Mountain West & Pac-12 Bowl Projections Week 7: Wyoming, SDSU enter the discussion.

The time has come. The 2026 season is upon us. We are past the time of watch lists and preseason awards and have entered the time of bowl projections. Our team at Mountain West Connection will be releasing our bowl projections each week. This season, both Mountain West and Pac-12 projections will be included in the same post. Our first round of projections are below and will likely change as the season progresses. Leave your own thoughts in the comments.

Note that bowl tie-ins are extremely messy this year, more than usual. Due to that, it’s difficult to even have consistency with the ranking order of bowl games.

For Mountain West Bowls, we will designate the Potato Bowl as the MW Champion, although the champ could go to one of six different bowl games. But for simplicity’s sake, whoever you see in the Potato Bowl is who a writer thinks will be the Mountain West Champ, although we recognize that may not necessarily be the case when the time comes.

For Pac-12 teams, the legacy teams are still locked into the Pac-12 bowl tie-ins. The current champion will be in the Poinsettia Bowl, but after that, it’s a lot of unknown. We will also list the Sun Bowl, as that has traditionally be the last Pac-12 bowl to select and therefore most likely to have a new Pac team. Otherwise, back-up bowls will likely host many of the current Pac-12 teams. And if that wasn’t confusing enough, it’s possible that ESPN could put current Pac-12/old Mountain West teams in MW-affiliated bowls that ESPN owns. However, we won’t entertain that possibility, at least not to start.

Clear as mud? Good. For what it’s worth, we are providing a bowl tie-in key in this post. While it may not be completely accurate, it at least provides a picture of how we are arriving at some of our bowl projections. And as the picture becomes clearer, we will update our explanation key. If you find any info, feel free to let us know in the comments.

Bowl Affiliation Key

Potato Bowl: (Potential) Designated MW Champ

Hawaii Bowl: MW #2

Arizona Bowl: MW #3

New Mexico Bowl: MW #4

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: #1 MW backup

Cactus Bowl: Backup bowl

Poinsettia Bowl: Pac-12 champ

Hawaii Bowl: Pac-12 #2

ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #3

ESPN Bowl: Pac-12 #4

Sun Bowl: Last option for legacy Pac-12 teams

ESPN Bowl: Backup bowl

College Football Playoff: Highest-ranked G6 team

Mike

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: Air Force

New Mexico Bowl: UNLV

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: San Jose State

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl:

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

The Mountain West has a minor shakeup, with North Dakota State taking the 2nd spot and Air Force moving up after beating UNLV. The Rebels drop a few spots. Five bowl teams seem pretty likely at this point, and the Bison are the first to clinch a bowl berth. On the Pac-12 side of things, I flipped Texas State and Fresno State, with the Bulldogs dropping two in a row, and it will likely be three in a row next week. I considered putting the Aztecs back in, but I am holding off on that for now.

Zach

Potato Bowl: North Dakota State

Hawaii Bowl: New Mexico

Arizona Bowl: North Dakota State

New Mexico Bowl: Air Force

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV

Cactus Bowl: Wyoming

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: San Diego State

ESPN Bowl: Fresno State

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

A bit of movement after this week’s games. I think North Dakota State is going to beat New Mexico this weekend to take over control of the Mountain West, and Wyoming has two wins left on their schedule to get them to bowl eligibility.

Jeff

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: Air Force

New Mexico Bowl: San Jose State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Texas State

ESPN Bowl: San Diego State

ESPN Bowl: N/A

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

It seems like the same five, with possibly SJSU dropping and Wyoming climbing. New Mexico is the team to beat in the Mountain West, and Air Force looks strong as well. Boise State still looks like a playoff team, but they’ll have to go through Oregon State, which continues to impress. Texas State had a statement game vs. Colorado State and might be a dark horse in the conference race. Fresno dropped a game to SDSU, so the Aztecs climb on that account.

Dan

Potato Bowl: New Mexico

Hawaii Bowl: North Dakota State

Arizona Bowl: Air Force

New Mexico Bowl: UNLV

Guaranteed Rate Bowl: San Jose State

Cactus Bowl: N/A

Poinsettia Bowl: Oregon State

Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State

ESPN Bowl: San Diego State

ESPN Bowl: Texas State

Sun Bowl: N/A

ESPN Bowl: N/A

College Football Playoff: Boise State

Winners of the Week: Air Force- No QB1, No Problem. Without Szarka, the Falcons still handled UNLV in a 10-point victory to move to 5-1, one game from bowl-bound. San Diego State- It hasn’t been the season the Aztecs envisioned, but a bright spot showed itself on Saturday. SDSU took down Fresno St in upset fashion in a 26-23 thriller. Losers of the Week: A month ago, I wrote about CSU’s offense and the potential it had, sitting at 2-0. Now, in October, the only thing saving the Rams is if they stick some of those offensive weapons on defense. CSU allowed 66 points to Texas State, their third straight game allowing 56 points or more. Woof. Hawaii- a major upset over the Lobos could have put the wheels back on the wagon for Timmy Chang and Co. In the first half on the island, the matchup had the makings of a Warriors win, leading 10-0 at half. But in fitting fashion for their season, the Lobos went on to score 21 unanswered and escape the upset bid, in another “What If” for Hawaii as they are now 1-6.