indiana in Bloomington, so if the Hoosiers fall to 7-2 in the Big Ten, the Buckeyes would own the head-to-head tiebreaker in a two-way tie.
• USC and Oregon both lose at least once more — Since both beat Ohio State, the Buckeyes would need to finish ahead of them outright. USC and Indiana play each other this week as well, so at least one of these three things will happen.
• UCLA wins out, or stumbles too — If UCLA keeps winning, they take one spot in Indianapolis. Ohio State would be competing for the other.

That’s a lot of moving parts, and multi team ties could get complicated, but it isn’t impossible.

USC has already lost to Wisconsin, Oregon has lost to UCLA and Illinois this season, and Indiana’s offense hasn’t looked the same since Ohio State held them to 15 points in October. One or two upsets could completely change the race.

If Ohio State gets to Indianapolis and can win the final Big Ten Championship, they wouldn’t need the committee’s approval to enter the playoff.

What Ohio State can control

The frustrating part is that Ohio State can’t control most of this. They need to win out, then hope Indiana, USC and Oregon all slip up. But the Buckeyes can at least give themselves a chance.

That starts with fixing the defense, which has allowed 71 points over the last two games. It means Luke Fahey continuing to grow, Jeremiah Smith staying the focal point and the Buckeyes beating Michigan for a second straight year.

Even if the playoff doesn’t happen, those things matter.

There’s still plenty to play for. Smith is 31 yards from becoming the Big Ten’s all-time leading receiver. Beating Michigan would salvage a lot. A strong finish would build momentum heading into 2027, when Julian Sayin may potentially be back.

But if you’re asking me whether Ohio State makes the playoff this year, my answer is unfortunately no. If it does happen though, it’ll almost certainly be because the Buckeyes found a way to Indianapolis and won the Big Ten.

Anything less, and this season likely will end without a playoff berth.