Mountain West & Pac-12 Bowl Projections Week 9: Projections are shaken up this week

The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.

Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it’s difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.

For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity’s sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.

For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it’s a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, it’s possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won’t entertain that possibility, at least not to start.

Clear as mud? Good. For what it’s worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes clearer, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Bowl Affiliation Key

Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ

Hawaii Bowl: MW #2

Arizona Bowl: MW #3

New Mexico Bowl: MW #4

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup

Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl

Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ

Hawaii Bowl: Pac-12 #2

ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #3

ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #4

Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams

ESPN Bowl: Backup bowl

College Football Playoff: Highest-ranked G6 team

Mike

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: Air Force

New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl:

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

Minor changes, but distinctive ones. I flipped Wyoming and UNLV. The Cowboys were on a bye, but they have been playing some strong football. Conversely, the Rebels seems like a different team pretty much every week, handling North Dakota State well and then let Northern Illinois hanging around this week. But those look like the 5 MW bowl teams. For the Pac-12, the top four teams played one another and the top two teams struggled alot. I kept Boise State and Oregon State in their spots, despite the Beavers losing, but the Bulldogs move up a spot. The Bobcats had a tough loss but they have been too inconsistent this season to be in a higher spot.

Zach

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: N/A

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

Boise State narrowly stays on top with Oregon State’s loss to Fresno State and New Mexico also struggling against San Jose State. But things might change with UTSA and New Mexico lurking and the injury to Maddux Madsen. Things in the PAC-12 could get really interesting if Texas State can upset Oregon State this weekend.

Jeff

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: UNLV

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wyoming

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: N/A

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

Both Boise State and New Mexico hang on for wins and appear in the top 25. New Mexico hangs on for a win despite turnovers. Both teams had their weaknesses exposed. Can other teams take advantage of it? NDSU, Air Force and Wyoming look primed to go bowling, or have already clinched. The rest of the conference won’t make it. Boise State and played Texas State in the game of the year in the Pac-12. Oregon State may be out of the CFP bowl consideration with their third loss. Conversely, Fresno State picked up a good win. Hope the Bobcats can get to six wins. They would be fun to watch on a bowl game.

Vic

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: Wyoming

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV

Cactus Bowl: San Jose State

Poinsettia Bowl: Fresno State

Hawaii Bowl: Oregon State

ESPN Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: N/A

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

Dan

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: UNLV

New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Air Force

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: N/A

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

Winners of the Week: New Mexico- Ranked! First time in history of the program for the AP Poll. Debated putting them in the CFP slot…but the jury may still be out for me on that one. At least the Lobos conquered their SJSU woes and won in Cali. Losers of the Week: Colorado State-a bad loss to a struggling Utah State team. They’ve now lost the last 3 of 4. CSU HC Jim Mora went full-on seeing red after the loss as well. I’m not sure that anger is going to be productive, rather destructive, with No. 20 Boise coming to town next.