Ohio State-Indiana keys to victory and how showdown impacts Big Ten, CFP race

Something very strange happened 666 days ago this Saturday: Indiana lost a football game.

What was once old hat — the Hoosiers spent about a century as the Big Ten’s favorite homecoming opponent — has become one of the rarest events in the Power Four.

After sweeping through last season to capture the first national championship in program history, the No. 4 Hoosiers are still perfect at the midway point after last weekend’s comeback win against Nebraska.

Beginning on the heels of a loss to Notre Dame in the opening round of the 2024 College Football Playoff, this 22-game winning streak is tied for the second-longest in the Big Ten since 1950. Ohio State won 24 games in a row from 2012-13 and 22 in a row from 1967-69.

Standing in the way of the modern Big Ten record are the No. 5 Buckeyes themselves. Indiana will host OSU this weekend in the second meeting in this newfound rivalry in less than a year, following the Hoosiers’ 13-10 win in last December’s conference championship game.

“The good thing is some of these guys have played against Indiana before and know how good these guys are and what comes with it,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said. “They'll have our attention for sure."

Just how good is Indiana, really?

A non-conference loss to No. 6 Texas dropped the Buckeyes in the US LBM Coaches Poll but didn’t damage their reputation; OSU is about a field goal favorite in Bloomington and might be the favorite for the national championship if the playoff started today.

That loss to the Longhorns continues to loom over the Buckeyes’ season. They only need to look back at last season to see how this type of non-conference result can have a lingering effect on the postseason picture: Texas lost another two games in a very tough SEC and fell short of an at-large playoff appearance.

Another IU win would change the perception of both teams, establish a clear Big Ten favorite heading into the second half of the regular season and potentially reestablish the Hoosiers as the team to beat for the national championship. No Big Ten team since World War II has won back-to-back unshared national titles.

“You got an opponent that's coming in here that is used to winning and winning championships and is as strong a brand as there is in America,” said Indiana coach Curt Cignetti.

Before that, though, the matchup will settle one of the defining questions of this season to date: While still undefeated, just how good is Indiana, really?

“Two really good teams,” Cignetti said. “Great team we're playing. Not sure how good we are yet.

“So we're a team that's developing still. I'm sure they would say the same thing about their team. You know, it ought to be a great environment.”

The four factors that will decide Indiana vs Ohio State

Several issues have contributed to a sense of uncertainty about whether Indiana is good enough to repeat or simply good enough to get back into the playoff for the third year in a row.

That the team’s floor seems to be an at-large playoff berth speaks to the incredible progress made under Cignetti. However, the Hoosiers head into Saturday as less of a sure thing than OSU because of these four factors:

• An easier schedule that has yet to include a ranked opponent;
• The performance of former TCU quarterback transfer Joh Hoover, who has avoided mistakes but come up short of the impossibly high standard set by last year’s Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza;
• A notable drop in turnover margin, a bigger concern against an elite opponent such as the Buckeyes;
• And the play of a secondary that has remained solid but has struggled tackling in space and limiting the impact of athletic quarterbacks.

Despite these potential concerns, IU remains a “challenge for all of us,” Day said.

“You have to stay focused for 60 minutes. Take a play off, and these guys will hurt you. We can't do that.

“From the jump, we have to be locked in with great concentration and sustain that for the entire game. If we don't, they'll hurt us, and they have.”

Questions linger over Indiana’s schedule and QB play

The Hoosiers mostly cruised through a non-conference slate of North Texas, Howard and Western Kentucky and routed Rutgers on the road. IU struggled at times but still put away Northwestern and Nebraska, two solid Big Ten teams that are still steps off the pace set by the league’s best.

Overall, the Hoosiers’ strength of schedule ranks 72nd nationally, according to the Sagarin Ratings. In comparison, the Buckeyes have already faced two ranked teams on the road in Texas and No. 16 Iowa.

After developing a reputation as a high-volume and highly productive but error-prone passer with the Horned Frogs, Hoover has yet to throw an interception in 129 attempts. He’s also averaging 10.6 yards per pass, completing 68.2% of his attempts and is one of two Power Four quarterbacks with more than nine touchdowns without an interception, along with Miami’s Darian Mensah.

But Hoover has struggled at times with his timing and accuracy downfield, even if he’s also improved with increased experience in the offensive scheme. Last week in Lincoln, Hoover tossed two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to spark the comeback.

Those two scores came via explosive gains: a 75-yard score on the first snap of one possession and a 44-yard touchdown to cap a five-play drive. That highlights the Hoosiers’ struggles to sustain possessions. For example, the offense ranks 14th nationally in scoring at 40.2 points per game but is tied for 59th in first downs per game.

“It just comes down to execution,” Hoover said on Saturday. “We got into rhythm in the second half, started to sustain some drives and knew we could punch it in and score touchdowns. That’s what we did.”

Indiana’s turnover margin and defending Jeremiah Smith

A year ago, IU had 30 takeaways and led the Bowl Subdivision with a plus-22 turnover margin. Combined with one of the nation’s top offenses, this ability to steal extra possessions made them almost impossible to beat. The Hoosiers have four takeaways through six games, more than only five other Power Four teams.

They’ve offset that decline by committing just one turnover, tied with No. 3 Notre Dame and New Mexico for the fewest in the FBS. That level of ball control is not sustainable, however.

While the secondary has been passable — IU ranks 40th nationally in yards allowed per game and 47th in yards per attempt — the defense has struggled with quarterbacks who can tuck and run, as in those narrow wins against the Northwestern and Nebraska. .

That won’t be as much of an issue when facing OSU quarterback Julian Sayin, who is more of a pocket passer. Still, Sayin is averaging an FBS-best 10.9 yards per attempt with 17 touchdowns and two interceptions.

And then there’s Jeremiah Smith, the presumptive Heisman Trophy favorite after pulling down 48 catches for 916 yards and 11 touchdowns at the midseason mark.

While the OSU passing game is almost completely reliant on Smith’s brilliance, the same might be said of the Hoosiers and receivers Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker, who have combined for 1,057 of the team’s 1,448 total receiving yards. From the Buckeyes’ perspective, slowing down that pair is the key to stopping Indiana’s offense.

“He's taken it up a notch, without question,” Cignetti said of Smith. "I think he has nine touchdown catches in the last three, four games. You know, there is no one like him right now playing at this level.

“We got two really good ones. He's a freak. We're going to have to do a great job on him.”

Whether the Hoosiers can play the game on their terms — as they did last December — will be Saturday’s deciding factor. If so, IU will cement its place as the team to beat in the Big Ten and a potentially immovable force on the march for conference and FBS history.

“I'm glad we're playing at home. We really need our crowd to be loud and very involved. We got to give them reasons to be,” said Cignetti.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ohio State-Indiana keys to victory and how showdown impacts Big Ten, CFP race